Field Poll (pdf) (6/22-7/5, likely voters, 3/9-15 in parens):
Jerry Brown (D): 44 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (46)
Undecided: 13 (11)
(MoE: ±3.2%)
The Field Poll is back after a hiatus with its first look at the general election in California in more than three months; the news for Jerry Brown is so-so, with a negligible lead over Meg Whitman. Of course, that’s a definite improvement over the previous poll, where Whitman led by 3 (taken during that brief period where Whitman had the airwaves to herself and several other pollsters found a narrow lead for her). Nevertheless, the general reaction of the punditry today is that the poll is a negative for Brown (take TPM for instance, where the headline is “Bad News for Brown” and the teaser reads “The latest poll of the California governor’s race shows Whitman pulling to within one point of Jerry Brown.”
Brown’s favorables are mediocre, at 42/40 (not much changed since March, where he was at 41/37, but certainly a change from March 2009, when he hadn’t been besmirched by negative ads and was at 50/25). Whitman, though, has taken much more of a pounding: she’s underwater now at 40/42, down from 40/27 in March, having gotten hit by both Steve Poizner and Brown’s surrogates. Although he should be cheered by the collateral damage to Whitman, there are some red flags here for Brown, in terms of how he performs among what should be the strongest Democratic constituencies: Latinos (among whom he leads by only 11, 50-39 perhaps thanks to some Spanish-language advertising by Whitman… he led 54-25 among Latinos in March) and the 18-39 set (among whom Whitman actually leads, 45-42, though that’s a drop from her 46-36 lead in March). Brown’s strength comes from those 50 and older, who are the ones old enough to remember his last turn in office, which happened to coincide with a time when California seemed to suck a lot less. If Brown can solidify his standing with young and Latino voters, he should be in more solid shape for November.
if Whitman cannot take the lead now, she’ll probably never be able to take it considering there likely won’t be a more advantegeous period for her.
You could look at it as Whitman underperforming among white people and older voters just as you could look at it as Brown underperforming among Hispanics and younger voters.
He’s doing better in the polling now than he was previously. Maybe he should be doing better, maybe the lead in the polls isn’t great news, but “Whitman pulling to within one point of Jerry Brown” is just misleading, period.
It’s almost like the media just want to maintain their narrative about Brown running a lackluster campaign. No matter what this poll said, journalists were going to try to make it sound bad for Brown unless he had a decent lead.
I actually do not see how this is great news for Whitman at all. At this point, she has probably reached a plateau on the declining return on investment scale for television advertising.
Brown just needs to keep raising money and be prepared for the final months of the campaign. If he is in a tie now, that’s a pretty good position considering the circumstances. Ultimately, I am expecting Brown to pull this one out.
Democrat – 37%
Republican – 33%
Independent – 30%
Brown – 87/10/46 = 49%
Whitman – 13/90/54 = 51%
One issue with the poll, i don’t believe for one minute Whitman has recovered to only 40/42 favorability from the twenties she was in before the primary. No way, no how. She is one of the most disliked people in the state… though now that she is not running commercials people have forgotten about her.
Of course, it is basically a cinch that the more likely a person is to not be a “likely voter”, the more that person hates Whitman for all the lame commercials. Still, many people who will vote for Whitman will not say they have a favorable opinion of her.
I expect both these people to have significantly underwater approvals by election day, with Whitman’s again plummeting into the 20s due to her scorched earth campaigning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…