4:00am: Props 16 and 17 look like they’ll fail tonight, 51.8% No on 16 and 50.7% No on 17. If they follow the trajectory they’ve been taking over the course of the night, expect those numbers to go up. Harmer’s still nursing his 10 point lead over Goehring in CA-11. After nine hours, SSP is signing off!
3:51am: Fortunately for Gary Miller, California’s not a runoff state! He’s now just under 50%! Both props continue to slip now at over 2/3rd reporting; our punch cards say 51.7% No on 16, 50.6% No on 17.
3:45am: Have we crossed the Rubicon? Prop 16 looking headed towards failure with 51.4% opposed. No’s running ahead of yes by 107,000 right now, which in light of what we’re estimating to be 600,000 or so votes left isn’t trivial to overcome. Prop 17 has tipped the balance and is now projected to fail by 0.2%, but No’s 25,000 lead is much more tenuous.
3:30am: No love for Prop 15 (public financing of SoS campaigns); the AP’s finally called ‘No’ with 57%.
3:25am: Looking at Props 16 and 17 now with 57% reporting, both Props’ support continue to weaken. Prop 16 is now on track for 51.2% opposed, and Prop 17 passing by 0.5%. There are a few Prop 16 strongholds left, notably, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties, but there are plenty of smaller NorCal counties there to offset – half of Santa Clara, Yolo, and Alameda; three-fourths of Santa Cruz, and a third of Sonoma. Even Placer’s contributing to the No-on-16 effort, where it’s failing 53-47 right now.
3:10am: It’s now past midnight Pacific Time, and the big action is left in Props 16 and 17. (Prop 15 hasn’t been called yet, but looks well on target for failure). Prop 16’s fate has changed quite a bit since an hour and a half ago, now looking on track for failure with 50.9% against. What’s changed? More anti-Prop 16 areas in Southern California are reporting: LA County, which had been supporting Prop 16 with 56%, is now down to 52% in support; Santa Barbara which was in support is now against. Prop 17 is doing better, looking on track for passage with about 50.4%.
3:00am: Is Busby the new Sodrel? Busby declared the winner in CA-50, setting up Busby v. Bilbray round 3.
2:56am: In an odd show of moderation by the California GOP, appointed incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado gets the nod for re-election over conservative challenger State Senator Sam Aanestad.
2:53am: CA-36 (D): Jane Harman has fended off Marcy Winograd for the second time with about 61% of the vote.
2:47am: Gary Miller’s 53% is good enough for the AP to declare him the winner. It’s better than Bob “28%” Inglis, but still weak.
2:45am: CA-36 (D) is looking similar to 2006 at 62-38 for Harman. Laura Richardson was also declared the winner next door in CA-37 with a surprisingly weak 65%.
2:41am: CA-19 (R) called for Denham. Marsden still trailing Goodwin 53-47 on the (D) side.
2:39am: Few more precincts rolled through in CA-42, Gary Miller is now to 53%, in one of tonight’s worst incumbent showings.
2:37am: Kamala Harris gets the Dem nod for Attorney General; matchup will be SF DA Harris vs. LA DA Cooley.
2:32am: Mary Mary quite contrary, how does your garden grow? More quickly now, it seems, enough that the AP has called the Dem Lt. Gov nod for Gavin Newsom and the GOP Att. Gen nod for Steve Cooley.
2:30am: The statewide races aren’t the only thing seemingly standing still. CA-11 is still 35-28 for Harmer, while CA-19 has moved a bit to 37-30 Denham over Patterson, with the odious Dick Pombo back at 20. Gary Miller continues to underwhelm in CA-42 at 54%. Also in a bit of a surprise, California Democratic Party-endorsed candidate Les Marsden is down 47-53 to Some Dude Loraine Goodwin. The only major movement is on the Prop 16 side, which is now slated to fail narrowly with 50.12% against.
2:10am: The sky is still blue, as well, it seems! 36% in now, same holding pattern: 57-31 Newsom for LG (D), 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-17 Harris for AG (D), and 49-32 Cooley for AG (R). Here at SSP Labs, we are now taking bets over whether Kamala Harris will clear the one-third mark. (Signs pointing to no and a finish around 32%). Prop 16 is now looking at a 50.4% passage.
1:58am: Things are looking a little comfier for David Harmer in CA-11, much to the NRCC’s pleasure, I’m sure. He’s at 36, with Brad Goehring at 27. Amador’s at 19 and Emken at 18.
1:55am: Watching California’s been like watching grass grow, but bring on the Miracle Gro! A cool 1,000 precincts just rolled in, bringing us to 29% reporting. But, alas, grass is still green, 58-30 Newsom for LG (D); 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-18 Harris for AG (D); and 50-31 Cooley for AG (R). Prop 16 still on track to pass with 51.8%.
1:47am: Prop 16’s back down narrowly in California by less than 2,000 votes. For what was assumed to be a Democrat-Republican issue, this is seriously breaking the usual patterns: the “new Orange County” of Placer County and conservative Kern County (Bakersfield) are voting this down, while normally Democratic SoCal areas like LA and Imperial County are voting yes. Some good old back-of-the-envelope math says passage is likely with 51.8%.
1:42am: Here’s an odd tidbit I missed: the SC-03 Republican runoff is going to be between state Rep. Jeff Duncan (as expected) and businessman Richard Cash (totally unexpected, with state Rep. Rex Rice finishing 3rd), but Cash actually wound up pulling ahead at the end. It was 25 Cash, 23 Duncan, 19 Rice, and 19 for John Grimaud (who’d planned to challenge Joe Wilson in the 2nd, but decided at the last minute that the 3rd would be better).
1:40am: Two special elections in CA today. One for Assembly District 43 (Glendale, Burbank) to replace now-LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian (D), where after 6 precincts, the Dem is up 54-46. AD-43 went for Obama 70-28. The other’s in Senate District 37 to replace now-Riverside Co. Supervisor John Benoit (R). Dems didn’t expect to have a shot, but the Dem nominee’s losing 57-32 in an SD that gave Obama 50.3%. The more exciting special election – to replace now Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado is in two weeks.
1:30am: Still a holding pattern in the four big CA statewide races left, though we’re at 22% reporting now. Newsom still up on Hahn 57-30 for Dem Lt. Gov; Maldonado up 47-28 though Aanestad’s doing well in Orange County. Dem AG remains 33-18-15-12, Harris-Kelly-Torrico-Lieu, and Rep AG is also still at 50-31-19 Cooley/Eastman/Harman. Prop 16 is leading narrowly now and could be extrapolated to it passing 52-48.
1:20am: Things are still a little slow in CA-42; with 6% reporting, Gary Miller’s at 55%, which I think is the 2nd most underwhelming House incumbent performance tonight (ahead of only Bob Inglis). Phil Liberatore is at 32.
1:10am: The last outstanding race in Arkansas looks like it’s been put to bed. In the R primary runoff in AR-03, the AP has called it for Steve Womack, 52-48, over Cecile Bledsoe. Another endorsement fail for Sarah Palin. At least Terry Branstad’s keeping her percentage up.
1:00am: In CA-47, it looks the Vietnamese vote splitting problem never materialized. Van Tran leads the GOP primary at 52, with Kathy Smith at 29 and Tan Nguyen at 19.
12:57am: The Cal SoS seems to be further along than the AP (up to 15% in), and they have a whole different take on CA-11. They have Harmer at 34, not that far ahead of Goehring at 30, with Amador at 18 and Emken at 17.
12:55am: Geez, add even another one to the list. In CA-41, Jerry Lewis (rounding out the trio of Inland Empire GOPers under ethical clouds for weird real estate deals) leads his opposition 66-34.
12:52am: In CA-44, Ken Calvert also looks poised to join the very large club of incumbents not breaking 70% in their primaries. He leads his opposition 69-31. Up in CA-11, establishment pick David Harmer has gained more ground; he’s at 48, with 21 for Emken, 20 for Amador, and 10 for Goehring. And in CA-19, establishment guy Jeff Denham also leads 41, with Patterson at 25 and Pombo at 20, with about 40% reporting.
12:46am: The four Lt. Gov and Attorney General races are still uncalled. For LG (D), Newsom’s up 57-31 on Hahn winning plenty of SoCal locales like San Diego. In the Republican primary, Maldonado’s keeping his edge over Sam Aanestad, who’s even losing stalwart conservative areas like Placer County. For Atty Gen (D), Kamala Harris is keeping a narrow 32-18 lead over Chris Kelly; Torrico in 3rd at 15 and Lieu in 4th at 12. Not enough cat fud in GOP primary; moderate Steve Cooley still up 50-31 on Eastman with Tom Harman back at 19.
12:44am: Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass wins her primary in CA-33 with 85%, will likely be the next congresswoman from this D+35 district.
12:36am: Sue Lowden can now set up that bartering post she’s always wanted; NV-Sen called for Angle by the AP.
12:33am: No, rly. AP calls the Republican SoS primary for Damon Dunn. Orly Taitz can go back to filing groundless lawsuits as a private citizen. In between pulling teeth.
12:32am: AP has called Proposition 14 (top two primary system) as a ‘yes.’ Take that, third parties!
12:29am: Here’s one GOP moderate who survived a teabagger challenge with little trouble. Mary Bono Mack leads Clayton Thibodeau 74-26 with more than half in, in CA-45. In CA-42, only about 1% is in, but it points to Gary Miller — who we’d thought was most vulnerable to his teabagging opponent, seeing as how he (Liberatore) actually had some money — surviving, albeit unimpressively. Miller leads 58-28.
12:28am: In CA-50, it looks like it’ll be Francine Busby 3.0. With more than 10% in, she’s leading Tracy Emblem 64-36.
12:25am: Switching back to the East coast, there’s one New Jersey race still uncalled. In the GOP primary in NJ-06, 99.6% are in, and Little leads Gooch (the moneybags lady who was On the Radar) by about 100 votes.
12:22am: Joe Heck easily dispensed with the teabag remnants he faced in the GOP primary in NV-03, winning with 70%. There is, however, a barnburner between two guys I don’t know in the Dem primary in NV-02, for the booby prize of going up against Dean Heller: K. McKenna and N. Price are both at 45.
12:19am: Since we last looked, Sharron Angle really turned on the afterburners. Now she’s at 38, with Sue Lowden at 29 and Tark at 22 (oh, and carpetbagging investment banker John Chachas at 4). We’re closing on on half reporting. Angle has pulled into the lead (36-33) in Clark County, where over half the votes are.
12:16am: Bass masters her opposition. Karen Bass, former state Speaker, is at a whopping 85% against minor opposition to succeed Diane Watson in CA-33.
12:14am: In CA-26, David Dreier’s at 78% against minor opposition, much better than a lot of other insider Reps tonight. If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it’s him.
12:10am: AP calls CA-Sen for Carly Fiorina. 54 for her, to 26 for Campbell for 17 for DeVore. Campbell heads back to the pasture to resume frightening sheep.
12:09am: Only 2% in in CA-11, but David Harmer is breaking away. He’s at 39, with Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken both at 24, and liberal huntin’ vintner Brad Goehring at 12.
12:07am: Here’s one more totally unexpected teabagging underway in dark red CA-02. With 10% in, Wally Herger (R) is at only 62% against Some Dude.
12:05am: Holy crap! CA-Sen (D) has been called for Barbara Boxer. The ghost of Paul Wellstone has struck down Mickey Kaus.
12:02am: Here’s a race that was on nobody’s radar screen: Laura Richardson (D in a safe blue district, but associated with foreclosures and a general sense of being out-to-lunch), is at only 65%, although against scattered opposition.
12:01am: Less than 5% reporting, but CA-36 (D) may turn out to be something of a non-event; Jane Harman leads Marcy Winograd 65-35.
12:00am: Onto the Cali House races. In CA-19 (R), with about 23% reporting, Jeff Denham leads Jim Patterson and Richard Pombo 44-23-20. Looks like that poll surge for Patterson didn’t pan out.
11:58pm: Back to South Carolina for a minute, where it’s been confirmed that in SC-01, we’re headed to a GOP runoff between CfG protege Tim Scott and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond. Sorry, “Tumpy.”
11:55pm: Initiatives! Prop 14 (top two primary) passing, 60-40. Peace & Freedom Party heads for dustbin of history. Prop 15 (public financing of elections) failing, 43-57. Prop 16 (electric company tyranny) passing, 53-47. And Prop 17 (auto insurance) also passing 55-45.
11:53pm: AP calls CA-Gov (R) for Meg Whitman. $80-odd million and counting; how much will she spend by November?
11:50pm: For LG, it’s Newsom 52, Hahn 35, and for the GOP, it’s Maldonado 48, Aanestad 28. For AG, Harris leads at 28, with Kelly at 19, Torrico at 15, Lieu at 14, Delgadillo way back at 8. And among GOPer AGers, Cooley 52, Eastman 30.
11:48pm: And in the Senate, Carly Fiorina is leading Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore 58-23-17. Barbara Boxer leading Mickey Kaus (does that rhyme with Mickey Mouse? never noticed that till now) 78-5.
11:46pm: Quick non-California update: AR-01 called for Chad Causey. Not much love for public hanging, even in West Memphis (home of the West Memphis 3!).
11:45pm: We’re getting close to 5% reporting in California statewide, so let’s turn our attention to the Golden State. Meg Whitman is beating Steve Poizner 64-26, outpacing the polls a bit. Y’know, Jerry Brown is too, actually; he leads Richard Aguirre 83-4.
11:40pm: This may turn out to be the weirdest story of the night, about Alvin Greene, the 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and who now happens to be the Dem nominee for Senate in South Carolina (instead of expected candidate Vic Rawl, a Charleston Co. Commissioner). Somehow he came across $10K to file, and has seemed to have run a phantom campaign ever since then. How did he get here? We’ll no doubt hear more in coming days.
11:35pm: And now the news that’ll have everyone saying “Who?” AP calls ME-Gov (D) for Libby Mitchell. She’ll face Paul LePage in the duel of the unknowns.
11:34pm: We’ll start with the bad news; AP calls IA-Gov (R) for Terry Branstad. But only 50-40 over Vander Plaats.
11:24pm: The night is winding down, but CA and NV are just getting cranked up.
- AR: Associated Press | Politico
- CA: Associated Press | Politico
- IA: Associated Press | Politico
- ME: Associated Press | Politico
- NV: Associated Press | Politico
Orly’s only got 25% of the vote in CA Sec of State Race. You can bet ACORN was at work here.
Dude, I’m on my first beer and my ganja just got delivered. West Coast reprazentin’.
The returns are coming in so ask yourself those questions: http://swingstateproject.com/d…
Tomorrow to Nikkie Haley.
called for Branstad.
Or at least he’s leading and has almost all the growing room.
race for California lieutenant governor:
Gavin Newsom has 53% of the vote while Janice Hahn has 35% of the vote. Newsom right now is cleaning up statewide while Hahn is only leading in Los Angeles County (big surprise).
Abel Maldonado is beating Aanestad 51% to 25%.
and ruling in outstate counties. If she keeps Washoe at this percentage, she should be able to offset half of Clark with Washoe and win by a few points due to the miscellaneous counties.
Harry Reid’s day.
For California results.
Krolicki was running for re-election.
And what are 8 GOPers doing running against Berkly?
You betta work biitch.
Still not happy, but If she doesnt appear to fail too horribly, I’ll send her a few dollars. She really sucks, but Id hate to see her go nonetheless. Bleh. 🙁 If I cant get my liberals, my girls come next.
Harris ahead of Kelly 29-18.
And some not-so-good news for us: Cooley’s running away with the GOP nod at 53%.
Just curious, who would his votes have gone to had he not run?
Just wanted to say Chris Nelson was not establishment candidate, Blake Curd was cause he could self-fund.
Angle is going to win. About half the voters voted early so we have well over half the votes counted, I don’t see how Lowden can catch up.
I did not know she was not an American citizen by birth. I demand to see her naturalization papers.
we see some amazing results and pick up CA SD-37. When it was open in 2008, it went 55R-45D.
They put IA-03 candidate Jim Gibbons on their “contender” list and IA-02 candidate Rob Gettemy “on the radar”.
State Senator Brad Zaun destroyed Gibbons in the seven-way IA-03 primary, winning about 45 percent of the vote so far.
2008 nominee Mariannette Miller-Meeks is slightly over 50 percent in the IA-02 race, and Gettemy is dead last of the four candidates for now.
Well with all but 2 precincts left teabagger Anna Little’s lead is down to 88 votes 50.3-49.7 over millionaire Gooch. Gooch said she won’t concede tonight so that’s it for me here,
http://www.accessclarkcounty.c…
36-33
Scientology+ prohibition > than Chickens+ wont answer civil rights act question
Seriously though, if I was a Republican in NV I would be annoyed they didn’t nominate Tarkanian, he seems… sane. The other two are damaged goods.
AD-05: Pugno is ahead with 43% while DeLuz is way back in the penultimate position with 10.5%.
AD-30: Fran Florez is ahead 52-48. I don’t care who wins here, but I just hope we won’t have enough acrimony to tip this seat to Team Red again.
AD-36: Jones is running away with 60%. Name rec methinks.
I can’t wait until AD-68 comes in.
Dunn crushing Taitz 75%-25%
seems to favor right-leaning areas (by California standards):
Colusa 1,755
Contra Costa 84,244
Del Norte 3,387
El Dorado 10,016
Fresno 40,897
Lake 6,151
Los Angeles 239,769
Madera 13,393
Marin 27,598
Merced 11,719
Napa 13,536
Placer 48,262
Sacramento 132,800
San Benito 4,094
San Diego 203,338
San Joaquin 47,794
San Luis Obispo 30,800
Santa Barbara 39,140
Solano 31,427
Stanislaus 29,085
Tulare 13,621
Yolo 16,513
(all others 0)
Total 1,049,362
Kamala Harris is destroying in NorCal and about tied in SoCal. If she keeps this up she’s golden.
Put up an update on Francine Busby. She is doing well. It is early, but she is still showing well.
did anyone else think Bert Mizusawa was Asian? his last name is definitely Japanese. but I just looked at his website and he’s white.
“If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it’s him.”
The rumors have never been proven.
Now up 37-32 with 52% in.
It’s over.
Confession:I haven’t followed much on Angle, what are her major liabilities for the general election? Too politically extreme, not enough funds, something else?
As for SC-01: Tumpy, you can do magic things! (Too bad getting elected is not one of them.)
Why has the AP not called it yet for Womack? He leads 52-48 with all precincts in. Is it headed for a recall or are absentee ballots still being counted?
If there’s one woman in the California delegation who knows how to survive a vigorous teabagging, it’s Ms. Mary Mack.
Btw, your David Dreier teabagging joke is a huge win for democracy and comedy. Which is why I stole it.
chastises Unions for “flushing $10 million down the toilet” in their quest to defeat Lincoln at the Battle of Arkansas.
And what did the unions reply:
Ouch…
I know it’s a minority opinion here but I think it will be good for California. Two years from now California Primary night should be fun here at SSP.
10% for sr and 15% for junior. I could see harry surviving by the skin of his teeth against the loon that is angle, but rory, baring a huge turnaround/event it’s prob over.
With exceptions of Angle and probably Little, good night for Republicans. OK night for me, as Nikki Haley heads to a runoff and Cecile Bledsoe likely lost, but all of my other favored candidates (except for Gooch and Tark/Lowden) won.
Approximately the same number of total precincts reporting, but different ones in each. For example, AP has 152/934 in Alameda and 0/119 in Napa; SoS has 0/934 in Alameda and 117/119 in Napa…
Now this is the wikipedia page of the next Senator from South Carolina!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A…
The Democratic Vietnamese candidate is actually winning while the Republican Vietnamese candidate is getting crushed!
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns…
Thank you to the gods of tomfoolery and wacky elections for giving Sharron Angle the mojo she needed to pull this one off.
Not only did Harry Reid likely just win re-election, but we’ve probably got an early contender for most entertaining election of the year.
i had 52.6 for douche-blanche
It’s Steve Womack, not Roger Womack (but he’s the mayor of Rogers, AR).
think Senator Lincoln deserves a good pat on the back. She ran a great campaign and I hope she does the same in November. Congrats Senator!
looks like both Pan and Pugno will win in the mid-40s.
Don’t know if Pan is pro-marriage equality (not endorsed by EQCA, which is troubling), but I hope he gives Pugno a spanking. The fact that there are more Republican votes is a shame, but I assume the Rs have a registration advantage, and plus they have more competitive statewide primaries.
Rick Berg won the GOP nod to take on Congressman Earl Pomeroy.
Not a bad night for her. Fiorina, Branstad, and Haley won. Bledsoe came a lot closer than she was expected.
In the Superintendent of Public Instruction. I know Tom Torlaksen but I don’t know any of the others.
Who is the progressive candidate? Who is the Creationist?
(actual result in parens) They had Haley 43% (49%), Barrett 23%(22%), McMaster 16% (17%), and Bauer 12% (12%). 7% undecided, most broke for Haley.
Its winning by all of 9k votes right now.
Kelly’s only doing well in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, which have really low turnout and have already mostly reported. And of course his margins are nowhere near enough to cancel out what Harris is pulling out of the Bay Area.
http://www.rga.org/homepage/rg…
finally swinging Prop 16 from Yes to No on the SoS website!
But then I remember how obscenely huge that state is and how thankfully rarely we have close races there.
Harman 61.9-38.1 Winograd, 15.0% in.
San Benito county because it mirrors generally the state overall. Currently, it’s too close to call for both prop 16 and prop 17 with prop 16 slightly losing.
the people counting the votes in Humboldt county must be stoned right now….
Denham looks good to do. He’s flattening in Mariposa and Stanislaus, and together those have more precincts outstanding than Fresno.
according to Nate Silver at 538.com, Research 2000 is one of the worst pollsters out there….even Rasmussen beats them in accuracy.
Markos is even thinking of changing pollsters.
http://twitter.com/markos/stat…
and since LA is settling down, it needs to keep a big lead in Orange, San Bernardino, and San Diego to win (h/t phensley). If each of those slips a few points from their standings earlier tonight, I think it’s over. Will be watching closely!
Considering the controversy around Richardson, I think 65% is a pretty good showing. I’m surprised a stronger candidate hasn’t challanged her. Maybe next year.
Is it a known bellwether in CA? The GOP Senate candidates have the exact same percentages in Santa Barbara as statewide.
49.8/50.2, per CA SoS
It’s only a matter of personal pride in my prognosticating ability now, but Winograd just broke 40 against Harman: 59.5-40.5 with 66.9% in.
even though 17 is tighter than 16 statewide, No is now leading on 17 by 53-47 in LA County, while No on 16 has pulled ahead very narrowly there.
I’m officially declaring victory for NO on Prop 16.
I cannot believe how they were so close to passing. At least it looks like they won’t.
Kinda a mixed bag tonight in CA, on the plus side, Campbell didn’t come out of nowhere to win the GOP primary (that would have been very bad), but Aanestad didn’t win the GOP primary for LG (that would have been very good.
Kinda sad that Taintz didn’t win in the SOS GOP primary though. Would have definitely motivated some liberals to come out on election day to keep her out of office.
I’m kinda WTFing right now when I looked and saw that Tom Torlakson didn’t win by the landslide I expected him to, but that he is actually down by 30,000 votes.
Interesting night.
All the propositions are going the right way (although I know people disagree about 14).
Meg just spent 85 million dollars to win by…. FORTY points! LOL
Carly is a weak opponent for Boxer, this one goes into the Likely Dem category.
Busby is california’s Dan Seals… third time better be a charm, but at least she won the primary convincingly.
Calvert loses 1/3 of the GOP vote (as do jerry lewis and Wally Herger).
Harman wins, but at least it wasn’t close.
Pombo embarrassed.
AG and LG are the statewide concerns… in part because the overall ticket (Brown, Boxer, Newsom, Harris) is waaaaaaaaaaaaay to San Francisco heavy.
Look at this map:
http://www.pge.com/myhome/cust…
then look at this map:
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/maps/pr…
People who had PG&E as their utility hate the company and are eager to vote against, even in rather conservative areas.
By contrast, Los Angeles County was the only county outside the service area to vote no. That could be the liberalism of the county, but I suspect the fact that the City of Los Angeles has successfully run its own power company for decades, with money flowing from the power company to the city coffers and not the other way, probably had something to do with it too.
Maine. It seems that moderate republicans for the second time in a row split their vote very “nicely” (between Abbott, Mills and Otten (may be with some votes for Poliquin)), and as a result the leading conservative (at least – social conservative, though he didn’t stressed the subject as much as some others) – LePage, won rather easily (38% against 17 for Otten). That. probably, makes Libby Mitchell’s (winner of Democratic primary) task somewhat easier – usually Maine doesn’t vote for socialy conservative Republicans in general elections. We shall see.
New Jersey. I wanted to say “nothing interesting”, but it seems that “establishment candidate” in NJ-06 narrowly lost to teabaggers-supported candidate. Other “establishment candidates” (in NJ-03, 09 and 12) – won, but not especially convincingly. The same is true for many incumbents, Lance, for example, won renomination with about 56% of vote.
Virginia. “Establishment candidates” won all “important races”, i.e. – VA-02 and VA-05. Will teabagger’s threat of independent conservative candidacies be real???
South Carolina. One of the most intersted states yesterday. Haley won big and, probably (in absence of very big sex-scandal), is a next governor (despite very strong showing by Sheheen in Democratic primary) of this state. Candidate unknown almost to everyone wins Democratic Senate primary (not that it matters much, but still). Inglis is almost surely finished as a representative from SC-04.Scott-Thurmond runoff in SC-01: black candidate against son of former leading segregationist. Big surprise for me – 1st place in SC-03 of Richard Cash. even ahead of CfG “darling” Jeff Duncan.
Georgia (special). Nothing really interesting, the more wingnut candidatewith more money won as many expected.
North Dakota. Nothing interesting.
South Dakota. Expected Daugaard victory in Republican governor primary and rather unexpected – of Kristi Noem in SD-AL.
Iowa. Nothing absolutely unexpected, but Branstad victory over Vander Plaats was much narrower then in must be theoretically. Rather convincing victory of Zaun and loud defeat of Gibbons in IA-03, republican leadership again bet on wrong horse..
Arkansas (runoffs). Liberals and netroots got their preferred (in runoff) candidates in AR-01 and AR-02, though i still consider Elliott, who again won only one county, but won it big, a serious underdog against Griffin. It’s easy to imagine mass defections of Wills’s supporters to Griffin in November, and general electorate in AR-02 in November will be much more conservative then Democratic primary electorate yesterday. The defection of Wooldridge supporters to Crawford will be considerably smaller, in part – because of center-right image of Causey. AR-03 – the slightly saner (or at least so he seems to me, despite his position on immigration) candidate won. Of course – liberals and netroots missed their “biggest” and most “desired” scalp with Lincoln victory. Most likely that will not matter after Nov. 2, but who knows…
Montana. Nothing to speak about.
Nevada. Harry Reid got his preferred opponent (though it’s not clear that after “chicken’s story” Lowden wouldn’t be even more preferrable) and improved his reelection chances, but Rory Reid – didn’t and is, probably, a heavy underdog against Sandoval.
California. Nothing unexpected on highest level. Boxer is more safe against Fiorina then she would be against Campbell, despite him being a chronically bad fundraiser.. Republicans probably got heir best candidates in CA-11 and CA-19, as well as in some statewide races, like Attorney General and Lt. Governor. Some surprising results – for example for Superintendent of Public Instructions, or (IMHO) – republican primary for Insurance Commissioner….
As usually – detailed analysis (state legislatures and so on) “belongs” to local experts…
First, Progressives in Arkansas who supported Halter NEED to unite around Lincoln. She may not be our perfered candidate, but she’s better then the alternative. If the people who supported both Lincoln and Halter come out and support just Lincoln, this one isn’t over. Granted, it’s a uphill climb, but everyone thought Lincoln was dead in the water once.
California: Orly Taitz not winning SoS hurts, because she would have brought down the entire Republican Party in California. Still, I’m not sold on the Republicans candidates that are in place, and while Brown and Boxer aren’t well liked, I think Dems should be able to win both races out there. The props not passing was epic win,
Nevada: The Tea Party just handed Harry Reid another 6 years. Angle isn’t well known in Las Vegas – Reid is going to start really hammering her in that area.
South Carolina: I actually expected Haley to avoid a run-off, but it’s good that she didn’t. Still, I’m oddly attracted to Nikki Haley (may just be her look, but there could be something to her ability to speak). I would never vote for her, but there’s just something about her that has me swooning.
Thank you Nevada for giving us the gift known as Sharron Angle. She’ll even be more of a joke than Sue “Bawk Bawk” Lowden.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
Good – Fiorina, Causey, Angle, LePage.
Bad – Lincoln, Elliott, Sandoval, Noem, Brandstad, Greene.
With two Democrats facing off in November…no idea if Torlakson or Aceves is better, though.
The failure of Prop 15 in California will have a major impact for the redistricting for Congressional seats. Its failure means that the nonpartisan redistricting commision for the state will not redistrict congressional districts, but only state legislative districts.
This will, assuming Jerry Brown wins his contest against money for governor, mean that the Democratic Party will be able to significantly increase the number of Democratic seats for 2012 from California, although the state as a whole will retain 53 seats with no change.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
If they can afford SurveyUSA this could be excellent news.
The CA GOP ticket has to be one of the most diverse in the country. They have a female Sen, Gov, and Treasurer nominee, a Hispanic Lt. Gov nominee, and an African-American SoS nominee. The only two white guys on the ticket are Controller nominee Tony Strickland and AG nominee Steve Cooley.