Public Policy Polling (7/16-18, Florida voters, 3/5-8 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (25)
Marco Rubio (R): 29 (34)
Charlie Crist (I): 35 (27)
Alex Snitker (L): 4 (n/a)
Undecided: 15 (14)Jeff Greene (D): 13
Marco Rubio (R): 29
Charlie Crist (I): 38
Alex Snitker (L): 3
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.3%)
These are pretty nice numbers for Crist, who’s enjoying a remarkable turnaround since March by effectively supplanting Meek as the Democratic nominee in all but title. Crist is winning 44% of Democrats vs. 35% for Meek, and 52% when Greene’s name is on the ballot. Of course, holding together a coalition of voters that includes nearly a quarter of Republicans, 40% of independents, and nearly half of Democrats is a narrow line to walk for the next four months.
Crist is certainly enjoying the external benefits of the Dem-on-Dem fratricide between Meek and Greene, but I have to wonder which candidate he’d prefer to face in the fall. Meek is undeniably the more credible candidate, and pulls more Democrats from Crist’s column, but he should be pretty badly bruised by Greene’s moneybombs come September. That said, Greene is the less appealing general election choice, but this billionaire crumb-bum will be able to run as many negative ads as he can dream of after the primary.
Another interesting stat, as highlighted by Tom Jensen, is that Crist’s voters would rather see him caucus with the Senate Democrats by a 55-22 spread. Once elected, Crist will know who sent them there. I’d expect him to vote (and caucus) accordingly.
will there be a results from the gov race, or were those last week? I almost feel sorry for mccollum right, after a lifetime of statewide failure, it looked like he would finally be elected governor and WHAM rich douche to the scene!
while the state gop has cast him out, would the state democratic party take him in? I mean really? Penn democrats (voters and officials) welcomed specter, until they didn’t. if crist wanted to be a dem, short of announcing he would caucus with them before the election (something i doubt he would do, in order to play both sides) what would crist have to do? win the primary on his own in 2016? cleave himself to obama or the party?
I was astonished to see Meek wasting time posting comments on this very website. That convinced me that his campaign was kaput.
the more I expect the Democratic vote will collapse even more fully into Crist’s camp.
the most unstable election of the cycle.
I have no idea how it will turn out.
This race is very unstable to say the least. If I was Crist, I would want Meek to win the primary. Greene and Rubio will be nuking him with attack ads where as Meek has no cash to run such a campaign. If Greene wins, Rubio wins. If Meek wins, Crist wins.
Crist needs this race to be between him and Rubio not him, Rubio and some Democrat going off to slaughter, but loaded with cash. The center is not going to hold for Crist if he is getting bombed from each side.
If Meek wins the nomination, I fully expect African-Americans to coalesce behind him, he’ll retain all of his Democratic endorsements, and he’ll perform decently in the SE. Bill Clinton will, undoubtedly, stump for him.
If Greene wins the nomination, I expect many of Meek’s Dem endorsements to bolt for Crist, ditto African-American voters. He will have the resources to run negative ads vs. Crist, but, if Crist runs on a positive message, given Greene’s lunacy, such may actually wind up helping Crist. Also, I think Greene would be a modest drag upon Alex Sink’s candidacy.
Current projections…
Democrat – 37%
Republican – 32%
Independent – 31%
Crist – 55/20/55 = 43%
Rubio – 5/80/35 = 39%
Meek – 40/0/10 = 18%
Crist – 70/20/55 = 49%
Rubio – 5/77/30 = 36%
Greene – 25/3/15 = 15%
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…
Also, check out his website’s issues page on health care. His talking points have quickly changed from unilaterally opposing Obama’s health care plan to “improving it” with “less government control” and more “free market solutions.” It’s become so abstract that I wouldn’t be surprised if he came out in favor of the public option next month.
And how good of a campaign is he running?
This sample has 10% of Obama voters not turning out to vote for anyone, relative to 100% McCain turnout.
That contrasts with PPP’s normal 2% to 6% range, but is way less than their PA and WI outliers of 22% and 28%.
So it is likely Crist’s and Meek’s share combined is actualy a couple points higher.
Rubio’s campaign has essentially collapsed… 31/46 favorables, he just has nowhere to go.
Has there been recent polling between Meek and Greene in the Dem primary? The last one was done by Quinnipiac early June. I’d like to see examples of just how close, or not, Greene is to winning this thing.