UT & CA-SD15 Results Thread

2:27 am: With 100% of precincts reporting in CA-SD15, Blakeslee has 49.71% of the vote. The AP hasn’t signaled a runoff yet, with Blakeslee catching a runoff by about 750 votes.

2:14 am: That last set of precincts bailed us out here – Blakeslee’s at 49.93%, but everything else has reported and the remaining Monterey precincts should keep him under 50.

1:56 am: Pick your poison – things are looking bad whichever source you choose. Laird ends up losing Santa Clara by 3%, 7% off the pace. Model is suggesting 50.1% or 50.3% for Blakeslee…

1:40 am: With a few more Santa Clara precincts trickling in, the SoS model projects Blakeslee finishing at 49.7% but the AP model sees him finishing at 50.3%. This’ll be a nailbiter (as to whether or not we do the whole thing over again).

1:32 am: A few more precincts in, we’re now at 44% by the AP. Blakeslee’s at 49.47%, but the model has that improving to 50.03% by night’s end. Laird’s staying consistently 11% off the pace in SLO and Santa Barbara. All of these jurisdictions have pretty diverse precincts, but without significant shift, thing’s still aren’t looking good.

1:12 am: There’s a slow trickle of precincts in from California, either 117/362 or 143/399, depending on whether you believe the SoS or the AP. Regardless, Laird’s still 7.5% off the baseline, and we’ll still be lucky to get a runoff here.

12:51 am: AP calls UT-Sen for Mike Lee, who is maintaining his 3% advantage.

12:49 am: In CA-SD-15, Laird’s performance against the baseline is varying quite a bit. He’s 11% off the pace in Santa Barbara and SLO, 6% off in Santa Clara, 4% off in Santa Cruz, and running even in Monterey. SSP Labs thinks we’ll be fortunate to have a runoff here.

12:46 am: Surfing around the county websites and aggregating the total, we’re at 83% reporting. Lee has a 4,500 vote (or 3%) edge on Bridgewater, with little shift from the status quo in Utah County or SLCo.

12:35 am: With Weber County (Ogden) all in, we’re at 72% and only three major players are left: SLCo, Utah County (Provo/Orem), and Washington (St. George). SLCo is quite diverse, so it really depends where these precincts have come in. Bridgewater continues to do marginally better along the Wasatch Front, with 55% in Box Elder, 54% in Weber, 51% in Davis, 51% in SLCo; the exception is his 47% in Utah. For the first time tonight, though, the SSP Mainframe is telling us that the outstanding precincts will be more favorable to Bridgewater than Lee.

12:22 am: This is like watching paint dry, except there are interesting variations in how fast the paint dries in different places. We’re close to 2/3rds in Utah, and it’s crept up to Lee 52, Bridgewater 48. That’s odd because Bridgewater has pulled into the lead in SLCo, now up 51-49, but Lee’s going the other way in Utah County, now up 53-47. Only real hope for Bridgewater here is that SLCo is still half out (400 precincts remain, which is more than half of all outstanding precincts throughout the state), while Utah is 2/3rds in and the rest of the state is already basically done and gone to bed.

12:04 am: We’ve passed the 50% mark in Utah, and there’s still no change: Lee 51, Bridgewater 49. The only development that seems worth noting is that Salt Lake County (which was 52 Lee, 48 Bridgewater) is now 50-50. Are late-reporting urban precincts more Bridgewater-favorable?

11:52 pm: The AP has called UT-02 for Matheson. The tally right now, with 234 of 850 reporting, is Matheson 68, Wright 32. Fairly convincing, but Aaron Blake points out that Matheson spent $800K to make sure of it.

11:45 pm: Past the one-third mark in Utah, and it’s still Lee 51, Bridgewater 49. About a 1,400 margin between them.

11:37 pm: We’re getting some Monterey and Santa Cruz numbers, and the trend’s moving back in our direction: Blakeslee 49, Laird 41. I don’t know if Laird can pull into the lead, but he can probably keep Blakeslee under 50 and force a do-over.

11:30 pm: Over 20% in in Utah, and it keeps narrowing: 51 Lee, 49 Bridgewater. It’s 52 Lee, 48 Bridgewater in both Salt Lake and Utah Counties (the two biggest counties by far… both of the candidates are from Utah Co.), but Bridgewater seems to have an edge in the majority of the smaller counties.

11:25 pm: It didn’t occur to me that SD-15 would be such a NoCal/SoCal rivalry, but that’s what’s happening. Blakeslee has pushed past 50 (to 52, with Laird at 37), but that’s because a lot more reports have come in from San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara (Blakeslee’s Assembly district). Laird’s saving grace may be that none of Monterey’s 110 precincts have reported.

11:23 pm: Up to 15% reporting in Utah, gap has narrowed to Lee 52, Bridgewater 48.

11:15 pm: We’re seeing a little progress in counting in Utah; we’re up to 5% in for Sen. and 7% in for UT-02. The needle hasn’t really budged, though. It’s still Lee 53, Bridgewater 47, and Matheson 68, Wright 32.

11:08 pm: Wow, things are happening fast in California; maybe they’ll lap Utah. With nearly 10% reporting, it’s 46% for Blakeslee (R), 44% for Laird (D). Remember that this somebody needs to break 50 to win, though, so if this keeps up we’ll just be doing the exact same thing in mid-August.

10:52 pm: Is it time for a ganja fry sauce break? Still very few precincts in; Lee’s keeping his 53-47 edge for UT-Sen and Matheson’s now up more than 2-1 in UT-02.

10:27 pm: A smattering of early votes and precincts are reporting in Utah, with Mike Lee out to a 53-47 lead over Tim Bridgewater. Bridgewater is doing marginally better on the more heavily-populated Wasatch Front. In UT-02, Jim Matheson is sporting a 65-35 lead over Claudia Wright, including an identical advantage in the relatively-liberal part of the district, Salt Lake County.

Polls have now closed in Utah (we’ve got another hour to go in California). Let’s bust a move.

RESULTS:

114 thoughts on “UT & CA-SD15 Results Thread”

  1. 2-1 in Salt Lake, the only county that matters. If Wright wins any county, it will probably be Summit, or one of the sparsely-populated ones with 3 Democrats.

  3. um, sort of pretend its, um, sort of um, like, normal that 32 percent of the NC-8 GOP thought it would be a good idea to have a heroin addicted, domestic abusing, like, psychiatric patient — and, you know, not like, a, you know, Eagleton psychiatric patient, like, hey, once I was, you know, in a mental institution but all better now, really, I’ll let you know if things get rough for me patient, but an actively delusional candidate, who brings his hallucinations to work — would be a great candidate. Not like attack ad crazy, like, well that position’s a little nutty, but he backs down when answered and its all little hyperbolic, but someone 99 out of a 100 psychiatrists would not hesitate to diagnose from his press releases. Someone psychiatrists have already so designated. Perhaps in connection with legal proceedings.

    Like, hey, well he’s been standing on the corner for three years screaming about the end of the world and how his teeth are talking to him in a puddle of his own urine, but every once in a while he works in some stuff about abortion, so I guess he’s the more “conservative” of the two extremely conservative choices.

    What is it now? 32%? Really NC GOP? For Congress? Really? I would hope that most of the NC GOP would cross over and vote for a Democrat in those circumstances. Or even vote for the Socialist Workers Gay Sodomy Party, just to make sure someone who is very literally insane doesnt get on the intelligence committee, maybe. But no. 32% is it? 32% are all about it.

  4. I was really hoping he would pull through, but from current returns it appears that is not t’be the case. Don’t know anything about either of these two guys, so I’m just basing my preference on whoever’s name sounds cooler.

    Bridgewater sounds pretty cool. Almost in league with Armstrong, William Gladstone, and Michael Ironside. Ye know, one o them macho names that convey manliness.

  5. About California. The area that is reporting is Santa Clara County and Laird was supposed to lead there since it voted pretty strongly for Obama. I do not think it was part of Laird’s district though.

  8. Not looking too good for Laird

    Total 76/399 6,043

    7% 2,757

    37%% 31,079 Laird

    52% 43,029 Blakeslee

    I still think there will be a runoff because alot of votes are from Santa Barbara and San Luis Obisbo Counties with nothing from Monterey County which Laird used to represent. Blakeslee though is overperforming in the district’s southern parts that he represents. It could be because he is from there though.

     

  9. As a resident of this district (which was represented by now-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, a Republican) I’ve been amazed at the level of saturation advertising, most of it involving charges and counter-charges on offshore drilling.  On the other hand, California state senate districts are huge; both the major candidates tonight will probably get more votes than Elaine Marshall received in the massively discussed NC Senate runoff.  Think about that.

    I agree this race is going to a runoff; Laird will probably finish second, but will cut Blakeslee’s margin when Monterey and Santa Cruz counties are all in.  

  10. Blakeslee’s lead is beginning to drop already.

    Total 101/399 7,068

    7% 3,491

    41% 42,455 Laird

    49% 51,221 Blakeslee

    Monterey 25/110 1,025

    5% 734

    54% 11,376 Laird

    37% 7,868 Blakeslee

     

  11. Things are not looking so hot in Cali. At least he is currently under 50, any way Laird can make it back up still? Like has his home turf not been counted yet or something, I have paid absolutely NO attention to this race so am very unfamiliar. I hope Bridgewater pulls it out, Lee actually frightens me a bit. I think he makes Rand Paul look tame.  Bridgewater will be a rubber stamp for the GOP but all the same better than an extremist. Also Erikson will be pissed.

  12. Unless Salt Lake goes strong for Bridgewater from here on out, I think Lee will win.   So far Bridgewater has gained about 250 votes through 135 precints with same day voters, but he will have to do better than that from here on out.

  13. Obama won the 15th district’s portion of Monterey County by 35 points. He won the total district by 20 points. Laird is leading by 17 points in Monterey County, 18 points from Obama’s margin.  The problem is that Blakeslee is leading by 25 points in San Luis Obisbo county, causing a 32 loss from Obama percentage.

    Looking at these numbers, I am guessing a five point Blakeslee lead in this special election. That will be enough for a runoff.

  16. I guess everybody gave their first bunch of votes. These vote bunches usually come in threes or fours in each county. I’m leaving the blog for tonight. I hope when I read Laird’s website tomorrow, it will say something about winning or a runoff.

    My last note on this race: not all early county returns are early signs of the final result, even if the returns are pretty similar. On June 8th, we learned that with Prop 16 and 17 when we thought they would win and early returns from key counties showed that. The key counties though shifted in our favor.  

  17. I am assuming they have gotten the absentees from the counties, because they have a lot more votes tallied, even though the AP has more precincts reporting.

    Percentages are still the same though: 49-41 Blakeslee. I am not liking the numbers here at ALL.

  18. Just figured out that Utah’s filing deadline for independent candidates is same day as for major parties so no Claudia Wright independent bid 🙁  

  23. Blakeslee is currently getting a huge amount of crossover Democrats which can be seen in his carrying Santa Clara county, whose portion within the district gave Obama 63% of the vote.  

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