StephenCLE’s House Predictions 2010 – July Ratings Update

Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  

Ladies and gentlemen of swing state project, I feel as though we are at a major crossroads in the battle for the House of Representatives.  The economy continues to swing and sway, and whichever way it goes could decide a lot.  The oil spill, depending on how well claims are carried out and the oil cleaned up, as well as whether or not a hurricane comes and spreads oil inland, is a big question mark.  And other wild cards such as scandals and national security could rear their ugly heads as well.  The way I see things, the GOP is going to gain enough to where taking control isn’t far out of reach, but they need one more opening between now and November to take the House.

Total House Math for July:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +26

Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (30) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, CO-4, FL-2, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NH-1, NH-2, NM-2, ND-1, NY-24,  NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-11, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WV-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – OH-15

Republican to Democrat – none

July Ratings Changes –

1.North Carolina-2 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – Bob Etheridge deciding to go MMA on those planted GOP hacks…errrr! College students, puts his seat on the board, but really I don’t expect this seat to go red.  Weak competition is the reason.

2.California-3 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – Two months ago, I would have thought that a pair of strong statewide victories for Team Blue for governor and senate would put this seat in the blue column.  Fast forward ahead, and it appears that both races will be somewhat close, which means that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina will almost certainly carry CA-3, and maybe by wide margins.  Ami Bera will have to fight not only that, but a republican incumbent in a republican year.  Sorry, that’s just too much to overcome.

3.Hawaii-1 – Toss Up to Lean Dem – With Charles Djou’s nay vote on financial reform, I feel he has already endangered his shaky hold on a seat that he wouldn’t have now if not for Hawaii’s dumb special election laws.  In my opinion, Colleen Hanabusa is now favored, and another vote like this will probably doom Djou.

4.Arizona-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – I didn’t want to move this one because of Kirkpatrick’s competition being weak, but it looks like Arizona is a real conservative hotbed of activity at the moment, so I’ll be cautious and move AZ-1 to lean.  I was previously holding out hope that the state would move more in the Dem direction in 2010 because of the home-state vote for McCain in 2008 wearing off, but I’m not as sure that will happen now.  

5.Arizona-5 – Lean Dem to Toss Up – This is kind of along the same lines as Kirkpatrick, except that Mitchell has a tougher district.  

6.Idaho-1 – Toss Up to Lean Dem – With Minnick picking up endorsements on both sides of the aisle, and his competition being extremely weak and underfunded, I think he’s now a slight favorite for re-election in this ruby-red seat.

7.New York-13 – Lean Dem to Likely Dem – full scale civil war appears to have erupted here for Team Red.  McMahon, who was sitting in the toss-up column and facing a Dem third party challenger backed by the NY WFP two months ago, has seen his fortunes rise quite a bit.

8.West Virginia-1 – Likely Rep to Toss Up – All right, I admit it, I was wrong on this one.  I thought that when Alan Mollohan went down to Pelosi-hating Mike Oliverio last month, that this somewhat-red district was all but delivered to Team Red.  But Oliverio has sounded some much softer tones lately, and his challenger, David McKinley, didn’t have the fundraising boost and bump in the polls that I would have anticipated from Mollohan going down.  I still think that many progressives will refuse to support Oliverio, but he’s now got a path to victory.

9.Louisiana-3 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – Well, with the gulf oil spill ruining the beaches and people’s lives here, I think we can put this one to bed, even if Charlie Melancon runs strong at the top, I don’t see Sangisetty having much of a chance in a race that will almost certainly be nationalized more than most.

10.Tennessee-6 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – Much like LA-3, I think this rural southern district is just about out of reach at this point.

11.California-48 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – With Beth Krom’s fundraising really struggling, and facing a tough incumbent, I think this one should come off the board as well.

12.Ohio-15 – Toss Up to Lean Republican (Rep pickup) – This is a move I make with a very heavy heart.  Against the grain and advice of just about everybody, I’ve kept this race in the democratic column.  But I realized that with the evidence mounting, the tight cash on hand race, the national mood, the struggles Kilroy has had with charisma and reaching out to voters, all of it adds up to a republican pickup.  I’m not happy about it, but I’m throwing my rooting interest aside.

13.New York-24 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Mike Arcuri basically screwed himself with his flip-flop on health care reform, and he hasn’t done anything to really help his position since then, plus his competition is very tough.  He’s now a slight underdog to be re-elected.

14.Ohio-1 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Well, if OH-15 gets moved, this one has to get moved as well.  Steve Driehaus I think is on borrowed time at this point, unless he can somehow get blacks to turn out in big numbers in 2010.  Really, I think he deserves better than this considering that OH-1 is actually slightly democratic according to the PVI, but the voting pattern of minorities is extremely fickle.

15.Pennsylvania-11 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – I know this much, if Paul Kanjorski can barely beat Lou Barletta in a strong democratic year, his chances of doing it in a strongly republican year are certainly less than 50/50

16.Mississippi-1 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – With a really strong competitor coming against him and with his district being very close to ground zero for the tea party movement, I think Travis Childers is on borrowed time as well.  The GOP will be very unhappy on election night if they can’t win a district like MS-1.

17.Georgia-12 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – I think I would be amiss to totally dismiss the possibility of Barrow getting knocked off in November.  After all, this is a swing district in the south, the heart of tea party country.

18.Kansas-2 – Solid Rep to Likely Rep – Sean Tevis’s emergence as a candidate here and his ambitious plans means that this district is worth watching once again.  Word on the street is that conservatives are unhappy with Lynn Jenkins and are trying to take her out in the primary, so that could either leave her wounded, or knock her out for a crazy wingnut, either of which would benefit Tevis.  Stay tuned.

19.Virginia-2 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – Glenn Nye has not done himself any favors by opposing most of the democratic agenda, and unfortunately for him, there aren’t any races upballot of Congress in Virginia in 2010, so I fear that democratic turnout here could be very, very low.  Rigell’s a tough challenger too.

2010 House Big Board (as of June update)

Solid Dem – 163 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 31 seats:

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 22 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 32 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 19 seats:

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 15 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Florida-12 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-2 (Jenkins)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 153 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1