CA-Sen: Boxer Has 3-Point Lead in Field Poll

Field Poll (pdf) (6/22-7/5, likely voters, 3/9-15 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (44)

Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Barbara Boxer has a 3-point lead in the Field Poll, their first look at the Senate general election in three months; while that’s not a number that should fill people with great confidence, it’s an improvement from three months ago, when Boxer led by 1. (By the way, can someone please familiarize the crew at Talking Points Memo with the concept of “trendlines?” For the second straight day, they’ve mischaracterized the Field Poll’s results, with a teaser reading “Tightening?” and a headline of “Fiorina Closing in on Boxer.”)

The number that pundits seem to be focusing on is that Boxer’s approval has gone negative for the first time, at 42/48 among LVs and 42/43 among RVs. That is indeed troubling, but there’s something of a disconnect between that and the toplines, where apparently 5% of the population doesn’t approve yet plans to vote for her anyway (presumably because they dislike Fiorina even more?).

Interestingly, compared with the Governor’s race, Boxer has the opposite strengths as Jerry Brown: Boxer has a broad lead among Latinos, 55-32, and among the 18-39 set, 52-33. The 65+ segment are the ones keeping Fiorina in this race, backing Fiorina 50-46. A lot of that may have to do with the way that Meg Whitman is campaigning, based on her use of social media to reach the young’uns and Spanish-language media to reach Latinos (including rollout today of a billboard advertising blitz touting her opposition to not only Arizona’s immigration law but even her 16-years-too-late opposition to Prop 187).

At any rate, Brown and Boxer’s success seems increasingly interlinked (especially since, as many pundits are pointing out today, this is Boxer’s first election where she doesn’t have strong top-of-the-ticket coattails… and, yes, for that analysis to work, that means that Gray Davis was actually strong in 1998). Brown needs to reach out to traditional Democratic constituencies, while Boxer mostly needs those constituencies that already support her to actually show up, which would be helped if Brown could generate some more excitement.

15 thoughts on “CA-Sen: Boxer Has 3-Point Lead in Field Poll”

  2. Questions when people decide who to vote for:

    Who will make a better Senator? Someone who asks a general to call her something different or someone who ran a large company to the ground when an economy was good?

  3. “there’s something of a disconnect between that and the toplines, where apparently 5% of the population doesn’t approve yet plans to vote for her anyway (presumably because they dislike Fiorina even more?).”

    With Fiorina’s rating at a 34/29, its more likely that the 5% (or probably more) who support Boxer more than her personal approval rating are undecided about how they feel about her, disaffected Democrats, or caused by a fraction of undecided voters who are favorable towards her.

  4. For one, I think they’ve oversampled Democrats by at least 3-5% here, though, to be fair, I think their GOP sampling is about right (with their Indie sample low). Stick with Dems for the moment, I think Fiorina needs at least 20% of them to prevail, but Boxer at 75% w/ her own party isn’t too impressive. It also looks like Fiorina’s holding the GOP turf in the south, and she’s winning among the age groups that will actually GOTV.

    The best news this poll has for Boxer, I think, is she’s about on-target with Hispanics, and she’s holding her ground with the Independents who Fiorina needs to win over. In order to win, I think Fiorina needs the edge among non-affiliateds.

  5. They are not warm and fuzzy.  One is the eccentric uncle and the other is sounds strident saying “pass the peas” at the dinner table.

    The fact they ran unpposed is yet another fail for the California Democratic party.  Add in the completely unlikeable DiFi and there isn’t a freaking likeable top Dem politician in California.

    At the same time, none of this is much of a problem.  If either of these two were likeable, both would win by Obama-like numbers.  But even being unlikeable, the various polls are clear that the voters wants a Senator who supports the Obama agenda, and no matter how unlikeable these two are, they are Bert and Ernie cuddly in contrast to Meg Whitman.

    Carly can’t win because she is a Republican.  Meg can’t win because most people simply hate her face and voice and name.

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