Below are my death-defying, shark jumping Senate predictions. Same method as my Governor predictions of days ago. Only one major change from my prior Senate predictions, which is Harry Reid jumping out to a strong lead over Sharron Angle. This leaves Democrats down two Senate seats, with Republicans picking up AR, CO, DE, IN, and ND, and Dems picking up FL, KY, and MO. It is not lost on me that this is a very optimistic prediction, but it is what I really think is going to happen in my completely biased, die-hard Democratic little head.
AK – Murkowski (R) 60, McAdams (D) 34 – Would love to see GOP primary polling here.
AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Shelby will not need to break into his eight figure war chest.
AR – Boozman (R) 54, Lincoln (D) 43 – Lincoln has lots of $$$ and still a lot of Dems in AR.
AZ – McCain (R) 56, Glassman (D) 40 – McCain’s primary troubles have all but faded away.
CA – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 45 -Boxer Q2 fundraising gives me confidence.
CO – Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 47 – Colorado still a pretty conservative state.
CT – Blumenthal (D) 56, McMahon (R) 43 – Blumenthal’s troubles way behind him.
DE – Castle (R) 53, Coons (D) 46 – Would love to see some GOP primary polling here.
FL – Crist (I) 42, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 17 – Crist Q2 fundraising as an Indy was lights out.
GA – Isakson (R) 56, Thurmond (D) 42 – Barnes at top of ticket helps Thurmond keep it respectable.
HI – Inouye (D) 65, Roco (R) 33 – Should be no trouble for Inouye.
IA – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 42 – Strong recruit but not the year to take out Grassley.
ID – Crapo (R) 68, Sullivan (D) 30 – Crapo may break 70% here.
IL – Giannoulias (D) 49, Kirk (R) 45 – What a couple of pieces of work these guys are.
IN – Coats (R) 55, Ellsworth (D) 43 – Ellsworth Q2 fundraising was pretty lame.
KS – Moran (R) 64, Johnston (D) 33 – Johnston the surprising Dem primary leader.
KY – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 47 – Could Paul be any clearer that he doesn’t give a rip about the working man?
LA – Vitter (R) 48, Melancon (D) 47 – Third party conservative candidates keep this one very close.
MD – Mikulski (D) 64, Wargotz (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Mikulski lead.
MO – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Classic close MO election. Carnahan cleans up in KC and STL.
NC – Burr (R) 51, Marshall (D) 46 – Libertarian candidate helps keep this pretty close.
ND – Hoeven (R) 66, Potter (D) 32 – Hoeven could break 70% in an open seat race.
NH – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 42 – Hodes has shown very little promise as a statewide candidate so far.
NV – Reid (D) 49, Angle (R) 41 – I never imagined Angle would be THIS much of a gift.
NY (A) – Schumer (D) 65, Townsend (R) 34 – Polling confirms big Schumer lead.
NY (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – Gillibrand taking nothing for granted with big Q2 haul.
OH – Portman (R) 49, Fisher (D) 48 – Why can’t Fisher raise money? Is it all going to Strickland?
OK – Coburn (R) 68, Miles (D) 30 – At least we found some dudes to run against Coburn.
OR – Wyden (D) 59, Huffman (R) 39 – Polling looking good for Wyden after some scary Ras numbers.
PA – Sestak (D) 51, Toomey (R) 46 – Huge Q2 haul for Toomey a little daunting. Pick it up, Joe!
SC – Demint (R) 74, Greene (D) 18, Clements (G) 8 – What … a … fiasco.
SD – Thune (R) unopposed – How could SD Dems not find a warm body to face freshman Thune?
UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 33 – Dems won’t be making any noise in Utah this cycle.
VT – Leahy (D) 61, Britton (R) 35 – Third party progressive candidates only thing keeping it this close.
WA – Murray (D) 51, Rossi (R) 47 – Wonder if Didier is making any headway in the primary.
WI – Feingold (D) 51, Johnson (R) 48 – We all love Feingold, but was he ever the best fit for WI?
WV – Manchin (D) 62, Ireland (R) 38 – May be generous to Ireland. Capito sounds afraid to run.
I thought I’d give you a rundown on my thoughts of your predictions…
AK – Murkowski (R) 60, McAdams (D) 34 – Pretty much in line with my thoughts.
AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Agree…Shelby in a cake walk.
AR – Boozman (R) 54, Lincoln (D) 43 – Agree..A small double digit victory for Boozman.
AZ – McCain (R) 56, Glassman (D) 40 – Mostly agree…I could see McCain breaking 60%.
CA – Boxer (D) 51, Fiorina (R) 45 -Mostly agree. Boxer will win, but might be a tad closer.
CO – Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 47 – Not a bad prediction, but Bennet could squeak by.
CT – Blumenthal (D) 56, McMahon (R) 43 – Excellent prediction.
DE – Castle (R) 53, Coons (D) 46 – I’m not giving up on Delaware. Castle probably will squeak by.
FL – Crist (I) 42, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 17 – Crist will win this race and become the de facto Democratic candidate.
GA – Isakson (R) 56, Thurmond (D) 42 – Thurmond will be respectable, but won’t pull this race out.
HI – Inouye (D) 65, Roco (R) 33 – I concur.
IA – Grassley (R) 57, Conlin (D) 42 – Keeping Grassley under 60% in a Republican year is impressive.
ID – Crapo (R) 68, Sullivan (D) 30 – Crapo in a landslide.
IL – Giannoulias (D) 49, Kirk (R) 45 – Kirk could win this race except he doesn’t have the proper temperment.
IN – Coats (R) 55, Ellsworth (D) 43 – I see this race being much closer. Right now, Coats by 7-8%.
KS – Moran (R) 64, Johnston (D) 33 – Easy GOP victory.
KY – Conway (D) 50, Paul (R) 47 – A great Democratic candidate vs. a weak GOP candidate in a Red state. Could go either way, but I agree with you pick.
LA – Vitter (R) 48, Melancon (D) 47 – Vitter is trash, but I see him winning in the double digits.
MD – Mikulski (D) 64, Wargotz (R) 34 – I concur with your pick.
MO – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – I agree with your pick IF Carnahan excites the KC/St. Louis base. Could go either way.
NC – Burr (R) 51, Marshall (D) 46 – Marshall will keep this race close, but I mostly agree with your prediction.
ND – Hoeven (R) 66, Potter (D) 32 – Hoeven will hit th 70% threshold.
NH – Ayotte (R) 53, Hodes (D) 42 – Too early to tell. Ayotte could be bloodied in the primary, but should win.
NV – Reid (D) 49, Angle (R) 41 – Reid will win this race. Angle was the wrong candidate for the GOP.
NY (A) – Schumer (D) 65, Townsend (R) 34 – Schumer will win easily.
NY (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 39 – I concur.
OH – Portman (R) 49, Fisher (D) 48 – Money isn’t everything. Portman has a lot of baggage. If Fisher picks up the fundraising, he will win.
OK – Coburn (R) 68, Miles (D) 30 – I concur.
OR – Wyden (D) 59, Huffman (R) 39 – Wyden is in no trouble here.
PA – Sestak (D) 51, Toomey (R) 46 – I don’t see Toomey winning this race. Sestak is a great candidate.
SC – Demint (R) 74, Greene (D) 18, Clements (G) 8 – Fiasco indeed. However, I still see Demint under 70%.
SD – Thune (R) unopposed – 100% correct.
UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 33 – I agree.
VT – Leahy (D) 61, Britton (R) 35 – Leahy will have no problems here.
WA – Murray (D) 51, Rossi (R) 47 – I question if Rossi really wants to be a US Senator. I agree.
WI – Feingold (D) 51, Johnson (R) 48 – Feingold will win, but too close for comfort.
WV – Manchin (D) 62, Ireland (R) 38 – If the special election does occur, Manchin will win easily.
But even so, I still find it hard to grasp Colorado sending Ken Buck to the Senate. Of course I also find it hard to grasp why Democrats haven’t been able to make “Bush Administration” & “He Sent Ohio Jobs Overseas” the first things people think of when they hear the name Rob Portman.
I think these races could fall in the ranges you estimate, which always makes for fun reading.
The only prediction that I have enough background to think your numbers may be tad off is Indiana, where I think Ellsworth breaks 45. Ellsworth will hold the base together and wins enough independents to keep it close by election night.
My only nitpick is with Missouri – I think Blunt pulls it out just because of it being a conservative year. Ohio is a total tossup. I think Portman will win, but I would put no money down on it.
Now do not get me wrong Ellsworth absolutely could lose, I have it at lean R for the moment but fully expect to change the rating once the race really starts up. However if he loses it will not be by that large of margin. Remember he still has more money than Coats.
I am also not very confident about Illinois, I mean it has a liberal lean and Kirk is very flawed but Alexi’s ethics could keep him from winning. It could go either way though.
I am still not getting my hopes up with Kentucky, it absolutely could happen, time well tell I suppose. However I was sooooo sure we would win the last two times to no prevail.
Missouri is not going to happen unless Blunt runs a crappy campaign or Carnahan runs a great one. The state has a R lean and Blunt is meh but I have my doubts.
Louisiana could be close but I kind of expect it to be a bigger Vitter win than that.
The same criteria that you used for your Governor’s prediction, such as the 2004 exit polls? It seems more appropriate if you did, because these Senate seats were last up for grabs in 2004.
For the life of me, I can’t tell what Ron Johnson brings to the table that Tim Michels didn’t. Remember Feingold outperformed Kerry by about 5 points in 2004 en route to a 55-44 win.
Also, Johnson is pretty weak on social conservative issues, despite the way Wisconsin Right to Life is trying to prop him up. It will be interesting to see:
1. How large a share of the vote Westlake gets in the GOP primary.
2. How many of those people decide to vote for Rob Taylor, the Constitution Party candidate, instead of Johnson–especially if it looks like Feingold is probably going to pull it out anyway.
I also left a comment on your gubernatorial predictions as well–I think Barrett’s in better shape than you think he’s in. But maybe that’s just because I live in Wisconsin and really don’t want Scott Walker as Governor. I have my problems with Barrett as well (would prefer a pro-life Democratic option and would prefer an intellectually honest pro-life PAC that doesn’t prop up Johnson.)
Barrett really has an opening to say, “While Scott Walker’s been campaigning for governor for the past 6 years, I’ve been working hard for Milwaukee and cleaning up Walker’s messes.” In some ways he could turn his relative silence up to this point into a strength.
If Vitter is under 50%, shouldn’t he have to go to a runoff? Do you have a prediction for that?
I’m assuming a national environment about as bad as today, where 35-45 Dems lose and the House is likely gone (either GOP control or compromise Speaker). If things get significantly worse, then some of the “unelectable” Repubs could well win.
1. I don’t see how Colorado can be pigeonholed as conservative anymore. The Democrats have made great inroads there in this decade, and not just due to the waves of 2006 and 2008. The inroads have been structural. Bennet hasn’t done anything particular one way or the other, and he could/would be beaten by a mainstream Republican. Buck isn’t one, and I expect him to lose, albeit narrowly.
2. The Florida numbers seem about right if Greene gets 17%. My guess is that he gets less than 10 and Crist wins easily. If the Dem breaks 20, Rubio may win.
3. If Melancon gets 47, he’ll be the next senator from LA.
4. Kirk would have won in Illinois if not for the scandal regarding his military service. He may still win, but I think Alexi has to be the favorite.
5. I think we have a better chance in Ohio than Missouri and KY.
6. Murray and Boxer may perform better than you’re expecting, Feingold may have trouble I think. If the situation for the Dems gets even slightly worse, he could lose. I can see a scenario where Feingold loses and Reid wins easily, something unthinkable a few months ago.
7. Sestak needs to disqualify Toomey ASAP by painting him as extreme right. If he doesn’t do so, it will be tight to the wire.
In the scenario that I gave above, my predictions right now:
D to R: N Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware
R to D/I: Florida, Ohio, Missouri
Very close holds:
D: PA, WI, CO, IL
R: KY
Solid set of predictions. However, I firmly believe that if Marshall has any success at all raising money, she’ll beat Burr. People here can’t stand Burr and would vote for any reasonable warm body instead. Plus women dominate in statewide races against men here, regardless of party. I forget how many races in a row, but it’s pretty formidable.
By the way, I don’t think the environment is anywhere near as bad for Dems as a lot of pundits are painting it. People don’t engage in elections this early (unless they read stuff like SSP!) and issues will actually come into play by November.
No reason Dem’s shouldn’t fight this one. As election day approaches I’d expect others to become leaning more to R and DE will be one of the more viable races to dump money into after Labor Day.
Colorado still annoys me. The whole thing could have been done so much better, right from the appointment of then-unknown Bennett.
I agree with most of the rest. I think Feingold wins by more than you think but its still closer than we’d like. Of course a win is a win.
Ohio is sad but the Fisher/Bruner thing has been ugly from the start. Fisher sucks at fundraising which was a pretty big issue considering Portman has had $$$$ all along. Oh well.
Ayotte is bothersome because I think she gets entrenched a la Snowe/Collins in neighboring Maine. She may never lose this seat if she wins this cycle and just votes the party line 98% of the time but emphasizes the 2% she crosses over during each subsequent campaign. Sigh.