PPP (pdf) (6/19-21, Pennsylvania voters, 3/29-4/1 in parens):
Dan Onorato (D): 35 (32)
Tom Corbett (R): 45 (45)
Undecided: 20 (23)
(MoE: ±4%)
Yesterday’s release from PPP of their gubernatorial numbers aren’t quite the good news that their Senate numbers were (which saw Joe Sestak consolidating Democrats post-primary, and shooting up into a tie with Pat Toomey). While Republican AG Tom Corbett is flat, Democrat Dan Onorato (the Allegheny Co. Executive) didn’t seem to capture as much of the unity bounce as did Sestak; he only rose three points. (Bear in mind that this is the same sample that broke 48 McCain/47 Obama.)
If there’s good news here, it’s that Democrats and liberals are noticeably more heavily undecided than Republicans and conservatives. Dems are 22% undecided (and breaking 57-21 for Onorato) while GOPers are 14% undecided (and breaking 74-12 for Corbett). But we’re getting to the point where Onorato needs to not just nail down the undecided Dems but also flip some of the Dems who are going for Corbett. As I’ve bemoaned before, though, he’s up against two problems; one is his near-Some Dude-ness in the face of Corbett’s high profile (not just because of his statewide office but because of his Bonusgate prosecutions), and two is Pennsylvania’s clockwork eight-year alternation between parties for Governor.
PPP did potential 2012 numbers, finding Casey leading Santorum, 51-39.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Get Styx to play a fundraiser concert for Dan Onorato. Then, change the campaign slogan to, “Domo Origato, Dan Onorato.”
is definitely working against Onorato, judging from gubernatorial results in the state that go back as far as 1970. The only time it changed was when Bob Casey Sr. and Tom Ridge briefly transferred power to their Lt. Governors, in Ridge’s case he resigned midterm to become Homeland Security Director.