Magellan Strategies: (7/18, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 38 (32)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 17 (12)
John Oxendine: 12 (18)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Jeff Chapman: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 0 (0)
Undecided: 7 (14)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspapers (7/15-16, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8-13 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 29 (23)
John Oxendine: 22 (31)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (6)
Ray McBerry: 2 (2)
Jeff Chapman: 1 (1)
Undecided: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±5%)
InsiderAdvantage (7/14, likely Republican primary voters, 7/1 in parentheses):
Karen Handel: 24 (18)
Nathan Deal: 16 (12)
John Oxendine: 15 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (8)
Jeff Chapman: 6 (6)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 1 (1)
Undecided: 22 (34)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Three different polls are out today of the Republican gubernatorial primary (to be held tomorrow). If one thing’s certain, it’s that Karen Handel, the former SoS, is likely to be one of the participants in the runoff. There’s now a pitched battle for 2nd place, between Nathan Deal, John Oxendine (falling out of a solid first just weeks ago), and even state Sen. Eric Johnson (who went on a last-minute TV ad binge).
Handel’s recent success has lots to do with Sarah Palin and Jan Brewer endorsements, but also with a good ad strategy: branding herself the “reformer” and hitting her opponents’ corruption. With Deal having bailed out early from the House to avoid getting nailed on ethics problems, and now with allegations just emerging over the last few weeks regarding linkages between Oxendine‘s regulatory activities as insurance commissioner, and big payouts from those insurers he’s supposed to regulate, the ads wrote themselves.
Pollster.com’s regression lines paint a pretty clear picture of the last few weeks:
Barnes must be loving this. Not that he can pick up votes from a fractured Republican primary but I’m not sure the entire Republican vote can coslesce behind whoever wins.
are so different between those three polls… not sure what that means.
Magellan 7%
Mason-Dixon 13%
InsiderAdvantage 22%
With Handel’s considerable current momentum, if the election were held next week rather than tomorrow she maybe could have avoided a runoff.
Haven’t there been like tons of polls on the GOP primary showing each of Deal, Handel and Oxendine in the lead at some point??? How can they be all over the place???
That being said, if it turns out that Handel takes it (either now or at the runoff), any GA folks out there who know of her chances against Barnes? I fear that there are still a lot of Barnes haters out in middle GA and Handel may be seen as fresh and different (read woman) but if elected (as in Brewer and likely Haley) will turn out to be so incompetent and outmatched for the job that the state will (rightly) suffer for it.
Now I’m saying this not because they are women, preposterous as that sounds, but because everyone seems to be getting in on the “freshest is bestest” act without thinking of experience or governing competency, which, for me at least, is something I’ve been concerned with since Obama’s election.
I have always heard from my political science days that endorsements don’t really matter that much and that grassroots support and a media presence were much more important.
But Handel’s rise is completely the opposite; it is all due to Palin’s endorsement. Just look at the trajectory after Palin’s endorsement and how many polls now show Handel leading. I just don’t get it. Handel has the least ads up of any major candidate D or R and she is not more visible than the other GOP candidates in any significant way (yard signs, bumper stickers, field operation, etc.)
What is going on?
I just realized that I’m going to be flying into Atlanta tomorrow for work and that tomorrow is the primary. I’m in the northern suburbs of Atlanta so I can try to gauge what people think about everyone politically while I’m there for the week.
I had left him for dead a couple months ago but he’s built his campaign around a single issue (brining a version of AZ SB1070 to Georgia) and struck a cord with a good chunk of the primary electorate. At this point, I see him as the second strongest GOP choice after Handel because he can best consolidate the rural vote. Oxendine comes off as too slick for rural Georgia, and I think he would lose some of the southern counties to Barnes.
Handel, I believe, is the GOP’s best shot at a hold here. She can hold down the margins in the Atlanta area, and the Palin and Brewer endorsements will help her in the Bible Belt region.