PPP (pdf) (6/19-21, Pennsylvania voters, 3/29-4/1 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 41 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (42)
Undecided: 18 (22)
(MoE: ±4%)
PPP gives us the second tied big-name race of the day, this time in Pennsylvania. Enough time seems to have passed since the Democratic primary that any immediate bounce effects have probably worn off, and the net result is a pure tossup between Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey.
Most of Sestak’s gains come from consolidating Democrats behind him; he was drawing only 59% of Dems three months ago, but now he’s up to 70%, while Toomey has the support of 73% of GOPers. Toomey leads 41-21 among independents, but indies make up a much smaller part of the Pennsylvania electorate than most other states. Sestak and Toomey have very similar favorables (29/28 for Sestak, 30/28 for Toomey), so unless something happens to redefine one of them, this is going to be all about turnout. And with a rather Republican-leaning sample here (it went for McCain 48-47 in 2008), that means that if Dems can coax out a few more currently-unlikely voters, they should be in position to pull out the victory.
I clicked on the link, but I got the Texas Gov. poll numbers…
How reliable is their track record? I have to confess that I turned against PPP when they said that Brady was up by double digits in Il-Gov. That just seemed too horrible an outcome. Since then, other polls have shown Brady ahead, but by only small margins. So now I’m more open minded about PPP.
I really hope these polls are legitimate. It seems to me that most polls everywhere show Republican candidates in the lead, but by around 5 points. We also say that we can make up those gaps over the next few months. But I was still worrying about the persistence of Republican leads. So the Pa-Sen and Tx-Gov polls might be evidence of actual progress.
for Sestak to define Toomey as an unacceptable extremist. This election shouldn’t be about turnout only.
It is fascinating the average of the last two Rasmussen polls equal the PPP poll. I am surprised how little polling this race is getting. We had more polling 6 months before the primary than we do now.
I would be curious to see what the result would be based off a sample that resembled the 2006, 2002, 1998 and 1994 electorates. If we get a 1998 or 1994 style electorate, Toomey wins. If we get a 2006 electorate, Sestak wins.
Not against PPP, but I think for a Mulhenberg (sp) or Franklin Marhsall poll is needed to corroborate these numbers. I personally think Sestak is the underdog against Toomey becaus (a) $$ (b) SE Philly knows Specter and Toomey more than Sestak and (c) some machine folks who loved Specter (port and all) may not have warmed to Sestak and (d) Sestak has a not so great rep among his PA delegation and the Rendell folks but that can all be overcome. If Toomey is not defined early, he could cut into the soft GOP vote in the Philly burbs, which will kill of Sestak. THought I think Sestak has a good chance of holding floating Hillary Dems with his military record and outsider image if he plays it right. We’ll see but I’m not hugging this poll yet.
when it says that the electorate it found was more Republican-friendly? PPP polled registered voters, not likely voters.
So how can a registered voter electorate be more Republican friendly?
The better explanation is that the sample was bad (meaning that Sestak has a bigger lead) or that less registered voters are willing to say that they voted for Obama.
Here and in the comments to the TX-Gov poll. Obviously some people haven’t been paying much attention this cycle.