I released my new House numbers at the beginning of the week, and now here are my newly updated Senate predictions.
I gotta say, this is a case of how big a week is in politics. At the beginning of this week I was feeling dumpy, and the speculation with Robert Gibbs’ comments and Nancy Pelosi’s rebuttal were driving the narrative. But in one fell swoop, actually within 24 hours, the oil spill stopped gushing, the democrats passed the biggest overhaul of financial reform since the Great Depression, and new jobless claims dropped by nearly 30,000. Unbelievable. Those news headlines, coupled with some recent polling, have caused me to have a much rosier outlook on the Senate than I did a month ago. It’s not rosy everywhere though, as several races moved the opposite way as well.
Senate Math: (counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats)
Old – 59 Democrat, 41 Republican
New – 56 Democrat, 43 Republican, 1 Independent
Republican Pickups (5) – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Colorado, Delaware
Democratic Pickups (2) – Ohio, Missouri
Independent Pickups (1) – Florida
Race Ratings Changes:
1.Wisconsin – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – With more and more polling, some of it non-Rassmussen, showing Rich Some Dude Ron Johnson running close to Russ Feingold, I’m starting to worry that some kind of elephant virus has infiltrated the Badger State. In any case, Feingold has had to work hard for re-elections before, and it appears he may have to do so again.
2.Pennsylvania – Lean Dem to Toss Up – I still think that, in the end, Sestak is going to pull away from Toomey once the Pa electorate finds out that he’s really just another Rick Santorum, but for now, Toomey is doing a decent job and the people of the Keystone State seem to have real troubles with the democratic brand. So for those reasons, this is now a toss-up race.
3.Nevada – Toss Up to Lean Dem (moves from Rep pickup to Dem retention) – Well, the republicans really screwed the pooch here. Sharron Angle has been a human gaffe machine from the minute she started this campaign, and it’s not surprising to see Reid jumping out to a lead in most polls now. He’s definitely got the momentum right now.
4.Illinois – Toss Up (moves from Rep pickup to Dem retention) – Talk about a race in which there isn’t much to go on. Both candidates suck, ones a liar, the other a former banker who saw his family’s bank fail. I can’t figure either is popular in this day and age, and this race is probably going to go down to the wire, but Illinois’s partisan lean is starting to show through a bit.
5.Florida – Toss Up to Lean Ind – With everybody outside of Rassmussen showing Charlie Crist leading by a high single digit margin, it looks like Florida is headed toward electing an independent senator. That’s not to say that Marco Rubio is out of the race, but it’s not looking as good for him as it was several months ago.
Notes on the Other Toss-up Seats:
6.Colorado – Ken Buck and Jane Norton were dealt a bit of bad news as GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis blew up this week, which might give Dem candidate Hickenlooper a path to a potentially strong victory. This situation will have to be monitored, as a strong turnout by Hickenlooper in the governor’s race could have an impact on the Senate contest (though probably not as much in independent-minded CO as in other states), but for now I keep the GOP ahead here.
7.Missouri – Pretty much all polling shows this race is either a dead heat, or has Roy Blunt up a statistically insignificant 1-2% on Robin Carnahan. Really, I think this race could be the closest of the whole cycle, but I just think that Carnahan’s name, and the fact that she is a better candidate is going to get her over the top. We could finally see some movement in this race as the campaign gets going.
8.Ohio – If you’ve read my posts on SSP before, then you know that I am not as big a believer in money as most. Yes it’s true that Rob Portman has tons of cash and may be able to try to EMeg his way to a victory, but I can tell you that most Ohioans would be resentful of such an approach. Namely, this state gets bombarded by political ads every 2 years because of it’s competitiveness and people get sick of it after a while. The fact that he’s losing in the polls right now, when other democrats are struggling nationally, and that he’s a bad fit for the state politically means I keep democrat Fisher ahead here.
2010 Senate Big Board (as of June update)
Solid Dem – 6 seats
New York (Schumer)
Vermont (Leahy)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Oregon (Wyden)
Hawaii (Inouye)
New York (Gillibrand)
Likely Dem – 1 seat
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
Lean Dem – 4 seats
California (Boxer)
Nevada (Reid)
Washington (Murray)
Wisconsin (Feingold)
Toss Up – 5 seats
Ohio (Open)
Colorado (Open)
Missouri (Open)
Illinois (Open)
Pennsylvania (Open)
Lean Ind – 1 seat
Florida (Open)
Lean Rep – 5 seats
Kentucky (Open)
North Carolina (Burr)
Indiana (Open)
New Hampshire (Open)
Louisiana (Vitter)
Likely Rep – 5 seats
Georgia (Isakson)
Delaware (Open)
Arkansas (Lincoln)
Iowa (Grassley)
Arizona (McCain)
Solid Rep – 9 seats
South Carolina (Demint)
Alabama (Shelby)
North Dakota (Open)
South Dakota (Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Coburn)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Crapo)
Alaska (Murkowski)
…I think it’s a given that Crist will caucus with the Democrats as long as the Democrats have a majority without him. So I wouldn’t count him as “indy” in the final count, that’s really a Democratic pickup.
Otherwise, I do believe more than you in the power of a financial disparity, so I worry more than you about Ohio and Illinois where Giannoulias had a poor haul last quarter. But the DSCC will play hard to help make up the difference and attack Portman and Kirk, so the money problem can be offset.
I guess if I have one other possible quibble it’s that I suspect we won’t win both between Ohio and Missouri. I’ll be surprised if we don’t get at least one pickup in addition to Crist in Florida, as we have a highly unusual number of pickup opportunities for a cycle that’s become so toxic for our party. There are 6 seats (FL; OH; MO; NH; NC; LA) that Republicans aren’t 100% confident about, even in this environment so favorable to their party. I wouldn’t normally include LA, but Vitter drawing a primary challenge and also a newsmaking right-wing indy challenge, coupled with his personal scandals and the oil spill mess, all puts that seat and Melancon at least on the radar.
I’m curious, though, what makes you think Johnny Isakson might be vulnerable?
with the latest Rasmussen poll showing Coons within 11 points now. Delaware is a blue state – I think this one will be very close once the Coons campaign tries to separate nice-guy Castle from his horrid voting record.
Polling of this race has been sparse.
On all the rankings. With Harry Reid, he will definitely win that race. Reid’s ads are really good, he is a solid campaigner and he just started his campaign. Angle will keep making gaffes. I know Harry Reid is unpopular but I do not see how Angle can even come within a few points of Reid.
Thank you for your rankings. This is an excellent and well thought out presentation.
As an avid back seat driver, I can’t resist offering my own opinions and stating my reasons for them.
2010 Senate Big Board (as of June update) by StephenCLE
with my modifications preceeded by *****
Solid Dem – 6 seats (Ben – 7 seats)
New York (Schumer)
Vermont (Leahy)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Oregon (Wyden)
Hawaii (Inouye)
New York (Gillibrand)
***** Connecticut (Blumenthal)….. Insurmounable lead
Likely Dem – 1 seat (Ben 3 seats)
***** West Virginia (Manchin) Republican’s don’t have time
***** Nevada (Reid) ….. Angle can’t shut up!
***** Wisconsin (Feingold) ….. Johnson too far to right
Lean Dem – 4 seats (Ben – 5 seats)
California (Boxer)
Washington (Murray)
***** Kentucky (Open) ….. Rand Paul can’t shut up
***** Colorado (Open)….. Buck, Norton out of mainstream
***** Illinois (Open)….. Kirk can’t apologize convincingly
Toss Up – 5 seats (Ben – 3 seats)
Ohio (Open)
Missouri (Open)
Pennsylvania (Open)
Lean Ind – 1 seat
Florida (Open)
Lean Rep – 5 seats (Ben – 4 seats)
North Carolina (Burr)
New Hampshire (Open)
Louisiana (Vitter)
***** Delaware (Open)….. Ultra Pro Abortion group backing Castle’s Republican Challenger. Will move right or die!
Likely Rep – 5 seats (Ben 3 seats)
Arkansas (Lincoln)
***** Indiana (Open)….. unemployment number 1 issue
***** Alaska (Murkowski) ….. Contentious Republican Primary with guest appearance by half term governor.
Solid Rep – 9 seats (Ben 11 seats)
South Carolina (Demint)
Alabama (Shelby)
North Dakota (Open)
South Dakota (Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Coburn)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Crapo)
***** Iowa (Grassley) ….. Iowa loves this schmuck
***** Arizona (McCain) ….. McCain will have job even after death
***** Georgia (Isakson)….. uhhh? because????
DISCLAIMER ON MY PREDICTIONS:
The first time I bet on anything, I picked Sonny Liston to beat Mohammad Ali in their first fight.
Thank you for your rankings. This is an excellent and well thought out presentation.
As an avid back seat driver, I can’t resist offering my own opinions and stating my reasons for them.
2010 Senate Big Board (as of June update) by StephenCLE
with my modifications preceeded by *****
Solid Dem – 6 seats (Ben – 7 seats)
New York (Schumer)
Vermont (Leahy)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Oregon (Wyden)
Hawaii (Inouye)
New York (Gillibrand)
***** Connecticut (Blumenthal)….. Insurmounable lead
Likely Dem – 1 seat (Ben 3 seats)
***** West Virginia (Manchin) Republican’s don’t have time
***** Nevada (Reid) ….. Angle can’t shut up!
***** Wisconsin (Feingold) ….. Johnson too far to right
Lean Dem – 4 seats (Ben – 5 seats)
California (Boxer)
Washington (Murray)
***** Kentucky (Open) ….. Rand Paul can’t shut up
***** Colorado (Open)….. Buck, Norton out of mainstream
***** Illinois (Open)….. Kirk can’t apologize convincingly
Toss Up – 5 seats (Ben – 3 seats)
Ohio (Open)
Missouri (Open)
Pennsylvania (Open)
Lean Ind – 1 seat
Florida (Open)
Lean Rep – 5 seats (Ben – 4 seats)
North Carolina (Burr)
New Hampshire (Open)
Louisiana (Vitter)
***** Delaware (Open)….. Ultra Pro Abortion group backing Castle’s Republican Challenger. Will move right or die!
Likely Rep – 5 seats (Ben 3 seats)
Arkansas (Lincoln)
***** Indiana (Open)….. unemployment number 1 issue
***** Alaska (Murkowski) ….. Contentious Republican Primary with guest appearance by half term governor.
Solid Rep – 9 seats (Ben 11 seats)
South Carolina (Demint)
Alabama (Shelby)
North Dakota (Open)
South Dakota (Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Coburn)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Crapo)
***** Iowa (Grassley) ….. Iowa loves this schmuck
***** Arizona (McCain) ….. McCain will have job even after death
***** Georgia (Isakson)….. uhhh? because????
DISCLAIMER ON MY PREDICTIONS:
The first time I bet on anything, I picked Sonny Liston to beat Mohammad Ali in their first fight.
It looks like the Democrats can avoid huge losses in the Senate. I’ve been hesitant to call Missouri a pickup, but Carnahan is keeping it very close and I think she can narrowly pull it off if turnout is good for Democrats.
Likely D
New York
Oregon
Connecticut
Lean D
California
Washington
Wisconsin
Toss Up
Ohio
Colorado
Missouri
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Florida
Kentucky
Lean R
New Hampshire
Indiana
North Carolina
Louisiana
Delaware
Arkansas
Likely R
Georgia
Iowa
Arizona
North Dakota