It’s game day! And at Swing State Project, that means we want to hear your best guess on what’s going to happen tonight. Can Bill Halter complete the last-minute surge and overtake Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas Senate runoff? Is Sue Lowden’s goose cooked, or can she unscramble herself in time to hold off Sharron Angle? Will the attempts to slime Nikki Haley in South Carolina backfire, as the polls seem to show? Will the people of Maine at some point wake up and realize there’s a gubernatorial primary today? And most important of all, will Orly Taitz be the GOP’s next Secretary of State nominee in the nation’s largest state?
There’s also about eleventy-zillion other races worth following tonight; check out our election preview from yesterday for more information.
If you throw in the special election in GA-09, we’re watching nearly one-quarter of all of the states tonight. Here’s the list of closing times (all listed in Eastern Time):
• Georgia 7:00
• South Carolina 07:00
• Virginia 07:00
• Maine 08:00
• New Jersey 08:00
• Arkansas 08:30
• South Dakota 08:00 /09:00
• Iowa 10:00
• Montana 10:00
• Nevada 10:00
• California 11:00
• North Dakota 10:00 /11:00
We’ll post results links later in the day, but if you know of any good places for results, please post those in the comments too. Thanks!
UPDATE: We don’t like to give away babka for complicated election nights where there are hundreds of moving pieces (takes too long to calculate a winner), but we know that everyone loves babka. So, here’s the contest for tonight: pick the winner and percentages in the AR-Sen runoff. Sound simple enough? Well, we need you to specify the exact percentage for each — down to the tenths of a percentage point. We don’t want no stinkin’ ties.
UPDATE: While we’re enjoying the influx of AR-Sen predictions, please don’t limit yourselves; feel free to offer your predictions on any other babka-free race that interests you as well!
In more information on California races and what you should watch while the returns come in, check out my diary here: http://swingstateproject.com/d…
I’ll be out of town for a few hours tonight so I’ll miss some of the early states, but I’m glad to see from the list that I won’t miss too much!
Here’s a link to the GA results: http://sos.georgia.gov/electio…
I don’t think I’ve participated in these contests before, mainly because I’m awful with picking percentages, but, here we go:
Lincoln – 51.2%
Halter – 48.8%
But as a native of Garland County, here we go.
Halter: 53.4%
Lincoln: 46.6%
All my family in Garland and Montgomery County are going to vote today for Halter 😀
Halter – 56.3%
Lincoln – 43.7%
Goooo Halter!
Bill Halter – 51.9%
Blanche Lincoln – 48.1%
Halter: 52.2
Lincoln: 47.8
Halter- 52.4%
Lincoln- 47.6%
Halter: 53.7
Lincoln: 46.3
I’m glad North Dakota doesn’t have anything really worth watching. There’s only one judge, one state house and Pomeroy’s opponent contested.
Make it simple:
Halter: 57.5
Lincoln: 42.5
Halter 54.3%
Lincoln 45.7%
Halter 54.3%
Lincoln 45.7%
I think the big dog still has influence in AR:
Lincoln: 50.3%
Halter : 49.7%
Halter 55.5%
Lincoln 44.5%
Halter- 53.4
Lincoln- 46.6
I got my fingers crossed.
AR-Sen
Halter 52.4
Lincoln 47.6
CA-Sen
Fiorina 56%
DeVore 22%
Campbell 22%
SC-Gov
Haley: 50% (plus 1, enough to avoid runoff)
Garrett: 26%
McMaster: 17%
Bauer: 7%
NV-Sen
Tarkanian: 35%
Angle: 35%
Lowden: 26%
Thats my predictions for the races that interest me.
Halter – 52.3%
Lincoln – 47.7%
In other results, Nikki Haley wins with over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Danny Tarkanian shocks everybody to win the NV-Sen primary as the lesser of the three evils. Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina steamroll to victory in California, partly sealing both of their fates in November as the “duel CEO’s” angle gets played up. Also in Arkansas, Elliot defeats Wills in AR-2, killing Dem chances of holding that seat, and Woolridge defeats Causey in AR-1, giving us a likely conserva-dem win in November. In IA-3, I have a feeling that state senator Brad Zaun will pull off an upset to face Leonard Boswell.
AR-Sen
Halter – 52.6
Lincoln – 47.4
AR-01
Causey – 51
Wooldridge – 49
AR-02
Elliott – 58
Wills – 42
AR-03
Bledsoe – 54
Womack – 46
SoS
O’Brien – 59
Wilcox – 41
Land Commissioner
Davenport – 51
Bryant – 49
Halter 52.3
Lincoln 47.7
All predictions are right here, but for the Babka:
Halter: 53.34%
Lincoln: 46.66%
Halter – 54.24
Lincoln – 45.76
Halter 52.8
Lincoln 47.2
Halter: 51.2
Lincoln: 48.8
…and losing her Senate seat is one.
Halter 59.9
Lincoln 40.1
What’s a babka? Anyhoo, I want one.
Halter 51.0%
Lincoln 49.0%
Dale Peterson – 67%
Bill Halter – 20%
Blanche Lincoln – 13%
Because he also gives a rrrrrip about Arkansas!
Halter 54.7
Lincoln 45.3
Halter winner, but with the whole “county of 80,000 people backing Halter having only 2 polling places” thing and the possible strength of Lincoln’s machine (though I do think the unions will do a better job of GOTV) I don’t feel comfortable putting Halter any higher, unfortunately.
AR-Sen
Halter 55.7
Lincoln 44.3
SC-04
Gowdy 42
Inglis 36
Others 22
SC-Gov (R)
Haley 52
McMaster 26
Barrett 13
Bauer 9
SC-Gov (D)
Sheheen 48
Rex 40
Ford 12
VA-02
Loyola 39
Rigell 27
Mizusawa 15
Others 19
VA-05
Hurt 55
Teabaggers 45
GA-09
Hawkins 55
Graves 45
CA-Sen
Fiorina 48
DeVore 27
Campbell 22
Others 3
CA-Gov
Whitman 52
Poizner 44
Others 4
CA-11
Harmer 45
Emken 25
Amador 22
Goehring 8
CA-19 (R)
Denham 37
Patterson 34
Pombo 26
Westerlund 3
CA-19 (D)
Goodwin 54
Marsden 46
CA-33
Karen Bass 65
Others 35
CA-36
Harman 56
Winograd 44
CA-42
Gary
OakMiller 51Ash KetchumLiberatore 45Others 4
CA-45
Bono Mack 68
Thibodeau 32
CA-47
Tran 37
Smith 35
Nguyen 28
CA-50
Busby 54
Emblem 46
NV-Sen
Angle 37
Tarkanian 33
Lowden 27
Other/None 3
NV-Gov
Sandoval 53
Gibbons 38
Montandon 6
Other/None 3
ok this is already getting way too long. more later, maybe.
AR-SEN: Halter-52.8
Lincoln-47.2
NV-SEN: Angle-35
Tark-30
Lowden-28
others-5
None-2
I refuse to make an AR prediction because I don’t want to jinx Halter.
I vote in SC. I predict Haley will win outright and have a huge bounce in the first post primary polls. Everyone is rooting for her because of the bad things people have tried to do to her. But guys, c’mon, you’re rooting for a Palin endorsee. I really hope Sheheen make voters come back to their senses.
I’m going out on a limb and say that Sheheen will win outright in the SC-Gov dem primary. He has all the momentum. I wish him the best of luck against Haley.
Arkansas
Halter: 54.2
Lincoln: 45.8
CA-Sen (R)
Fiorina: 46
Campbell: 31
DeVore: 20
Disappointing for Campbell. He’s a really thoughtful guy, and would have made a good addition to the Senate (though maybe not instead of Boxer)
CA-Gov (R)
Whitman: 62
Poizner: 36
SC-Gov (D)
Shaheen: 58
Rex: 42
SC-Gov (R)
Haley: 41
McMaster: 24
Barrett: 21
Bauer: 14
SC-4 (R)
Gowdy: 42
Inglis: 40
ME-Gov (D)
Libby Mitchell wins with 23%…lowest I can remember since David Davis beat Phil Roe in the TN-01 primary in 2006.
Halter 55.85
Lincoln 44.15
Bill Halter – 51.6%
Blanche Lincoln – 48.4%
Lincoln 39.6
Halter 60.4
Halter 55.8%
Lincoln 44.2%
We should also be getting results for AL-Gov to see who makes it to the run-off.
Arkansas Senate race. Regretfully, the last name of next Senator from Arkansas is neither Lincoln, nor Halter)))
Lincoln 51.3
Halter 48.7
I still think Halter will win, but most of y’all are choosing Halter. Therefore, in case Lincoln surprises everyone, I’ll have a greater chance of actually winning.
Nikki Haley wins with over 50 percent and avoids runoff. It will be nice to see the secessionist pigs deal with this one.
AR-Sen for the babka:
Halter – 54.8%
Lincoln – 45.2%
I think Halter could win bigger (~58%, if Lincoln’s supporters aren’t motivated), but I’ve also got a nasty pessimistic streak that says Lincoln wins in a squeaker. So I’m splitting the difference.
I started trying to do predictions for every other race in the SSP preview, but since I don’t actually know anything, they were all shots in the dark. So, general predictions: anti-establishment trend continues, GOP picks crazy conservatives.
For Arkansas I’ll predict
Halter 52.0%
Lincoln 48.0%
No one has predicted it yet. I wanted a somewhat bigger margin… but, seems close enough.
Sue Lowden scrambled herself. I say Angle wins with about 35% of the vote to Lowden and Tarkanian each at about 30%.
Nikki Haley will win and then have to quit before the runoff when the extramarital affair allegations are proven. I predict the nominee will ultimately be Henry McMaster who will get about 25% to her 40%.
The Maine elections will have about 10% turnout and will be decided by just a few hundred votes.
Orly Taitz will be GOP SoS nominee in CA.
These predictions are pure guesswork and I have no reason to believe they will be at all accurate.
Lincoln-44.4%
Halter-55.6%
Halter’s voters are more motivated
Halter 54% Lincoln 46% just like PA!
Halter by basically 3: Halter 51.4 – Lincoln 48.6
ALSO
* Haley gets 45-48% of vote but faces runoff, prob agst McMaster
* Branstad by < 18
* Harman over Winograd by 15-20
Tarkanian will pull a Kryzan/Deeds and get enough support from voters turned off by the flame war to surge into first.
Something on the lines of:
Tarkanian: 40
Angle: 35
Lowden: 25
CA prop 15 loses narrowly as voters see through the PG&E smokescreen
And my tradition WAG for the babka
Halter 53.71
Lincoln 46.29
AR-Sen
Halter – 52.8%
Lincoln – 47.2%
CA-Gov (R)
Whitman – 63.2%
Poizner – 36.8%
CA-Sen (R)
Fiorina – 46%
Campbell – 33%
DeVore – 21%
NV-Sen (R)
Angle – 45%
Lowden – 38%
Tarkanian – 17%
i finished school last friday. anyhow:
i’m going to be very comprehensive
AR-Sen: I’m a pessimist, and it’s not like we’ll hold this seat anyways. 52.6-47.4 Lincoln
AR-1: Wooldridge 59-41, sadly
AR-2: Wills 63-37
AR-3: Womack 52-48
CA-Gov: 64-36 Whitman, 91-9 Brown
CA-Sen: 45-28-27 Fiorina-Campbell-DeVore
CA-19: 34-32-24-10(others) Patterson-Denham-Pombo
CA-36: 64-36 Harman
CA-42: 72% for Miller
GA-9: 61-39 Hawkins
IA-Gov: 41-36-23 Branstad/VanderPlaats/Roberts
IA-3: Nobody over 35%
ME-Gov: Blank ballots win both sides
NJ-3: 57% for Runyan
NJ-7: 76% for Lance
NV-Sen: 32-31-26-11(others/none)Angle/Tarkanian/Lowden
NV-Gov: 58-42 Sandoval
SC-Gov (R): 47 for Haley
SC-3: 58% for the Huck guy
SC-4: Runoff
VA-2: Rigell with 55%
VA-5: Who cares, 3rd party will let Perriello win in Nov.
And hopefully Prop 14 passes, nonwithstanding the trolling of e_korackzyk or however you spell his username
AR-Sen
Halter 63.7%
Lincoln 36.3%
CA-Gov
Whitman 53.2
Poizner 39.7
Minor Candidates 7.1
CA-Sen
Carlydreamin’ 57.3
Campbell 26.1
DeVore 14.1
GA-09
Graves 61.8
Hawkins 38.2
CA-LG
Newsom 67.5
Hahn 32.5
IA-Gov
Branstad 44.5
Vanderbilt Plaats 39.4
Roberts 16.1
ME-Gov
Mitchell 58.3
Rowe 26.5
Otten 65.1
VA-05
Hurt 57.3
Blanche Lambert Lincoln’s time in the Senate is over. Realizing she’s gonna lose, some loyal Democrats who voted for her last time around decide to switch sides to give Halter a big boost.
Halter 60.2%
Lincoln 39.8%
But then again, I live in a fantasy world with rose-colored glasses. Speaking of, I voted at my new polling place here in the San Fernando Valley. And I have to say it was awesome. Why awesome? Because my new polling place has one noticeable new addition: hotties. Seriously. Hotties. And of course, since I am apparently trapped in some sort of awful rom-com movie in real life, I managed to bump into and nearly knock over the special booth set up for disabled people while locking eyes with one of them.
And yeah, I’m into dudes, but there was also a pretty hot chick there as well, although she was at a different precinct table. But seriously, I have never seen that at any polling place ever…even USC, where everyone is pretty. It was to the point where I’m now thinking about becoming a poll worker. …No pun intended.
Halter 52.6%
Lincoln 47.4%
Halter: 53.5%
Lincoln: 46.5%
Halter 54.9
Lincoln 45.1
Halter 54.8%
Lincoln 45.2%
Halter 53.8%
Lincoln 46.2%
Halter: 63.8%
Lincoln: 36.2%
probably not happening, but worth a shot.
Halter- 54.4
Lincoln- 45.6
I predict Halter will win by this narrow by comfortable margin.
AR-Sen
Halter – 54.3%
Lincoln – 45.7%
Halter: 54.6%
Lincoln: 45.2%
Arkansas Senate (D):
Bill Halter 54.7%
Blanche Lincoln 45.3%
Other predictions (leftover percentages go to other and/or “None of the above.”)
California Senate (R):
Carly Fiorina 45%
Tom Campbell 29%
Chuck DeVore 19%
California Governor (R):
Meg Whitman 57%
Steve Poizner 35%
Nevada Senate (R):
Sharron Angle 39%
Sue Lowden 25%
Danny Tarkanian 24%
Nevada Governor (R):
Brian Sandoval 53%
Jim Gibbons 31%
Mike Montadon 6%
South Carolina Governor (R):
Nikki Haley 41%
Andre Bauer 25%
Gresham Barrett 18%
Henry McMaster 16%
I don’t really feel like doing anymore percentage predictions, but for what it’s worth, Libby Mitchell will be the Democratic nominee for Maine governor and Vincent Shaheen wins the nod for the Dems in SC.
Sounds like Arson
Halter: 53.1%
Lincoln: 46.9%
Halter 54.1%
Lincoln 45.9%
Halter 52.1%
Lincoln 47.9%
Halter 52.5
Lincoln 47.5
other wild guesses…
NV. Angle wins (but barely) 38% Lowden 37%, Tarkanian 23%
SC. Nikki Haley wins, but under the 50% runoff threshold
CA. Orly Taitz loses CA-SoS to the other dude
Halter 83
Lincoln 17
Well, I haven’t had my coffee yet….
I’ll go big (or…go home):
Halter 59.1%
Lincoln 40.9%
Halter 50.0
Lincoln 50.0
It ends up as a perfect tie. Down to the last vote (hey, according to the laws of probability, given a large enough number of elections, it has to happen sometime…). They do a recount, and it is still a tie. A coin is flipped to determine a winner. Halter prevails, of course.
AR-SEN
Halter 50.9%
Lincoln 49.1%
NV-SEN
Angle 38%
Tarkanian 28%
Lowden 24%
Other 10%
CA-SEN
Fiorina 52%
Devore 21%
Campbell 18%
Other 9%
CA-SOS
Taitz 52%
Dunn 48%
My slim pickens:
Arkinsaugh
Woolridge over Causey
Elliot over Wills
Womack over Bledsoe
Cal-ee-fourn-ya
SEN- Fiorina
GOV — Whitman
DEM LG- Newsom
REP LG — Maldonado
DEM AG–Kamala Harris
REP AG –Harman
CA-11(R)Amador
CA-19 (R) — Denham in a squeaker
CA-36 (D) — Winograd!
CA-42 (R) — Miller
CA
47 (R)– Van TranGeorgia, Sweet F’ing Georgia
GA-09 — Graves in a squeaker
I-Uh-Whaaaaa?
Gov (R) — VanderPants
IA-02(R) — Miller-Meeks, Getteny Run-off
IA-03(R) — Gibbons
Mane
GOV(D) — Uh, Mitchell. I guess
GOV(R) — Otten?
Joizey
NJ-03(R)–Runyan
NJ-07(R) Lance
Nevodder
SEN — Angle. Oh yeah. Angle.
GOV — Sandoval
Scare-o-lina
GOV-(D) — Run off Rex Sheheen
GOV(R) — R/Off Haley & Barrett
SC-01(R) — R/off Scott & Campbell
SC-03(R) — Duncan
SC-04(R) — R/Off Inglis & Gowdy
South Dakoater
GOV — Daugaard
SD-AL(R)– Nelson
Virgin-ya
VA-2(R) — Rigell
VA-5(R) — Hurt (come on VA-5, let’s see a close 2nd for Clark!)
VA-11(R) — Fimian
Cal prop 14 passes /kuz it sounds non-partisan (why is this on a primary ballot?)
Bono Mack
Busby
Berg
Heck dodges tea bagging detritus
And I don’t care about babka, so I’ll skip the precision prediction on Arkansas.
Arkansas Runoffs
Senate: 56-44 Halter
House: Wooldridge, Wills, Womack win.
California
Whitman – 58
Poizner – 32
Other – 10
Fiorina – 50
Campbell – 29
DeVote – 18
Other – 3
Georgia runoff: Graves wins.
Iowa
Branstad – 55
Vander Platts – 32
Roberts – 13
Conlin wins 2-1 over the other dudes combined.
Maine
Libby Mitchell and Les Otten win their respective primaries, not going to even try the percentages there.
Nevada
Sandoval – 56
Gibbons – 32
Montadon – 9
Other – 3
Angle – 36
Tarkanian – 29
Lowden – 27
Other – 8
South Carolina
Sheheen – 44
Rex – 41
Ford – 15
Haley – 42
Barrett – 25
McMaster – 20
Bauer – 13
South Dakota
Dennis Daugaard wins over 35%, avoiding a runoff.
Virginia
VA-01:
Rob Wittman – 78
Catherine Crabill – 22
VA-02:
Scott Rigell – 51
Bert Mizusawa – 17
Ben Loyola – 14
Scott Taylor – 12
Ed Maulbeck – 4
Jessica Sandlin – 2
VA-05:
Robert Hurt – 42
Ken Boyd – 16
Jim McKelvey – 13
Laurence Paul Verga – 11
Feda Kidd Morton – 10
Mike McPadden – 6
Ron Ferrin – 2
VA-11:
Keith Fimian – 52
Pat Herrity – 48
Obama………51.7
Romney……..45.3
All others…..3.0
Arkansas- Halter 53.7
Lincoln 46.3
Montana-
Tyler Gernant 44%
Dennis McDonald 38%
Melinda Gopher 12%
Sam Rankin 4%
Halter – 54.8%
Lincoln – 45.2%
Senate
Fiorina 45%
Campbell 30%
DeVore 22%
Governor
Whitman 62%
Poizner 38%
Lt. Gov – DEM
Newsom 56%
Hahn 44%
Lt. Gov – GOP
Aanestad 51%
Maldonado 49%
Attorney General – DEM
Harris 50%
Kelly 45%
Others 5%
Attorney General – GOP
Harman 45%
Cooley 35%
Eastman 20%
Secretary of State – GOP
Dunn 53%
Taitz 47%
Insurance Commissioner – DEM
Jones 57%
De La Torre 43%
CA-11 – GOP
Harmer 42%
Amador 37%
Emken 16%
Goehring 5%
CA-19 – DEM
Goodwin 55%
Marsden 45%
CA-19 – GOP
Denham 45%
Patterson 35%
Pombo 15%
Westerlund 5%
CA-36 – DEM
Harman 55%
Winograd 45%
CA-42 – GOP
Miller 73% over all the others
CA-47 – GOP
Van Tran 34%
Kathy Smith 30%
Tan Nguyen 27%
CA-50 – DEM
Busby 60%
Emblem 40%
AD-05 – GOP
DeLuz 54%
Pogno 46%
AD-30 – DEM
Parra 50% (barely ekes by)
Florez 50%
AD-36 – DEM
Watkins 37%
Jones 33%
Campbell 30%
AD-68 – DEM
Nguyen 60%
Dovinh 40%
AD-68 – GOP
Pham 65%
Mansoor 35%
Prop 13 60%-40%
Prop 14 58%-42%
Prop 15 55%-45%
Prop 16 49%-51%
Prop 17 48%-52%