Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (7/17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32
John Boozman (R): 57
Trevor Drown (I): 3
John Gray (G): 2
Undecided: 6Mike Beebe (D-inc): 50
Jim Keet (R): 41
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.7%)
This is the first non-Rasmussen poll of the race following the June runoff, and while it’s certainly a little gaudy for John Boozman, I have every reason to believe this is going to be a painful race to watch. Somewhat frustratingly, Zata3 doesn’t provide party breakdowns (PDF). I’ll also note that their sample is older and more male than the 2008 exit polls, though of course, 2010 ain’t 2008.
Mike Beebe’s numbers also stand out – not because they’re terrible or anything, but because pretty much everyone had him figured as unassailable, even in a year like this. Indeed, PPP has regularly found him to be one of the most popular governors in the nation, a pretty remarkable feat given how badly almost every incumbent is performing. So it’s possible that these numbers are a little too good for Keet, a former state legislator who hasn’t held office since 1996 and who’s been absolutely swamped on the fundraising front. I definitely would like to see confirmation before concluding this race might be competitive.
Lincoln is the Rick Santorum of 2010. She will be lucky to do as well as he did in 2006 honestly.
Beebe’s numbers are interesting. I am sure the Republicans wish they ran someone better against him now as some dude is within 10.
this pollster have a good reputation? I have never heard of it. I suppose it would have to in order to make a front page post. I can buy the Lincoln results but I have my doubts about Beebe winning by only nine. I will definitely want confirmation of this. Even Rasmussen has him leading a lot better than this.
The poll adds up to 101%, no sure what is with that, but that aside, Beebe will win this one easily. Obviously, there will be a lot of ticket splitting happening. If Beebe runs strong in the Delta region, then Chad Causey in AR-1 can squeeze out of win. AR-1 is one of the districts that Dems held onto in 1994 in the midst of total disaster everywhere else, so I’m hoping they retain this time around too.
Blanche Lincoln felt a little heat from this poll. So she decided to release an internal showing her down only by 9 points. This is from Steve Singiser at the Daily Kos
Shows her down 9. All the usual caveats for internal polls, but I’ve never heard of ZataI3 or whatever and so I’m thinking I’ll take her poll over the pollster equivalent of “random dude.” Morevoer, Rasmussen has Beebe up 24, which suggests Zata-dude is off by at least 15 (and that assumes Ras is right), which would be right in line with her internals.
You all (and yes, I mean the writers of this fantastic site … and I mean that) are completely blinded by your hatred for Lincoln and your disappointment that Halter didn’t beat her. You’re determined that she’s going to get wiped out. It ain’t going to happen. Oh, she’s quite likely to lose, don’t get me wrong. But you don’t beat two (or is it three?) term incumbents by twenty plus points if they don’t have a huge ethics issue. The state was almost as conservative six years ago (when W romped in AR), and six years before that (during impeachment). And she won both times by double digits, including once over a guy with the same name as her current opponent.
And she’s rolling in cash (and Boozman isn’t).
This is going to be a half-dozen point race. He has the edge, but if you think 38% of the electorate has soured on her in six years (25% in this poll, plus her 13% margin in 2004), we’ll be lucky to have 100 seats in the House when 2010 is over.
All that’s going on is Halter’s supporters are not (yet) telling pollsters that they’ll vote for her, because they’re still angry. That will change post Labor Day, especially after she starts spending her back account.
(And no, I really really DON’T like Blanche Lincoln … Didn’t like Halter either, but that’s another story).
But I don’t actually buy that she’ll lose by 25. I ultimately think Lincoln loses by something like 14-15 points, maybe as high as 18 (like Santorum did in 2006) but even in horrible circumstances (which are definitely present for Lincoln) it takes an awful lot for an incumbent to drop below 40%.