PPP (pdf) (6/28-30, Kentucky voters, 5/1-2 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 43 (40)
Rand Paul (R): 43 (41)
Undecided: 14 (19)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Rand Paul (last seen comparing the current predicament of the United States to the fall of the Roman Empire) is in a tricky position: the more people learn about him, the less they seem to like him. As increased scrutiny has shone on Paul in the weeks since his victory in the Kentucky GOP primary, voters say by a 38-29 margin that the coverage has made them less likely to vote for him (with 33% saying it made no difference). In other words, all the pre-primary hype about Paul was that he was an outsider… and now people are finding out belatedly that he’s an outsider for good reason.
Paul’s favorables are now negative, at 34/42, while Jack Conway is much less known, giving him more upside: he’s at 31/29. Still, the decline in Paul’s fortunes hasn’t changed the toplines much since PPP’s last look at the race two months ago (PPP has always had the Dem-friendliest numbers of any pollster in this particular race). As with many other races in the Appalachian arc, it may boil down to which disliked figure people like even less in November: Barack Obama (37/58) or Paul.
19%(!) of likely voters are against the Americans With Disabilities Act, and 7% are against the Civil Rights Act.
That’s pretty gross.
It’s also interesting that PPP found a 53-38 McCain-Obama sample, which is not far off from 2008 election. Does that mean Democrats are getting more enthusiastic about voting?
As I’ve said before over the years, the more I think I undestand Kentucky politics over the years of observing it north of the Ohio River, the more confused I get. For being a relatively small state, its politics can be very complicated.
One thing I’ve consistently noticed is that Kentucky voters are notoriously crabby (think New Jersey with a mid-South accent) — disapproval ratings are always high. So that aspect of the poll looks good for us, as it’s rare to see anyone running for office in Kentucky “above water” in the approve/disapprove. I’m even suprised to see President Obama close to the actual vote he got (losing 58-41).
Another thing — as conservative as Kentucky is, except for maybe a few of the suburbanites around Louisvilee or in the Bluegrass, they ARE NOT LIBERTARIANS in any sense of the word. They are for God, guns, and bridges … and roads …and anything else you want to spend money on. This is particularly true in the Mountain East, where any Democrat needs to rack up a solid vote if they want to carry the state.
I think Jack Conway has the right posture to convey this type of message that can tie together the complex coalition a Democrat needs to carry Kentucky.
For Rand Paul, the only way he can pull off a decent victory is to link Jack Conway directly to Barack Obama. He has to indicate to Kentuckians that sending a Democrat means another vote to green light an agenda that’s going to bankrupt the nation and more wasteful spending. If Dr. Paul can keep pounding home that message, instead of getting sidetracked talking about issues that were settled generations ago, he might be able to recover some of the support that’s eroded from his since the primary.
In Conway’s case, it may not hurt to have Obama’s endorsement, but it doesn’t necessary mean he needs the President to come to a rally in Louisville. One suggestion would be, and this is kind of awkward, is to suggest to Kentuckians that unlike Rand Paul, Conway understands the state needs to bacon to keep jobs in Kentucky. Paul is a dangerous extremist that will bankrupt the state with his radical ideas on smaller government. Rand Paul, therefore, is too big a risk.
In my view, the latter argument isn’t as strong as the first one. But hey, what do I know about Kentucky?
The best thing that Conway has in the race is Rand Paul. Paul is a verbal gaffe machine waiting to happen.
Rasmussen ranks this as leans R and North Carolina as a tossup. Based entirely on his own dodgy polls. Breathtaking arrogance. Kinda like Rand Paul. Go Conway!
Jack Conway needs to place himself in the center between Paul and Obama. Doing so would not force people who dislike both to choose.
supporters are on PPP’s blog trying to discredit the poll using garbage logic like this:
Screw off, Rand Paul brought this on himself. No amount of denying reality will help Rand Paul in November like it didn’t help his father in 2008.