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Roughly one month ago – can you believe how this summer is flying by? – I released a new set of U.S. Senate projections, giving Democrats a 53-47 seat edge over the GOP. Since then, we’ve had a boatload of primaries, a few more candidate scandals, and, yet, on the whole, my sentiment on Democratic strength remains about the same.
For the month of June, I’m opting to give the Dems a more narrow 52-48 hold upon the U.S. Senate. While such is hardly a cause for celebration, it’s also not a particularly catastrophic development, and, despite the closeness in tally, my suspicion is actually that the GOP’s climb to that magical 51-vote majority is in fact only getting steeper.
Why the contradiction? Well, before I delve into any specific, race-by-race analysis, let me first point out the races which have, over the course of the past month, either a) moved in ranking and/or b) flipped in favor of the other candidate.
Dem Upgrades:
CT-Sen – Lean Dem -> Likely Dem
FL-Sen – Toss-up (Rubio edge) -> Toss-up (Crist edge)
IL-Sen – Lean GOP -> Toss-up (Kirk edge)
LA-Sen – Safe GOP -> Likely GOP
NY-Sen (B) – Likely Dem -> Safe Dem
GOP Upgrades:
AZ-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP
IA-Sen – Likely GOP -> Safe GOP
IN-Sen – Toss-up (Ellsworth edge) -> Toss-up (Coats edge)
KY-Sen – Toss-up (Conway edge) -> Toss-up (Paul edge)
WI-Sen – Likely Dem -> Lean Dem
My suspicion is, while Republicans are very likely to win over a majority of so-called “toss-ups” come the fall, their odds of actually winning back the U.S. Senate are close to non-existent. I say this, because a few supposedly-vulnerable Dems – Richard Blumenthal and Kirsten Gillibrand in particular – are looking more and more unbeatable as the season rolls onward. For the GOP to claim victory, this cannot be the case. They can knock off Barbara Boxer, and that only gets them to 49. Have Marco Rubio eek out a victory, thus sweeping every single “toss-up,” and Joe Biden gets to break the 50-50 tie. After all of that, Republicans have two opportunities – in the form of Russ Feingold and Patty Murray – and boy, would that take the perfect storm.
In terms of explanation re: my aforementioned upgrades, let me do a quick run-down on each…
AZ-Sen: It strikes me as highly unlikely that J.D. Hayworth gives the boot to John McCain in this state’s upcoming GOP primary and, thus, I feel it’s prime time to move this into “safe” territory. Rodney Glassman isn’t a particularly bad Democratic candidate – against Hayworth, he could perhaps keep things somewhat competitive – but unless national Democrats can switch the overall narrative in their favor by the fall, it’s tough to see this randomly going blue.
CT-Sen: It doesn’t appear that the Vietnam hooplah over Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is sticking with Connecticut voters, and I suspect for GOP challenger Linda McMahon to have had a realistic shot at victory, she needed a far bigger bounce when that story was at its hottest. Now, the Blumenthal buzz has fizzled, and McMahon’s still trailing by about twenty points. Two factors keep me from moving this to Safe Dem: 1) Blumenthal is absolutely dreadful on the campaign stump and 2) there’s a very good chance Sen. Joe Lieberman backs McMahon. Still, this is looking like a huge stretch for Republicans.
FL-Sen: Even if Rep. Kendrick Meek survives his now-competitive primary vs. oddball businessman Jeff Greene, it’s looking awfully plausible, if not probable that Charlie Crist nets sizable support among registered Democrats come November. With Marco Rubio’s campaign feeling curiously-flat since Crist’s launch of an Independent bid, it doesn’t seem too far beyond the realm that the incumbent Governor can prevail, even in such an anti-incumbent cycle.
IA-Sen: Much like in Arizona, the Democrats have coalesced around an attractive candidate, attorney Roxanne Conlin, but there’s no reason to believe she can prevail in an environment which appears awfully cool to Democrats. Chuck Grassley isn’t the most popular guy out there, and it says something that I kept him out of “safe” territory for so long. Alas, until I see national Dems pumping money into this thing, I have to presume he is safe.
IL-Sen: With a new Public Policy Polling survey showing the Green Party candidate netting 14% in this race, it’s awfully difficult to attain a real grasp around this race. Both Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are supremely unpopular, dogged by controversies which even trump Blumenthal’s, and with all of this lukewarm feeling, there’s speculation that third-party candidates could play a real factor. For now, I suspect Kirk can win in this particular cycle, and he’ll have to play by the Peter Fitzgerald book, used to trump Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun in the ’98 U.S. Senate race. Nonetheless, this has “toss-up” written all over it.
IN-Sen: With a sterling candidate like Brad Ellsworth, Democrats have a real shot at holding Evan Bayh’s seat, but, at least for the time being, I’m just not sensing the pro-Ellsworth excitement that’ll be necessary to prevail in a conservative-leaning state. Don’t get me wrong – Dan Coats is one very flawed candidate, and it’ll be a miracle if he can somehow connect with the Tea Party crowd. Alas, in this environment, and with the state’s conservative voting-streak, I have to give the slight (and I mean super-slight) edge to Coats.
KY-Sen: Much like Indiana, I suspect this one’s a legitimate barnburner, the GOP candidate is flawed, the Democrat is terrific, and, nonetheless, considering the state’s conservative nature, I suspect it’s simply less risky to side with the Republican. For now.
LA-Sen: As I wrote in a recent column, I think Democrat Charlie Melancon poses a real threat to incumbent Republican David Vitter, and, thus, I’m moving him up a bit in my rankings. The state’s conservative lean will continue to strain on Melancon’s chances of actually prevailing, but recent polling does show him surging quite a bit, and who knows what kind of political implications this disaster-plagued environment carries.
NY-Sen (B): This has been a decision in-the-making for quite a while now. While Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election numbers are still a tad underwhelming, the New York GOP is so anemic and dysfunctional that it seems almost a joke to continue viewing her as vulnerable. To put it bluntly, the New York Republican Party just can’t get its shit together. All of the potential challengers – Bruce Blakeman, Joe DioGuardi, and David Malpass – are strictly third-rate material.
WI-Sen: Russ Feingold has a history of pulling out squeaker victories, and while I could just as easily say “I expect no less this time around,” the truth is, I think Feingold’s probably up in the high, comfortable single-digits. Still, the environment is just so anti-incumbent, and Wisconsin conservatives will always have it out for Feingold, an unabashed, albeit somewhat unpredictable liberal. I actually think Republicans caught a lucky break when the uber-establishment fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson opted to pass on the race. At least here, they can mount an outsider.
Please feel free to comment upon and challenge my rankings. I’m sure many, for instance, will find themselves aghast at my prediction that Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid. My full ranking run-down is, as follows…
D – 52
R – 48
Safe Dem (>20% victory) :
Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)
Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)
New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)
New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)
Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > law professor Jim Huffman
Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > businessman Len Britton
Likely Dem (10-20% victory):
Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon
Lean Dem (5-10% victory):
Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi
Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)
Toss-up:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Buck (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)
Florida – Gov. Charlie Crist (I) > fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)
Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk (R) > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)
Indiana – fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R) > Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Kentucky – eye surgeon Rand Paul (R) > Attorney General Jack Conway (D)
Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)
Nevada – fmr. Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)
Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)
Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)
Lean GOP (5-10% victory):
New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes
North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
Likely GOP (10-20% victory):
Arkansas – Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln
Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Castle County Executive Chris Coons
Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon
Safe GOP (>20% victory):
Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Attorney William Barnes
Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)
Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman
Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)
Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > businessman Tom Sullivan
Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin
Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)
North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > State Sen. Tracy Potter
Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)
South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > military veteran Alvin Greene
South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > unopposed
Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > businessman Sam Granato
Dem-held
Safe GOP: ND
Likely GOP: AR
Lean GOP: DE
Tossup/Tilt GOP: IN, CO
Tossup/Tilt Dem: NV, IL, PA
Lean Dem: WA
Likely Dem: WI, CA, CT
GOP-held
Tossup-Tilt Dem: OH, FL, MO
Tossup-Tilt GOP: KY
Lean GOP: NC, NH
Likely GOP: AZ, IA, LA
IL-Sen: I STRONGLY disagree with you on this one. This is pure tossup, no lean at all for Kirk. It’s a liberal state and Obama’s own state, and those things greatly offset the national environment in this particular place. Polling, even Rasmussen’s, consistently shows not only Obama’s approval but also things like health care reform polling stronger here than in other comparable states. And enough has happened with Broadway Bank already that if it was going to be Alexi’s complete undoing, he wouldn’t be polling in a dead heat right now. All this doesn’t even consider the rich right-wing businessman who reportedly is set to get on the ballot soon and plop down over $1.1 million into a campaign war chest right away. If he really gets in and really has the money to spend, then this moves immediately to lean Dem. And for my bottom-line prediction on who wins, I do think Giannoulias eeks it out, or maybe wins comfortably if the right-wing indy gets serious about spending money.
LA-Sen: I’m not ready to trust the new PPP poll on this one, I think Vitter is still very safe in an anti-Democratic year in a very conservative, anti-Obama state that was very conservative and anti-Obama even 2 years ago. Maybe PPP is right and Magellan is whacked, but I’m not ready to reach that conclusion just yet. I need to see more evidence that voter sentiment about the oil spill or Vitter’s poor character is translating into voters moving toward Melancon.
WI-Sen: like Illinois, I strongly disagree with you here. Feingold clearly deserves “likely,” not “lean.” There’s no credible information that he’s in any trouble against Ron Johnson or the others. Unless in his first reelection in 1998, Feingold has a big warchest. And Feingold won 55-44 his last time out, a comfortable victory, and was never considered vulnerable that year even as Bush strongly contested the state for reelection. The only reason I wouldn’t call Feingold “safe” is that Johnson is a self-funder who can buy visibility.
In particular I disagree with the meme that Johnson as an “outsider” is somewhat stronger than Thompson would be. I’m not impressed that these “outsiders,” whether they’re rich self-funders or whackjob teabaggers, can actually win a general election before a scrutinous electorate. Ideological and partisan preferences are stronger, and nonpartisan voters are a decisive factor who don’t exist in primaries. So there’s less room for error for these people, less room for growth, and a much lower ceiling. I don’t doubt for one second that Tommy Thompson would be a much stronger candidate than Johnson. Make no mistake, Feingold breathed a sigh of relief that Thompson stayed out.
NV-Sen: count me in the camp that disagrees strongly with you here. I think Reid wins this one.
I’ve got no serious argument on your other individaul ratings. So I guess that would put my bottom line at 54-46 D. Depressing to me, really, since this is after an improvement in our prospects, and still we’re minus-5. But I can see things going even better for us if our candidates raise enough money and run strong enough campaigns.
Recognizing that my powers of political prediction are not exactly famously accurate:
I’d move these to “Likely D”:
Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi
Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)
I’d move this one to “Lean D”:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
I just don’t see a likelihood that Boxer will be defeated in a state that’s as Democratic as California is today.
I also think that, for now, Indiana and Missouri should both be Lean-R, though that’s subject to change.
diary AndyRoo, although I would expect nothing else coming from you. I don’t blame you for giving the edge to Coats right now, it seems fair, and we do have five months still. The campaign has yet to really begin. I am very glad to see Connecticut back to normal again, that NYT article bordered on slander. I agree with Florida Senate and I am feeling better about that one every day now since Crist is becoming our de facto nominee. I sadly agree with your coverage on Ill Senate, with most candidates Kirk’s military blunder would have given a solid edge but sadly Alexi is seriously flawed as well so it did not do much. I am confused about AZ Senate, as nothing has happened in the past month so I do not understand your change. Same with Iowa. My biggest question is Wisconsin Senate, because I think that “Likely D” is a pretty fair rating do to Feingold’s average polling but I do not see what makes this “Lean D”. Sure Feingold has had marginal polling but he does not have a great challenger, he is still fairly popular, and Wisconsin is a blue state. Overall I agree with most all of your ratings and thoroughly enjoyed reading this. I really hope you cover the gubernatorial and congressional contests as well.
not Ken Weld, but Ken Buck of Weld County.
Sorry pal but you are WAYYYY off…the reps will not win CO, NV, IL, CA, WA,etc., etc. Final tally will be more like 56 or 57 Dems…also, the r’s will lose FL and KY and quite likely NC when the campaigning really gets going and they see how much better Marshall is than Burrrrr
52-48 represents pretty much a worst case scenario for Team Blue, meaning they lose all their toss-up seats and don’t pick up any of Team Red’s.
In fact, for me, 52-48 is worse than toss-ups losing, since I have Pennsylvania at Lean D. I’m about to put Florida into the Lean I category too based on polling.