Super Tuesday Super Predictions Thread (and Closing Times)

It’s game day! And at Swing State Project, that means we want to hear your best guess on what’s going to happen tonight. Can Bill Halter complete the last-minute surge and overtake Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas Senate runoff? Is Sue Lowden’s goose cooked, or can she unscramble herself in time to hold off Sharron Angle? Will the attempts to slime Nikki Haley in South Carolina backfire, as the polls seem to show? Will the people of Maine at some point wake up and realize there’s a gubernatorial primary today? And most important of all, will Orly Taitz be the GOP’s next Secretary of State nominee in the nation’s largest state?

There’s also about eleventy-zillion other races worth following tonight; check out our election preview from yesterday for more information.

If you throw in the special election in GA-09, we’re watching nearly one-quarter of all of the states tonight. Here’s the list of closing times (all listed in Eastern Time):

Georgia 7:00

South Carolina 07:00

Virginia 07:00

Maine 08:00

New Jersey 08:00

Arkansas 08:30

South Dakota 08:00 /09:00

Iowa 10:00

Montana 10:00

Nevada 10:00

California 11:00

North Dakota 10:00 /11:00

We’ll post results links later in the day, but if you know of any good places for results, please post those in the comments too. Thanks!

UPDATE: We don’t like to give away babka for complicated election nights where there are hundreds of moving pieces (takes too long to calculate a winner), but we know that everyone loves babka. So, here’s the contest for tonight: pick the winner and percentages in the AR-Sen runoff. Sound simple enough? Well, we need you to specify the exact percentage for each — down to the tenths of a percentage point. We don’t want no stinkin’ ties.

UPDATE: While we’re enjoying the influx of AR-Sen predictions, please don’t limit yourselves; feel free to offer your predictions on any other babka-free race that interests you as well!

111 thoughts on “Super Tuesday Super Predictions Thread (and Closing Times)”

  1. I don’t think I’ve participated in these contests before, mainly because I’m awful with picking percentages, but, here we go:

    Lincoln – 51.2%

    Halter – 48.8%

  2. But as a native of Garland County, here we go.

    Halter: 53.4%

    Lincoln: 46.6%

    All my family in Garland and Montgomery County are going to vote today for Halter 😀

  3. I’m glad North Dakota doesn’t have anything really worth watching. There’s only one judge, one state house and Pomeroy’s opponent contested.

    Make it simple:

    Halter: 57.5

    Lincoln: 42.5

  4. AR-Sen

    Halter 52.4

    Lincoln 47.6

    CA-Sen

    Fiorina 56%

    DeVore 22%

    Campbell 22%

    SC-Gov

    Haley: 50% (plus 1, enough to avoid runoff)

    Garrett: 26%

    McMaster: 17%

    Bauer: 7%

    NV-Sen

    Tarkanian: 35%

    Angle: 35%

    Lowden: 26%

    Thats my predictions for the races that interest me.

  5. Halter – 52.3%

    Lincoln – 47.7%

    In other results, Nikki Haley wins with over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff.  Danny Tarkanian shocks everybody to win the NV-Sen primary as the lesser of the three evils.  Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina steamroll to victory in California, partly sealing both of their fates in November as the “duel CEO’s” angle gets played up.  Also in Arkansas, Elliot defeats Wills in AR-2, killing Dem chances of holding that seat, and Woolridge defeats Causey in AR-1, giving us a likely conserva-dem win in November.  In IA-3, I have a feeling that state senator Brad Zaun will pull off an upset to face Leonard Boswell.  

  6. AR-Sen

    Halter – 52.6

    Lincoln – 47.4

    AR-01

    Causey – 51

    Wooldridge – 49

    AR-02

    Elliott – 58

    Wills – 42

    AR-03

    Bledsoe – 54

    Womack – 46

    SoS

    O’Brien – 59

    Wilcox – 41

    Land Commissioner

    Davenport – 51

    Bryant – 49

  7. Dale Peterson – 67%

    Bill Halter – 20%

    Blanche Lincoln – 13%

    Because he also gives a rrrrrip about Arkansas!

  8. Halter 54.7

    Lincoln 45.3

    Halter winner, but with the whole “county of 80,000 people backing Halter having only 2 polling places” thing and the possible strength of Lincoln’s machine (though I do think the unions will do a better job of GOTV) I don’t feel comfortable putting Halter any higher, unfortunately.

  9. AR-Sen

    Halter 55.7

    Lincoln 44.3

    SC-04

    Gowdy 42

    Inglis 36

    Others 22

    SC-Gov (R)

    Haley 52

    McMaster 26

    Barrett 13

    Bauer 9

    SC-Gov (D)

    Sheheen 48

    Rex 40

    Ford 12

    VA-02

    Loyola 39

    Rigell 27

    Mizusawa 15

    Others 19

    VA-05

    Hurt 55

    Teabaggers 45

    GA-09

    Hawkins 55

    Graves 45

    CA-Sen

    Fiorina 48

    DeVore 27

    Campbell 22

    Others 3

    CA-Gov

    Whitman 52

    Poizner 44

    Others 4

    CA-11

    Harmer 45

    Emken 25

    Amador 22

    Goehring 8

    CA-19 (R)

    Denham 37

    Patterson 34

    Pombo 26

    Westerlund 3

    CA-19 (D)

    Goodwin 54

    Marsden 46

    CA-33

    Karen Bass 65

    Others 35

    CA-36

    Harman 56

    Winograd 44

    CA-42

    Gary Oak Miller 51

    Ash Ketchum Liberatore 45

    Others 4

    CA-45

    Bono Mack 68

    Thibodeau 32

    CA-47

    Tran 37

    Smith 35

    Nguyen 28

    CA-50

    Busby 54

    Emblem 46

    NV-Sen

    Angle 37

    Tarkanian 33

    Lowden 27

    Other/None 3

    NV-Gov

    Sandoval 53

    Gibbons 38

    Montandon 6

    Other/None 3

    ok this is already getting way too long. more later, maybe.  

  10. AR-SEN: Halter-52.8

                   Lincoln-47.2

    NV-SEN: Angle-35

                    Tark-30

                    Lowden-28

                    others-5

                     None-2

  11. I refuse to make an AR prediction because I don’t want to jinx Halter.

    I vote in SC.  I predict Haley will win outright and have a huge bounce in the first post primary polls.  Everyone is rooting for her because of the bad things people have tried to do to her.  But guys, c’mon, you’re rooting for a Palin endorsee.  I really hope Sheheen make voters come back to their senses.

    I’m going out on a limb and say that Sheheen will win outright in the SC-Gov dem primary.  He has all the momentum.  I wish him the best of luck against Haley.

  12. Arkansas

    Halter: 54.2

    Lincoln: 45.8

    CA-Sen (R)

    Fiorina: 46

    Campbell: 31

    DeVore: 20

    Disappointing for Campbell. He’s a really thoughtful guy, and would have made a good addition to the Senate (though maybe not instead of Boxer)

    CA-Gov (R)

    Whitman: 62

    Poizner: 36

    SC-Gov (D)

    Shaheen: 58

    Rex: 42

    SC-Gov (R)

    Haley: 41

    McMaster: 24

    Barrett: 21

    Bauer: 14



    SC-4 (R)


    Gowdy: 42

    Inglis: 40

    ME-Gov (D)

    Libby Mitchell wins with 23%…lowest I can remember since David Davis beat Phil Roe in the TN-01 primary in 2006.  

  13. Lincoln 51.3

    Halter 48.7

    I still think Halter will win, but most of y’all are choosing Halter. Therefore, in case Lincoln surprises everyone, I’ll have a greater chance of actually winning.

  14. AR-Sen for the babka:

    Halter – 54.8%

    Lincoln – 45.2%

    I think Halter could win bigger (~58%, if Lincoln’s supporters aren’t motivated), but I’ve also got a nasty pessimistic streak that says Lincoln wins in a squeaker. So I’m splitting the difference.

    I started trying to do predictions for every other race in the SSP preview, but since I don’t actually know anything, they were all shots in the dark. So, general predictions: anti-establishment trend continues, GOP picks crazy conservatives.

  15. For Arkansas I’ll predict

    Halter 52.0%

    Lincoln 48.0%

    No one has predicted it yet. I wanted a somewhat bigger margin… but, seems close enough.

    Sue Lowden scrambled herself. I say Angle wins with about 35% of the vote to Lowden and Tarkanian each at about 30%.

    Nikki Haley will win and then have to quit before the runoff when the extramarital affair allegations are proven. I predict the nominee will ultimately be Henry McMaster who will get about 25% to her 40%.

    The Maine elections will have about 10% turnout and will be decided by just a few hundred votes.

    Orly Taitz will be GOP SoS nominee in CA.

    These predictions are pure guesswork and I have no reason to believe they will be at all accurate.

  16. Halter by basically 3: Halter 51.4 – Lincoln 48.6

    ALSO

    * Haley gets 45-48% of vote but faces runoff, prob agst McMaster

    * Branstad by < 18

    * Harman over Winograd by 15-20

  17. Tarkanian will pull a Kryzan/Deeds and get enough support from voters turned off by the flame war to surge into first.

    Something on the lines of:

    Tarkanian: 40

    Angle: 35

    Lowden: 25

    CA prop 15 loses narrowly as voters see through the PG&E smokescreen

    And my tradition WAG for the babka

    Halter 53.71

    Lincoln 46.29

  18. AR-Sen

    Halter – 52.8%

    Lincoln – 47.2%

    CA-Gov (R)

    Whitman – 63.2%

    Poizner – 36.8%

    CA-Sen (R)

    Fiorina –  46%

    Campbell – 33%

    DeVore – 21%

    NV-Sen (R)

    Angle – 45%

    Lowden – 38%

    Tarkanian – 17%

  19. i finished school last friday.  anyhow:

    i’m going to be very comprehensive

    AR-Sen: I’m a pessimist, and it’s not like we’ll hold this seat anyways.  52.6-47.4 Lincoln

    AR-1: Wooldridge 59-41, sadly

    AR-2: Wills 63-37

    AR-3: Womack 52-48

    CA-Gov: 64-36 Whitman, 91-9 Brown

    CA-Sen: 45-28-27 Fiorina-Campbell-DeVore

    CA-19: 34-32-24-10(others) Patterson-Denham-Pombo

    CA-36: 64-36 Harman

    CA-42: 72% for Miller

    GA-9: 61-39 Hawkins

    IA-Gov: 41-36-23 Branstad/VanderPlaats/Roberts

    IA-3: Nobody over 35%

    ME-Gov: Blank ballots win both sides

    NJ-3: 57% for Runyan

    NJ-7: 76% for Lance

    NV-Sen: 32-31-26-11(others/none)Angle/Tarkanian/Lowden

    NV-Gov: 58-42 Sandoval

    SC-Gov (R): 47 for Haley

    SC-3: 58% for the Huck guy

    SC-4: Runoff

    VA-2: Rigell with 55%

    VA-5: Who cares, 3rd party will let Perriello win in Nov.

    And hopefully Prop 14 passes, nonwithstanding the trolling of e_korackzyk or however you spell his username

  20. AR-Sen

    Halter 63.7%

    Lincoln 36.3%

    CA-Gov

    Whitman 53.2

    Poizner 39.7

    Minor Candidates 7.1

    CA-Sen

    Carlydreamin’ 57.3

    Campbell 26.1

    DeVore 14.1

    GA-09

    Graves 61.8

    Hawkins 38.2

    CA-LG

    Newsom 67.5

    Hahn 32.5

    IA-Gov

    Branstad 44.5

    Vanderbilt Plaats 39.4

    Roberts  16.1

    ME-Gov

    Mitchell 58.3

    Rowe 26.5

    Otten 65.1

    VA-05

    Hurt 57.3

  21. Blanche Lambert Lincoln’s time in the Senate is over. Realizing she’s gonna lose, some loyal Democrats who voted for her last time around decide to switch sides to give Halter a big boost.

    Halter 60.2%

    Lincoln 39.8%

    But then again, I live in a fantasy world with rose-colored glasses. Speaking of, I voted at my new polling place here in the San Fernando Valley. And I have to say it was awesome. Why awesome? Because my new polling place has one noticeable new addition: hotties. Seriously. Hotties. And of course, since I am apparently trapped in some sort of awful rom-com movie in real life, I managed to bump into and nearly knock over the special booth set up for disabled people while locking eyes with one of them.

    And yeah, I’m into dudes, but there was also a pretty hot chick there as well, although she was at a different precinct table. But seriously, I have never seen that at any polling place ever…even USC, where everyone is pretty. It was to the point where I’m now thinking about becoming a poll worker.   …No pun intended.

  22. Arkansas Senate (D):

    Bill Halter 54.7%

    Blanche Lincoln 45.3%

    Other predictions (leftover percentages go to other and/or “None of the above.”)

    California Senate (R):

    Carly Fiorina  45%

    Tom Campbell 29%

    Chuck DeVore 19%

    California Governor (R):

    Meg Whitman 57%

    Steve Poizner 35%

    Nevada Senate (R):

    Sharron Angle 39%

    Sue Lowden 25%

    Danny Tarkanian 24%

    Nevada Governor (R):

    Brian Sandoval 53%

    Jim Gibbons 31%

    Mike Montadon 6%

    South Carolina Governor (R):

    Nikki Haley 41%

    Andre Bauer 25%

    Gresham Barrett 18%

    Henry McMaster 16%

    I don’t really feel like doing anymore percentage predictions, but for what it’s worth, Libby Mitchell will be the Democratic nominee for Maine governor and Vincent Shaheen wins the nod for the Dems in SC.

  23. Halter 52.5

    Lincoln 47.5

    other wild guesses…

    NV. Angle wins (but barely) 38% Lowden 37%, Tarkanian 23%

    SC. Nikki Haley wins, but under the 50% runoff threshold

    CA. Orly Taitz loses CA-SoS to the other dude

  24. Halter 50.0

    Lincoln 50.0

    It ends up as a perfect tie. Down to the last vote (hey, according to the laws of probability, given a large enough number of elections, it has to happen sometime…). They do a recount, and it is still a tie. A coin is flipped to determine a winner. Halter prevails, of course.

  25. AR-SEN

    Halter 50.9%

    Lincoln 49.1%

    NV-SEN

    Angle 38%

    Tarkanian 28%

    Lowden 24%

    Other 10%

    CA-SEN

    Fiorina 52%

    Devore 21%

    Campbell 18%

    Other 9%

    CA-SOS

    Taitz 52%

    Dunn  48%

  26. My slim pickens:

    Arkinsaugh

    Woolridge over Causey

    Elliot over Wills

    Womack over Bledsoe

    Cal-ee-fourn-ya

    SEN- Fiorina

    GOV — Whitman

    DEM LG- Newsom

    REP LG — Maldonado

    DEM AG–Kamala Harris

    REP AG –Harman

    CA-11(R)Amador

    CA-19 (R) — Denham in a squeaker

    CA-36 (D) — Winograd!

    CA-42 (R) — Miller

    CA 47 (R) – Van Tran

    Georgia, Sweet F’ing Georgia

    GA-09 — Graves in a squeaker

    I-Uh-Whaaaaa?

    Gov (R) — VanderPants

    IA-02(R) — Miller-Meeks, Getteny Run-off

    IA-03(R) — Gibbons

    Mane

    GOV(D) — Uh, Mitchell. I guess

    GOV(R) — Otten?

    Joizey

    NJ-03(R)–Runyan

    NJ-07(R) Lance

    Nevodder

    SEN — Angle. Oh yeah. Angle.

    GOV — Sandoval

    Scare-o-lina

    GOV-(D) — Run off Rex Sheheen

    GOV(R) — R/Off Haley & Barrett

    SC-01(R) — R/off Scott & Campbell

    SC-03(R) — Duncan

    SC-04(R) — R/Off Inglis & Gowdy

    South Dakoater

    GOV — Daugaard

    SD-AL(R)– Nelson

    Virgin-ya

    VA-2(R) — Rigell

    VA-5(R) — Hurt (come on VA-5, let’s see a close 2nd for Clark!)

    VA-11(R) — Fimian

    Cal prop 14 passes /kuz it sounds non-partisan (why is this on a primary ballot?)

    Bono Mack

    Busby

    Berg

    Heck dodges tea bagging detritus

     

  27. And I don’t care about babka, so I’ll skip the precision prediction on Arkansas.

    Arkansas Runoffs

    Senate: 56-44 Halter

    House: Wooldridge, Wills, Womack win.

    California

    Whitman – 58

    Poizner – 32

    Other – 10

    Fiorina – 50

    Campbell – 29

    DeVote – 18

    Other – 3

    Georgia runoff: Graves wins.

    Iowa

    Branstad – 55

    Vander Platts – 32

    Roberts – 13

    Conlin wins 2-1 over the other dudes combined.

    Maine

    Libby Mitchell and Les Otten win their respective primaries, not going to even try the percentages there.

    Nevada

    Sandoval – 56

    Gibbons – 32

    Montadon – 9

    Other – 3

    Angle – 36

    Tarkanian – 29

    Lowden – 27

    Other – 8

    South Carolina

    Sheheen – 44

    Rex – 41

    Ford – 15

    Haley – 42

    Barrett – 25

    McMaster – 20

    Bauer – 13

    South Dakota

    Dennis Daugaard wins over 35%, avoiding a runoff.

    Virginia

    VA-01:

    Rob Wittman – 78

    Catherine Crabill – 22

    VA-02:

    Scott Rigell – 51

    Bert Mizusawa – 17

    Ben Loyola – 14

    Scott Taylor – 12

    Ed Maulbeck – 4

    Jessica Sandlin – 2

    VA-05:

    Robert Hurt – 42

    Ken Boyd – 16

    Jim McKelvey – 13

    Laurence Paul Verga – 11

    Feda Kidd Morton – 10

    Mike McPadden – 6

    Ron Ferrin – 2

    VA-11:

    Keith Fimian – 52

    Pat Herrity – 48

  28. Senate

    Fiorina 45%

    Campbell 30%

    DeVore 22%

    Governor

    Whitman 62%

    Poizner 38%

    Lt. Gov – DEM

    Newsom 56%

    Hahn 44%

    Lt. Gov – GOP

    Aanestad 51%

    Maldonado 49%

    Attorney General – DEM

    Harris 50%

    Kelly 45%

    Others 5%

    Attorney General – GOP

    Harman 45%

    Cooley 35%

    Eastman 20%

    Secretary of State – GOP

    Dunn 53%

    Taitz 47%

    Insurance Commissioner – DEM

    Jones 57%

    De La Torre 43%

    CA-11 – GOP

    Harmer 42%

    Amador 37%

    Emken 16%

    Goehring 5%

    CA-19 – DEM

    Goodwin 55%

    Marsden 45%

    CA-19 – GOP

    Denham 45%

    Patterson 35%

    Pombo 15%

    Westerlund 5%

    CA-36 – DEM

    Harman 55%

    Winograd 45%

    CA-42 – GOP

    Miller 73% over all the others

    CA-47 – GOP

    Van Tran 34%

    Kathy Smith 30%

    Tan Nguyen 27%

    CA-50 – DEM

    Busby 60%

    Emblem 40%

    AD-05 – GOP

    DeLuz 54%

    Pogno 46%

    AD-30 – DEM

    Parra 50% (barely ekes by)

    Florez 50%

    AD-36 – DEM

    Watkins 37%

    Jones 33%

    Campbell 30%

    AD-68 – DEM

    Nguyen 60%

    Dovinh 40%

    AD-68 – GOP

    Pham 65%

    Mansoor 35%

    Prop 13 60%-40%

    Prop 14 58%-42%

    Prop 15 55%-45%

    Prop 16 49%-51%

    Prop 17 48%-52%

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