In my latest U.S. Senate projections, posted a few weeks back, I noted my belief that, despite recent polls showing otherwise, I believe Republican Marco Rubio will claim victory over Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the upcoming Florida Senate race. Though most polling has shown Crist with a modest lead over Rubio and Meek trailing way behind, I’ve been thinking, for several reasons, such may prove short lived.
For one, the bulk of Crist’s impressive support in these polls has stemmed from registered Democrats. Though the centrist Governor could surely win over conservaDems and even many moderate Democrats come the Fall, my suspicion is Meek, a progressive Congressman, will ultimately clean up among the liberals who make up a majority of the Dem electorate. Per CNN polling from 2008, self-identified liberals make up 51% of Florida Dems, with 37% moderates and 13% conservatives. If Meek can hold liberals and win over half of the moderate vote, he’ll defeat Crist 3-to-1 among the total Dem vote, forcing Crist to turn elsewhere in getting the necessary votes.
That “elsewhere” may not necessarily be the party Crist just abandoned.
If you believe the polls, Rubio, the fmr. Florida House Speaker, has already shored-up the vast majority of the GOP vote, leaving Crist with about 20% of his old party’s base. For Crist to pull off a win, this probably cannot be the case. Keep in mind, in Sen. Joe Lieberman’s Independent bid for re-election in 2006, he held onto roughly a third of the Democratic vote, stemmed largely from moderate and conservative Dems. Per that same 2008 CNN primary poll, 61% of Florida Republicans are self-identified conservatives, with 28% moderates and 11% liberals. For a Crist victory, I suspect he’ll need to clean-up among both liberals and moderates, the latter of which could be difficult as the Governor moves toward the left in his quest to win over Democrats.
Unsurprisingly, the most key factor of all for Crist will be the Independent vote, which makes up about 30% of the Florida electorate and, typically, decides statewide elections here. Polls show Crist with a decent lead among this group and, should he hold onto this lead, he’ll surely have a fighting chance at triumph. The question is, can the Governor win over conservative non-affiliates who might find Rubio attractive too? Or, likewise, liberal Indies who are intrigued by Meek? It’s a fine ideological balance Crist must somehow pull off. Move to the center-left? Maintain that slightly right-of-center stance he established in his Gubernatorial tenture?
Whatever the case, I currently think Rubio, one of the hottest GOP commodities on the scene, will eek out a win.
My current thoughts on an electoral breakdown here are, as follows…
Republican – 37%
Democrat – 35%
Independent – 28%
Crist – 15%/35%/45% = 31%
Meek – 0%/60%/15% = 25%
Rubio – 85%/5%/40% = 44%
Crist’s dream scenario probably mirrors something more along the lines of…
Democrat – 35%
Republican – 35%
Independent – 30%
Crist – 65%/25%/55% = 49%
Meek – 30%/0%/10% = 14%
Rubio – 5%/75%/35% = 37%
As you see, Meek and Rubio are relatively stable in their margins, at ranges of 14%-25% and 37-44%, respectively. In all likelihood, neither could win in a two-way match. Crist, on the other hand, has very erratic numbers, with a range of 31%-49%. Such guarantees at least second-place finish, but also means Crist requires 37% to even remain competitive against Rubio.
Such a model assumes a) Meek implodes among registered Dems (much like Republican Alan Schlesinger in that ’06 CT race), b) Crist wins over moderate Republicans, and c) Crist overwhelmingly wins among non-affilated voters. For the time being, I just don’t see Meek as anemic as Schlesinger, and I suspect, amid such an anti-incumbent environment, moderate GOP-ers may prefer Rubio over the sitting Governor. I imagine Crist is ahead among non-affiliateds, but not by enough to run up the necessary margins.
I don’t think Crist pulled off his party switch well enough to drag Republican voters with him.
But I could be wrong, and if Crist emphasizes Rubio’s extremeness, Crist could potentially beat back Rubio among moderate Republicans.
Everyone, including me, thought Crist’s turn toward indy would be a quixotic one, doomed from the start.
And then something unexpected happened: Crist got a polling bounce from his opportunistic abandonment of the GOP.
And something equally unexpected has happened: the bounce is lasting, he’s not falling back to earth.
And 2 polls today confirm Crist’s resilience. Quinnipiac has Crist up 37-33 on Rubio, and Rasmussen has it tied at 37-37; both polls show Meek in the mid-teens.
The thing I’ve noticed that’s been the key to Crist’s endurance is his job approval rating, which is not only good but unusual in its makeup. He’s in the 50s with Democrats, in the 50s or 60s with indies, and still in the 40s with Republicans. And these numbers have held up in ALL polling.
In vote share Crist has been consistently getting at least one-quarter and up to one-third of Republicans, splitting Democrats roughly evenly on average with Meek, and splitting indies roughly evenly on average with Rubio.
I really think if there’s no blowback against Crist from the Greer charges, he might just end up winning this thing.
And, being the pragmatic liberal that I am, if Meek can’t win (and right now it looks like he absolutely cannot win), then I’ll happily take Crist as a Dem-caucusing indie. Frankly, a Crist victory is a Democratic pickup UNLESS the Republicans surprise and recruit him to their caucus, which I can’t see them doing.
out of the Senate and very possibly even higher offices.
So I’m more than willing to root for Crist over Meek if that can be done. (Plus it seems likely, though maybe not for certain, he’d caucus with us Dems in the Senate).
I’m just not sure yet on Crist’s real chances, because he has literally no infrastructure nor ground game apparatus at the moment, which both major party candidates obviously have.