PPP (pdf) (7/16-18, Nevada voters, no trendlines):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 48
Sharron Angle (R): 46
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Hot on the heels of Mason-Dixon’s game-changing poll giving Harry Reid a 7-point lead over Sharron Angle comes PPP. PPP’s 2-point lead for Reid seems like a likelier picture of this race to me, although there is one methodological difference here that I note: PPP didn’t include third-party choices or Nevada’s notorious “None of These” option, both of which seem to act as a safety-valve for Reid by soaking up first-and-foremost anti-Reid votes.
Reid’s approvals are 44/53, not the kind of numbers that usually get you re-elected… unless you’re up against Angle, who’s been thoroughly defined by Reid (and by her own long history of saying crazy things), leaving her with favorables of 36/52. 38% of voters say she’s “too conservative” (with 38% saying just right, and 10% saying “too liberal” — perhaps motivated by her pro-massages-for-prisoners stance). Also, 50% say she’s “extremist” while only 39% say “mainstream.” That’s not the kind of image you can usually rehabilitate in four months, but try she will: starting with her new TV spot which she’s launching. It’s a positive ad, believe it or not… well, to the extent that any ad that starts out with the candidate intoning “We live in a fearful society right now!” can be considered positive. The buy is for $330K.
The last poll I recall showing Reid over 45 was Research 2000 in late Nov. 2008.
It doesn’t do anything other than hit on way over-used, trite sayings (“we the people are the solution”) — UUGH. The people in the “audience” look like part of a test marketing group, and were told to nod in agreement or clap when the big sign lights up telling them to do that.
I guess it’s a success in that viewers are goint to watch Sharon Angle for 30 consecutive seconds and she’s not going to say anything too crazy. But with 88% of people having an opinion of her (a very, very high number for a challenger), and 52% a negative one, I dont’ she how she rebrands herself.
Being it probably won’t poll as high on election day just as third party candidates generally don’t do as well as they poll. For example Corzine would have likely won if Daggett had held even a bit of the support he had before Christie started attacking him.
the new New Jersey?
I like the trend of the Reid polls. Slow, but steady. Let’s hope Reid can keep increasing his popularity, while Angle continues to screw up. Who would’ve thought Angle would’ve been so obtuse. 🙂
PPP has 16% of Obama voters not showing up. That contrasts with the 10% figure in Florida and the 2% to 6% more common rate they have (and again the 22% and 28% PA and WI outliers).
16% is unlikely. Nevada AA turnout did spike in 2008, as did Latino turnout to a much lesser degree, but Latinos will likely be more motivated compared to the rest of the population.
I could swallow 10%, but 16% is too much. Given the lack of protest choices offered, this poll works out to be right in line with Mason-Dixon’s, reflecting probably an 8 or 9 point lead for Reid.