Georgia Primary Election Preview

  • GA-Gov (D): Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes has held commanding leads in every credible poll of this primary, so the question tonight isn’t who finishes first, but rather, will Barnes capture the Democratic nomination without needing a runoff? Four out of the five pollsters who have released polls of this contest in July have pegged Barnes’ support in the mid-to-high 50s, while the fifth, Public Policy Polling, had Barnes at 49%. Barnes has dominated the airwaves at the expense of his next closest competitor, state AG Thurbert Baker, but Baker recently picked up the support of Bill Clinton, the most recent Democrat to win Georgia at the Presidential level. Baker may have also earned some favor with base voters by refusing to challenge the constitutional validity of Congress’ healthcare reform legislation passed earlier this year — a move that earned him the full wrath of sitting Gov. Sonny Perdue and the GOP-dominated state legislature. Rounding out the field are House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and ex-SoS/Labor Commissioner/GA National Guard Adjutant-General David Poythress, both of whom have failed to gain much traction in the polls. (J)
  • GA-Gov (R): What a difference a few weeks makes. One month ago, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine was a mortal lock to make the runoff (with just too many candidates for anyone to win outright), and looking likely to advance to the general election thanks to his financial advantages. A few ethical allegations and Sarah Palin endorsements later, former SoS Karen Handel has pulled into a dominant lead, with Oxendine struggling to even make the runoff. The most recent spate of polls has seen the Ox neck-and-neck with almost-as-sleazy former Rep. Nathan Deal for the 2nd runoff spot, and even, in one poll, sinking into 4th behind state Sen. Eric Johnson, who aired a last-minute TV ad blitz and might (a la Robert Bentley in Alabama) sneak into the runoff by virtue of not being any of the other candidates.
  • GA-04 (D): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Hank Johnson faces a serious primary challenge from ex-DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones and DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes. Jones, as you may recall, was last seen losing the 2008 Democratic Senate nomination to Jim Martin after admitting that he voted for George W. Bush not once but twice. (Furthermore, the man also carries around some pretty ugly baggage.) Jones has been aggressively hitting Johnson, who disclosed last December that he’s been battling Hepatitis C for years, for supposedly being an absentee representative, and drawing attention to Johnson’s curious comments that the island of Guam may someday “capsize”. An internal poll for Johnson released in January had Johnson up by a 47-19 margin over Jones, with 5% for Stokes. And after a slow fundraising start to the year, Johnson has been raising and spending at a rate unmatched by Jones and Stokes. Johnson has also earned the endorsements of Barack Obama and former Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin. Still, in this summer of discontent, it’s worth watching races like this one. (J)
  • GA-07 (R): The Republican derby to replace retiring long-time wingnut Rep. John Linder is overloaded with candidates and likely to head to a runoff, but state Rep. Clay Cox seems to be in the driver’s seat, with former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed and several prominent state Senators having taken passes or bailed out of the race. Cox’s main opposition seems to be Linder’s former CoS, Rob Woodall. Interestingly, all eight candidates in the field have sworn fealty to Linder’s pet crackpot scheme, the so-called “Fair Tax” (a plan to replace the graduated income tax with a gigantic, and massively regressive, national sales tax).
  • GA-09 (R): They’ve already faced off two times in the last few months, so what’s one more time between friends? Former state Rep. Tom Graves won the special election to fill the seat left empty by Nathan Deal’s one-step-ahead-of-the-law resignation and is just settling in as a newly-minted U.S. Rep. However, now he has to face off once again against the man he defeated in the special primary and runoff: state Sen. Screamin’ Lee Hawkins. It’ll be an uphill fight for Hawkins, but Hawkins has a strong base in Hall County, and Graves may be further damaged by revelations about his attempts to dodge a lawsuit over an unpaid loan (which hadn’t fully broken when the special runoff happened).
  • GA-12 (D/R): The duel in the GA-12 Democratic primary between Rep. John Barrow and Regina Thomas seemed to catch some netroots attention in 2008; it pitted one of House Dems’ most conservative members (a particularly bad mismatch with his D+1 district) against an African-American former state Senator with a delightful array of hats. Her underfunded campaign barely captured a quarter of the vote, though, and the rematch this year seems to have inspired a netroots-wide ‘meh.’ Despite more of a head start this year, Thomas’s campaign is even more underfunded this time, and Barrow has been spending like mad to mitigate his constituents’ discontent with his ‘no’ vote on HCR. Barrow correctly understands that Thomas is his main opposition this year; with widely-self-touted Wayne Mosely sidelined last year by lawsuit-related financial woes, the NRCC doesn’t seem to have a prize pick in this primary. Former Thunderbolt fire chief Carl Smith seems to come closest to being the GOP’s establishment candidate here, while nuclear power plant safety inspector project manager Ray McKinney fancies himself the teabaggers’ choice.

    Have any predictions for tonight? Please share with us in the comments.

    Polls close at 7 pm ET.

    • 25 thoughts on “Georgia Primary Election Preview”

    1. Karen Handel – 39%

      Nathan Deal – 19%

      John Oxendine – 17%

      Eric Johnson – 16%

      Jeff Chapman – 5%

      Ray McBerry – 3%

      Otis Putnam – 1%

      Roy Barnes – 51%

      Thurbert Baker – 25%

      David Poythress – 9%

      DuBose Porter – 6%

      Carl Camon – 5%

      Bill Bolton – 3%

      Randal Mangham – 1%

    2. U.S. Senate (D): Hadley does better than expected (got my vote!): 85-15 Thurmond.

      Gov (D): Barnes avoids a runoff.  He finishes no less than third in every county, winning Metro Atlanta in particular (other than maybe DeKalb County, where Baker lives).  Porter wins his home county of Laurens and maybe some surrounding counties and maybe gets some seconds and thirds in rural Georgia but doesn’t get past 7%.  

      Gov (R): Handel wins the plurality with Oxendine, Deal, and Johnson fighting it out for second (recounts and lawsuits, anyone?).  Deal does well in his old district and the rest of rural Northern Georgia as well as Forsyth County.  Handel wins Fulton, Cobb, Cherokee Counties.  Oxendine wins Gwinnett and some surrounding counties; he and Handel split the South Metro.  Johnson does well in Southeastern Georgia (but me be hampered by Chapman winning his district).

      Attorney General (D): Teilhet wins, doing well in Metro Atlanta and Columbus.

      Attorney General (R): Runoff.  Olens does well due to being from heavily populated Cobb but social issues hurt him in many places.  Wood has South Georgia all to himself.  Smith does well in North Georgia.  I think they’ll all be bunched up.

      Secretary of State (D): Runoff.  Buckner gets through, along with either Mills or Horlacher.  

      School Superintendent (D): Runoff between Farokhi and Westlake.

      Labor Commissioner (D): Coleman wins 60%-40% (and I’m in that 40%)

      Insurance Commissioner (R): Hudgens leads but gets forced into a runoff.

      GA-04 (D): Johnson gets the most votes and probably avoids a runoff.  He’ll win either way.

      GA-12 (D): Barrow wins, but Thomas breaks at least 35%, maybe even 40%

      SD-03 (R): Carter wins a close one on his way to becoming the third Carter in the State Senate, 52-48

      SD-17 (D): Nichols wins fairly easily, at least 55-45.

      SD-31 (R): Heath gets at least 55%

      SD-32 (R): Judson Hill survives, 65-35

      SD-35 (D): The third battle between James and Johnson will be inconclusive and will have to be decided by a fourth in the runoff

      SD-37 (R): John Wiles gets primaried out of office, 48-52

      SD-40 (R): Millar and Sibold go to a runoff.

      SD-44 (D): Davenport and Glanton go into a runoff due to Dawn Randolph getting at least 15%

      SD-52 (R): Loudermilk wins, easily.

      HD-33 (D): Wilkerson unseats Wix, 53-47

      HD-80 (D): Murray wins.  The openly gay Gross lost the Stonewall Democrats’ endorsement to the straight Murray.  That, I think, means something very important.

      HD-143 (D): Graham goes to a runoff with, say, Santamaria.

      HD-167 (R): Shaw’s party switch (being the son of the retiring Democratic incumbent!) hampers him some, but he wins fairly easily

    3. Very light turnout (although my county doesn’t have many Democrats, so basically only one party was active).

      My votes:

      U.S. Senate: R.J. Hadley

      Governor: Roy Barnes

      Lt. Governor: Carol Porter

      Secretary of State: Mike Mills (no, not that Mike Mills)

      Attorney General: Rob Teilhet

      Labor Commissioner: Darryl Hicks

      Insurance Commissioner: Mary Squires (unopposed, but I still voted for her)

      Agriculture Commissioner: [Left it blank]

      State School Superintendent: Beth Farokhi

      Public Service Commissioner: Keith Moffett

      State Senate: [Left it blank]

      SPLOST [Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax] Referendum: Yes

      My Congressional district, State House district, and all local offices are uncontested by Democrats this year.

    4. Why is this the first time I’m hearing about this? Hats are basically the female equivalent of mustaches, in that they’re wonderfully old-fashioned and increasingly rare. I would’ve probably sent Regina Thomas money had I known she possessed a delightful array of hats. Goddamit, people, I come to SSP like every day to learn critically important political details like this and I’m just learning about it now? I feel let down.

      /tongue-in-cheek

      I’ll leave the predictions to the folks who know and care about Georgia politics.

    6. Democratic Primary

      U.S. Senate – Thurmond

      Governor – Barnes

      Lt. Governor – Porter

      Attorney General – Hodges

      Secretary of State – Mills + Sinkfield run-off

      State School Superintendent – Westlake + Farokhi run-off

      Labor Commissioner – Hicks

      Insurance Commissioner – Squires (only candidate running)

      Agriculture Commissioner – Powell (only candidate running)

      U.S. Senate – Isakson (only candidate running)

      Governor – Oxendine/Handel/Johnson run-off (choose 2)

      Lt. Governor – Cagle (only candidate running)

      Attorney General – Wood + Olens run-off

      Secretary of State – MacGinnitie

      State School Superintendent – Barge

      Labor Commissioner – Everson

      Insurance Commissioner – Purcell + Harp run-off

      Agriculture Commissioner – Black

      Here’s a link to the results:

      http://sos.georgia.gov/electio…

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