SSP Daily Digest: 6/14 (Afternoon Edition)

• CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Leftover from last Friday is the most recent Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut. Without much changing from their previous poll other than some within-the-margin-of-error gains for Linda McMahon, the poll is very digestible. Richard Blumenthal leads McMahon 55-35 (instead of 56-31 in late May), leads Rob Simmons (who has “suspended” his campaign) 54-33, and leads Peter Schiff 56-29. McMahon leads Simmons and Schiff in the GOP primary 45-29-13. They also included gubernatorial primaries (but not the general): for the Dems, Ned Lamont leads Dan Malloy 39-22, while for the GOP Tom Foley leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 39-12-2.

• IL-Sen: With a growing sense that many Illinois residents would prefer to vote for neither Mark Kirk nor Alexi Giannoulias, a new right-winger with money to burn looks like he’s daring to go where Patrick Hughes didn’t. Mike Niecestro says he’s a “disgusted Republican who has had it with the people the party throws at us,” and differentiates himself from Kirk on cap-and-trade and immigration. Just another random teabagger who’s all talk and no $$$? No, Niecestro says he already has the 25,000 signatures he needs to qualify before the June 21 deadline, and also has $1 million of his own money ready to go, along with another $100K he’s raised elsewhere. Even if he winds up pulling in only a few percent off Kirk’s right flank, that could be what that Giannoulias needs to squeak by in what otherwise looks to be a close race.

• NV-Sen: Jon Scott Ashjian is turning into something of the white whale for the Nevada GOP. Even though his candidate lost the primary, Dan Burdish, former political director for Sue Lowden, is still filing complaints with the SoS’s office to get Ashjian off the ballot. It doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere, though; Ashjian himself has qualified for the ballot, easily meeting the low 250-vote signature hurdle even though the “Tea Party” didn’t meet the signature requirements for its own ballot line. Of course, competing right-wing third party the Independent American Party is still trying to get Ashjian off the ballot too, and now the teabaggers in general have turned on Ashjian (who never really had much support from them in the first place) since one of their own, Sharron Angle, managed to snare the GOP nod.

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena has yet another poll out of both the Senate races in New York. There’s still very little of interest to report. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 48-27, David Malpass 49-24, and Joe DioGuardi 47-29. DioGuardi leads the GOP primary over Blakeman and Malpass, 21-7-3. Chuck Schumer leads Jay Townsend 60-26 and Gary Berntsen 59-27. Townsend leads Berntsen in the other GOP primary, 20-15.

• SC-Sen: Vic Rawl, who lost the Democratic nomination to the baffling Alvin Greene last week, is now formally contesting the results of the election. The state party’s 92-member executive committee will meet on Thursday to hear evidence, but it’s unlikely they’ll do anything, as there’s no precedent in South Carolina for throwing out a primary election’s results.

• WA-Sen: The state GOP convention was over the weekend in Washington; unlike, say, Utah or Connecticut, there’s nothing at stake here, but the general sense in terms of signage, applause, and the like, was that the party’s activist base is pretty jazzed about Sarah Palin-endorsed Clint Didier, and much more tepid about Dino Rossi than they were in 2008, when he was a more apt vehicle for their resentments. A straw poll at a Patriot Coalition event associated with the convention (a subset of a subset of the most hardcore base, so take with much salt) gave Didier a 99-12 edge over Rossi.

• AL-Gov: Artur Davis isn’t giving up on being a douchebag just because he lost the gubernatorial nomination; he said he isn’t sure how Ron Sparks is going to be able to win the uphill fight in the general election, and that Sparks will need something “broader than bingo” to win. Also, this is a very strange time to be making any major staff changes, let alone plunging into what Reid Wilson is describing as “turmoil:” fresh off the triumph of (probably) making the GOP gubernatorial runoff against Bradley Byrne, Robert Bentley just sacked his campaign manager, communications director, and new media director. Bentley is bringing in members of the Mike Huckabee camp to take over (with Huckabee son-in-law Bryan Sanders the new CM), but it seems like his small-time help didn’t get demoted, but instead rudely shown the door by the new bosses.

• CO-Gov: Businessman Joe Gesundheit Schadenfreude Weltschmerz Gschwendtner has pulled the plug on his Republican gubernatorial bid, without endorsing anybody else. He wasn’t able to round up enough signatures to qualify, which is odd, considering that people only need to be able to spell their own names, not his.

• FL-Gov: With his once-clear path to the GOP nomination suddenly looking to be on life support, Bill McCollum got some help from a key GOP establishment figure: Mitt Romney. Romney will appear at two Sunshine State fundraisers today, handing out endorsements like candy to a number of other Republicans in better position too.

• IA-Gov: You may recall that, in the wake of Terry Branstad’s closer-than-expected victory over social conservative Bob vander Plaats, we lamented that the Dems didn’t try any Gray Davis-style meddling in the primary to get the more-conservative, less-electable guy over the top. Well, it turns out they did try a little of that; the Dems launched an independent expenditure committee called “Iowans for Responsible Government” that ran ads on Fox News and sent direct mail attacking Branstad for tax hikes and putting his face on a liberal Mt. Rushmore next to Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi. While it didn’t seal the deal, it may have contributed to the underwhelming showing by Branstad.

• MI-Gov: AG Mike Cox won the endorsement of Michigan Right to Life, a big endorsement that will help him as he fights for the social conservative vote in the GOP primary with Rep. Peter Hoekstra. Cox might be the Republican we most want to face out of the GOP field; Rasmussen joined the crowd today in finding that he polls the weakest against either Democrat.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena also polled the gubernatorial race; again, nothing noteworthy here, other than Andrew Cuomo having lost a few points since last time. Cuomo leads Rick Lazio 60-24, and leads Carl Paladino 65-23. Party-endorsed Lazio leads Paladino (assuming he can successfully petition onto the ballot) in the GOP primary, 45-18. Meanwhile, the race may get slightly more interesting as gadflyish New York city councilor Charles Barron seems to be moving forward on his quixotic plans to create a whole third party (New York Freedom Democratic Party) for a challenge to the left, mostly to protest Cuomo putting together an all-white ticket.

• OH-Gov: Incumbent Dem Ted Strickland won the NRA endorsement today, instead of GOP ex-Rep. John Kasich. That may seem a surprise, but Strickland has a lifetime “A” rating from the NRA while Kasich was always an unusually anti-gun Republican.

• GA-12: The Hill details how Rep. John Barrow’s fundraising from fellow Dems has fallen way off this year, perhaps an indication of blowback over his “no” vote on HCR. He’s only gotten money directly from five Democratic colleagues and five others’ PACs, compared with 53 in 2006 and 22 in 2008. (An alternative explanation, of course, is that he’s in no major trouble in the general election this year and that money may be more needed elsewhere.) Barrow still has the AFL-CIO’s endorsement, and about a 20:1 CoH advantage over primary challenger Regina Thomas. Speaking of one of his minor GOP opponents, Carl Smith, the fire chief of the small town of Thunderbolt, has a less-appealing resume now that he just got canned by his city council, which opted to stop paying for a fire department and return to an all-volunteer operation.

• IN-03: The Indiana state GOP met over the weekend to pick a nominee to fill the spot left behind by the resigned Rep. Mark Souder. It wasn’t much of a surprise: they picked state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, an up-and-comer who gave Dan Coats a challenge in the GOP Senate primary. Stutzman won on the second ballot, with state Rep. Randy Borror a distant second. It was a double pick: Stutzman will be replace Souder as the GOP candidate in the general election, and also will be the GOP’s candidate in the special election that will also be held on Election Day in November (which, assuming he wins, will allow him to serve in the post-election lame duck session).

• NC-02: Rep. Bob Etheridge, usually one of the more low-key members of the House, had an embarrassing flip-out in front of two GOP trackers/college students asking him if he “supported the Obama agenda,” grabbing one of them and his camera. Etheridge subsequently issued a statement apologizing.

• Polltopia: PPP is soliciting opinions on where the poll next, both multiple-choice and open-ended. Let ’em know what burning questions you’d like answered.

128 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 6/14 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. with some money could make it interesting.  Whether he gets that money is the million dollar question.  Rossi isn’t as revered by Washington Republicans as Thompson and Pataki are with Wisconsin and New York Republicans.

    I suppose the odd primary system in Washington could benefit Didier.

  4. From Stateline.org: Term limits will create rookie league in some legislatures

    http://www.stateline.org/live/…

    Highlights from the article:

    The longest serving member or Dean of the (state) Senate in Michigan will be age 39

    76% of the Michigan State Senators will be replaced, not counting election losses.

    34 of the 110 members of the House of Representatives are term-limited, too.

    Come January, Michigan will have a new Senate majority leader and a new House speaker to go along with a new governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

    In Nevada term limits are kicking in for the first time, with one-third of the Senate and one-quarter of the Assembly, including Speaker Barbara Buckley, barred from reelection.

    Nationally, 378 legislators in 14 states are term-limited this year, according to an analysis by the National Conference of State Legislatures. The list includes 194 Republicans, 180 Democrats and four from other (or no) parties. It is heavy on legislative leadership.

    House speakers are term-limited in 10 states: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota. Senate leaders, such as presidents or majority leaders, are term-limited in another 10: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota. Many of these leaders’ replacements, meanwhile, will be working with newcomers in the executive branch: Of the 37 governor’s seats being contested this year, 24 are open. There is a very good chance that a majority of the governors in 2011 will be just starting out in the job.

  6. I think it is stupid that this is now standard practice. Members of Congress have enough on there plates without having a bunch of hacks following them around with cameras. It is really stupid and is only going to get worse. I don’t blame Etheridge, I would love to let that kid know what I thought too but all the same he should have known better. The kid got what he wanted I’m sure. I bet he just loves getting his five minuets of fame, wanna bet he’s on fox tonight? Seriously he will, mark my words, probably Hannity maybe Glenn or Bill O. I hate the gottcha tactics and they are a problem on both sides.  Enough is enough.  

  7. I do think Cox is the weakest Repulbican but Hoekstra wasn’t doing much better.  Against Bernero, Hoekstra actually polled worse than Cox.  

    While the Repulbican candidates still lead, it’s good news that the Democratic candidates are as close as they are to the 2 mostly likely Repulbican nominees.  The Democrats are more unknown and haven’t really started campaigning much.  The Republican candidates, however, have already spent several million dollars advertising and have had a more active campaign.  The Democratic race should be getting more active soon so it will be interesting to see how their increased name recognition effects polling.  

    Snyder polled the best for Republicans but I would be surprised if he’s able to win the primary.  I think he would have big problems in the general (outsourcing) so he may not be as strong as the polling indicates.  

  9. From the info so far, IMO he seems like a plant (probably not by someone directly with the GOP, but maybe by some SC conservative trickster to embarrass Dems, and as a free bonus help DeMint, as if he really needed any).

    But this TPM article: Expert: Obscenity Charge Brought Against Alvin Greene Extremely Rare is making me wonder about his obscenity charge. At a minimum it seems an extreme prosecution by that SC DA.

    If TPM is accurate, Greene’s felony obscenity “crime” seems ludicrously overblown. That incident should be at best maybe a civil suit of sexual harassment by that woman (and in the real world she should’ve maybe just given him the finger and walked away).  

  11. The SC Democratic Party needs to look at what the Tennessee Democratic Executive Committee did in a 2008 State Senate primary between incumbent Rosalind Kurita and Tim Barnes. Kurita won a close primary over Barnes after she cast the critical vote to give Republican Ron Ramsey the Senate Speakership/Lt. Governorship over LG John Wilder. The TN Democratic Executive Committee over-turned the results over reported irregularities and fears of Republican cross-over votes, as the Rs gave her a pass in the general as a reward for her vote and no big R primaries were on the ballot. Barnes went on to win the general election despite a write-in campaign and a lawsuit challenging the ruling by Kurita.

  12. will poll Georgia, Maine, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, or Wisconsin this weekend.

    So get over there and vote for one.  

  13. on Whitman, then he’s probably up a good 8-10 points in reality.

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/p…

    Brown seems to have the one thing politicians value: the ability to make gaffes and be forgiven for them.  Californians will probably take whatever gaffe from Brown as “Jerry being Jerry.”

    This race would be very different if the LA mayor or Newsome were Whitman’s opponents.

  14. Charles Barron is an obnoxious provocateur who’s biggest hobby is race-baiting. And this is coming from someone who dislikes both Cuomo (he’s fucking over the WFP for no other apparent reason than because he can) and NYC Council Speaker Christine Quinn (who he talked about trying to unseat last year). Barron is basically the kind of person that the Right imagines Al Sharpton or Jessee Jackson to be.

    And calling it the “New York Freedom Democratic Party” is particularly despicable for its comparison of the modern New York Democratic Party, where we have an all-white slate for no other reason than that no minority candidate wanted to run, and where we have a black governor and a black state senate leader, with the Mississippi Democratic Party of the 1960’s, where segregation was institutionalized.

    (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M…

  15. http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

    McMaster will endorse Haley tomorrow. The only way Barrett could have made it would be to pick up all of McMaster and Bauer’s supporters, and since that was never gonna happen, and will definitely not happen now, he’s screwed. If he was smart he’d pack up and prepare to primary Graham in 2014.  

  16. has a violent streak?

    In June 2007, an eBay employee claimed that Ms. Whitman became angry and forcefully pushed her in an executive conference room at eBay’s headquarters, according to multiple former eBay employees with knowledge of the incident. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the matter was delicate and was deemed to be strictly confidential.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06…

    No Meg, if you ever manage to buy your way into the governor’s seat you cannot physically shove Steinberg or Perez out of your office during budget negotiations and you can’t fire them either.  

  17. Nunnelee leads Childers 50%-42% according to a GOP poll, which is down from a 51%-42% Childers lead in March.   http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…

    I know its a GOP poll, but looking at polling from OH-01, IL-11, NM-02, NV-03, MI-07, OH-16 and now MS-01, it wouldnt surprise me if most of the Democratic freshman class of 2008 is wiped out.  Im just waiting to see polling that puts Mary Jo Kilroy and Suzanne Kosmas down 15 points.  

  18. Crist is setting himself up as the luckiest candidate in America.  I was part of the giant bipartisan crew of head-shakers who figured Crist as an indy would be quixotic, that he would tank and embarrass himself.

    Instead, he gets closer to a November victory every freakin’ week!

    Jeff Greene really is Crist’s savior against Meek.  Meek either will go broke winning the primary with no time or ability to raise money fast for November, or Greene will win the primary and send all the Democrats Charlie needs permanently into Charlie’s arms.

    Meanwhile, Rubio comes out still favoring offshore drilling, which wasn’t a bad calculation even in May when public opinion still showed majority support despite a significant decline.  But public opinion has NOT stopped moving, and Rubio’s position juxtaposed against Crist demanding a public referendum on banning it off Florida’s coastline is shaping up as a big advantage for Crist.  As much as this oil spill has hamstrung Obama and threatened Team Blue in the midterms as a result, the fact is it’s only helped Crist.

    They say “luck” is where preparation meets opportunity.  Well Crist sure prepared, and Jeff Greene, Rubio’s hard right conservatism, and the oil spill are providing Crist will all the opportunity he needs.

    I’m almost openly rooting for Crist in November now, and I hope his next fundraising report shows decent progress in money raised and cash-on-hand.  If he’s got the cash he needs for TV in the late summer and fall, then he’s going to be in the driver’s seat.

  20. Is there any current instance of a Congressman where their daughter or son is a statewide elected official?  I can’t think of one.  I can think of two that the situation can happen to them after the November election.  South Carolina Congressman Joe Wilson with his son being elected Attorney General of South Carolina and Texas Congressman Ron Paul with his son being elected United States Senator from Kentucky.  

  21. WOW, Scotty has the no name who beat the front runner for the Republican nomination in SD-AL beating Herseth-Sandlin by 12!!! Points!

    Is this guy even serious?

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