PPP (pdf) (7/16-18, Florida voters, 3/5-8 in parentheses):
Alex Sink (D): 36 (NA)
Rick Scott (R): 30 (NA)
Bud Chiles (I): 13 (NA)
Undecided: 22 (NA)Alex Sink (D): 37 (31)
Bill McCollum (R): 23 (44)
Bud Chiles (I): 14 (NA)
Undecided: 26 (25)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
This is a dramatically different race from the last time that PPP polled it in March: Rick Scott arrived on the right, and unleashed a multi-million dollar barrage of ads against Bill McCollum, and Bud Chiles plunked his rather small, beat-up flag in the middle, perhaps hoping to be the only survivor after everyone else nuked each other. If PPP’s new poll numbers are any indication, things aren’t going the way either of them planned: the civil war between Scott and McCollum seems to be irreparably damaging them, and Sink, rather than Chiles, seems to be the main beneficiary so far.
Scott and McCollum — who both seemed extremely personally unlikeable even before their primary began — seem to have reduced each other to off-the-charts levels of toxicity. Scott’s favorables are 23/41, while McCollum’s are an unbelievable 16/51 (levels previously reserved only for Dick Cheney and David Paterson). Sink’s the only person in positive territory, probably by virtue of being less-known, at 24/22. A post-primary unity rally between Scott and McCollum’s supporters seems unlikely to succeed: PPP also rolled out numbers yesterday showing that among Scott supporters, McCollum’s favorables are 7/65, and among McCollum supporters, Scott’s favorables are 4/62. With a late primary (Aug. 24), there would be little time for healing left anyway. If these numbers hold, despite a humdrum campaign so far, Alex Sink could wind up being the Democrats’ second luckiest sucker in November (as no one can top Harry Reid).
despite Democrats posting a net loss of governorships around the country, we would actually retake the biggest ones from the GOP: CA, FL, TX (& keep NY)
On giving away a Senate seat and the Gov’s Office (which will have significant ramifications for redistricting). That said, I wouldn’t put $5 down on who’s going to win the Senate or Governors race here (and I’m usually a betting man), as we don’t even know who all the chosen candidates will be. I have a feeling Florida is going to be up in the air until well after the primaries.
I bet the ads that caused those kind of approval ratings must be some real artwork wow!
is a first cousin of Sen. Kay Hagen, D-NC.
conceivably you could see a lot of the loser’s supporters vote for Chiles.
What is weird is that in this state the Governor and Senator might be elected with < 40% of the vote.
But I’ll take it!