Texas Redistricting: The Return of the Jedi

If you can’t tell by the title, this is strictly a Democratic gerrymander with the goal being how many Obama districts can be squeezed out of Texas while pretty much following current VRA’s and not severely weakening current incumbents.  I purposefully had ignored all other possible VRA’s, such as a Hispanic plurality/majority district in Dallas.  However, since the voting is so polarized, an Obama district in TX almost automatically means it’s going to be heavy on the minority population.  So even while the intention isn’t there, this map still naturally makes two new majority-minority districts in Dallas, a solid Hispanic plurality district in Houston, two new majority-minority seats in Houston and a Hispanic majority seat in Southern TX.  

The question becomes, what would happen in a majority-minority district that’s a swing district, because the primary vote would be mainly minority voters and they’d need to pick up some white vote to account for drop-off in voting habits to get to 50%+1.  Id like to think though that the suburbs of Dallas and Houston aren’t that racial charged and we’d do okay.

I did a 36-seat map.  TX may gain either three or four seats; I just picked one and went with four as having an extra seat to work with seemed more fun.  The four new seats ended up being one in South Texas to reflect the booming Hispanic population, two in Dallas as roughly 1.3 million people have moved into the area since the 2000 census, and the fourth is another Houston area seat with my gerrymandering resulting in a north suburban Houston seat.

The map is 22 Obama districts and 14 McCain districts and I hope you enjoy!

Greater Dallas

Only explanation about relay of information is that in the 2nd line in initial description of district, after Presidential results the order is White%/Black%/Hispanic% of population.

Red: TX-32  Pete Sessions R

34%-65% McCain     80/4/10

District now becomes much more like the current TX-26 but instead of combining suburban and exurban areas with Democratic areas in the Dallas-core, it now picks up the heavily GOP portions of north Dallas.  Sessions would be much happier here.

Green: TX-3 Sam Johnson R

35%-64% McCain     79/5/10

Sam Johnson may actually live in TX-32 or the new TX-33 but I have a feeling he’d rather run for this open seat that contains most of his old territory.  Safe GOP, gerrymandering to only take in GOP precincts in the inner-Dallas area.

Lime Green: TX-4 Ralph Hall R

28%/71% McCain     78/13/7

Pretty much the same district for Ralph Hall already represents, he’ll be happy.

Periwinkle: TX-1 Louie Gohmert R

29%/70% McCain     72/16/9

He got lucky as well (as lucky as one can get in a pretend redistricting) and Gohmert’s district stays pretty much the same.

Pink: TX-6 OPEN

26%/73% McCain     83/6/9

This district is very similar to Joe Barton’s current district so he’d probably opt to run here instead of against Bernice Johnson in a black plurality district.  Kay Granger may also be looking for a new district to run in (if she doesn’t pull the trigger on a statewide run) and this district contains her old suburban and exurban territory.  

Inner-Dallas

Here’s with city lines and here is with no lines.

Redistricting Dallas was easily the most fun, so much damage can be done to the GOP gerrymanders there.  What I found is that you can squeeze out 6 Obama districts, however, most of them will be extremely swingish, Hispanics get no plurality or majority district, it is heavily gerrymandered, and the AA district now has a tail.  Making 5 Obama districts would be an extremely solid Dallas area map and would pretty much guarantee us all 5 of those seats and could provide a district where a Hispanic can easily get elected (mine it’s 50/50).  But I’ll save that for the Democrats in TX to make because Im going for 6.

Peach: TX-24 Kenny Marchant R

31%/68% McCain     84/3/9

Merchant’s home gets thrown into what looks like TX-26 with Michael Burgess, however Burgess gets put into a different district.  So while Merchant is the only resident incumbent, Burgess may want to run here as well instead of try his hand at an Obama district.

Cyan: TX-26 Mike Burgess R

52%/47% Obama      59/12/19

As previously stated in the last district, this is a newly made Obama district that he won by 5%.  In the north Democratic Denton, then some McCain districts to snake down to more suburbs that are starting to swing our way, and then picks up strongly Democratic areas in Dallas and Tarrant counties.  This is also the 2nd most white Obama district in the state, with the two Austin based districts ranking 1st and 3rd.

Yellow: TX-33 OPEN

51%/48% Obama      53/14/24

New district formed out of blue precincts in northeast/northcentral Dallas county with it picking up the Democratic precincts in the booming city of Plano north of that in Collin county.

Gray: TX-5 Jeb Hensarling R

52%/47% Obama      48/16/32

Jeb’s district now takes in much more of Dallas county, snaking in a little bit to pick-up left over Dem precincts from Johnson’s district moving into rural areas.  A Hispanic would stand a decent shot at winning here; they’ll make up a strong plurality/majority of the Dem primary so the real challenge will be getting a Hispanic legislator elected in such a white district that only went for Obama by 5%.

Blue: TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson D vs Joe Barton R

66%/33% Obama      39/41/18

For this district, I cut out much of the Hispanic population in Dallas county and replaced it with white dominated areas in suburban and exurban areas south of Dallas, thus giving those Hispanic Dem precincts to other districts that can use them.  With the Hispanic population plummeting from 34% to 18%, Johnson actually get’s safer and this district will have no chance of going from AA to Hispanic in representation.

Turquoise: TX-34 OPEN

51%/48% Obama      47/12/35

Another new Obama district, this one also is majority-minority and a tinge more Hispanic and less white than TX-5, but also 2% more Republican.

Violet: TX-12 Kay Granger R

53%/46% Obama      50/17/28

Fort Worth no longer gets screwed out of having a Democratic representative and the district now covers only the city of Fort Worth and a few inner-suburbs that are surrounded by it’s city limits.

West Texas

Purple: TX-13: Mac Thornberry R

23%/77% McCain     72/5/20

Boring.

Pink:TX-19 Randy Neugebauer R

27%/72% McCain     67/6/25

Boring’er.

Sea Green: TX-11 Mike Conway R

23%/76% McCain     71/4/22

Boring’est.

West Texas Hispanic Districts

Orange: TX-16 Silvestre Reyes D

65%/34% Obama      18/3/76

Same El Paso based district for Reyes.

Purple: TX-28 Henry Cuellar D

52%/46% Obama      22/2/74

This district looks much like Ciro Rodriguez’s, save for he lives in Bexar County which now has enough population for two separate Hispanic districts.  And with Cuellar’s voting record, he seemed like a perfect fit for this district rather than stick him in what would be an extremely strong Obama district next-door.  So his home of Laredo in the SE extreme of the district is put into the district.

Central Texas

Maroon: TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D

56%/42% Obama      30/5/61

There’s Ciro!  This district is much Democratic, and will be much easier for campaign stops on Rodriguez.  Congrats man, sit back and enjoy the incumbency, but still work hard.  (This is pretty much guaranteed to happen regardless of whose in charge of redistricting in TX.  They can probably gerrymander two Hispanic district enough here in the county to make one one really swingy though.)

Cyan: TX-20 Charles Gonzales D

58%/41% Obama      33/10/53

His district does get less Democratic and that’s because he now has to share his blue territory with another Dem in Bexar county.  He’ll live.

Brown: TX-21 Lamar Smith R

33%/66% McCain     75/3/19

Smith’s district takes on a different shape, but covers most of the same exurban/rural territory around San Antonio and Austin.

Lime Green: TX-31: OPEN

56%/42% Obama      62/5/29

New Austin based district for any Dem who wants it.  

Olive Green: TX-25 Lloyd Dogget D

60%/39% Obama      58/12/24

Dogget’s district gets a little bit more Democratic and a helluva a lot smaller.

Light Blue: TX-17 Chet Edwards D

53%/45% Obama      56/19/20

This district is now a pair of legs connected to Edwards home of Waco.  The right leg picks up AA precincts through small cities and rural areas while the left leg takes in the Democratic city of Killeen and then on down to pick up some suburbs and a couple of precincts in Austin.

Southern Texas

Yellow: TX-27 Solomon Ortiz D

53%/46% Obama      27/2/69

This district stays surprisingly the same as I figured it’d get smaller.

Green: TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa D

59%/40% Obama      20/2/77

Hinojosa’s district trades around some precincts in Central TX with the new Hispanic district and with another GOP district to maximize Democratic performance, which was lacking after the city of McAllen was completely taken out for population purposes.

Pink: TX-35 OPEN

60%/40% Obama      18/1/80

New Hispanic district centered around McAllen on the border and then takes in much of Cuellar’s old territory in Central TX to create a solid progressive Hispanic Congresscritter.  Also the most Hispanic district in the state.

Greater Houston

Salmon: TX-14 Ron Paul R

29%/70% McCain     73/8/7

Ron Paul’s district is re-shaped and all Democratic areas in the district are removed (Galveston and it’s surrounding areas), suburbs closer into Houston are added, and then the rural areas inbetween Houston and Austin are dolloped on.  A bit more Republican, pretty gerrymandered and with no central focus as this district really was just the left-overs.

Gray: TX-36 Ted Poe R vs Kevin Brady R

25%/74% McCain      81/4/11

This district is the one I deemed the new one.  Montgomery county is estimated to have grown by just over 50%, or roughly 150,000 people.  So now there is a district centered around the county.  A couple of precincts of Poe’s hometown are in other districts but he probably lives here, and Kevin Brady does for sure as well.  But he may want to run next door.

Moss Green: TX-8 OPEN

28%/71% McCain      78/8/10

Here’s where Kevin Brady would probably run as it consists of most of his old territory and he’d have an easy win.

Merrygold: TX-2 OPEN

53%/46% Obama      45/22/29

My favorite district on this map and the one I started with first when mapping, which I had never done before and is why I finally got it perfect over the many tries (could never get it to be an Obama district because Id start with TX-22).  In the east it picks up all the Democratic areas in the Beaumont/Port Arthur metro, moves west to Baytown, snakes through the suburbs in Houston  (and missing Republican areas to boot) on down to Galveston, and then to Freeport.  It’s a minority-majority district  and probably strong enough Dem to elect one.  

Violet: TX-22 Pete Olson R

52%/48% Obama      46/20/22/12%(Asian)

Much less gerrymandered before, this district is now a very Fort Bend-centric district that expands from there to pick up as Democratic of precincts as possible.  A chunk of Houston does extend into Fort Bend that I’d estimate at 85% AA and the surrounding areas from there in the county also contain many heavy minority areas.  This higher AA population is what makes it majority-minority and Democratic.

Inner Houston

Here’s with city lines and here’s with no lines.

Pink: TX-10 OPEN

30%/69% McCain     74/4/15

This district is open and takes on TX-10’s numeration because it got split up three ways and was my left-over number.  McCaul could run here because the district contains his base of the Houston suburbs, as may Culberson because he now has an Obama district.  Solid GOP regardless.

Orange-Red: TX-7 John Culberson R

57%/43% Obama      34/19/40

Culberson’s district is now transformed into a bird-shaped district that has a strong Hispanic plurality and with a strong 14% Obama showing.

Green: TX-18 Sheila Jackson-Lee D

71%/29% Obama      33/37/26

Her district gets much more white, 9% less Hispanic, and a little bit more Republican.  However, like Johnson in Dallas, even though the district seems less friendly on the surface, by eliminating much of the Hispanic population, Jackson-Lee won’t be threatened in a primary and all subsequent representatives would be AA as well.

Pale Yellow: TX-29 Gene Green D

55%/45% Obama      31/15/50

The district loses Baytown, which makes it less Democratic and less Hispanic.  However, Green’s pain is the Democrats gain so he’d just have to suck it up.  He can win here just fine.

Blue: TX-9 Al Green

63%/37% Obama     30/26/32

This Green wont be very happy either with his district as it no longer has a black plurality but rather a Hispanic one.  This is due to the district losing it’s AA precincts in Fort Bend county, which was needed to create that Dem district.  He can probably win, and if not, it’d still be a progressive Democrat and be Hispanic then.

THE END.  Expect a Revenge of the Sith version in 28 years.