PPP (pdf) (7/23-25, California voters, 5/21-23 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 46 (48)
Meg Whitman (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±3.95%)
Pundits keep telling us that Jerry Brown’s pretty consistent small lead in the polls is, at some point, going to get washed out by Meg Whitman’s seemingly limitless financial advantage. Whitman’s up against two things, though: California’s strong Democratic lean (the sample broke 58 Obama/36 McCain), and an apparent long-past point of diminshing returns on her advertising binge. Once everyone in the state has seen your ads 500 times, what more can you do if you’re selling a crappy product? As Republican sage Tom Davis would no doubt point out, that’s just as true with a person as it is with dog food.
Although the head-to-head gap is narrower than in May, PPP finds Meg Whitman’s favorables (now 30/50) haven’t recovered from her bruising primary battle with Steve Poizner (she was at 24/44 in May). Moreover, by a 52/31 margin, people agree that there should be some sort of legal limit on how much a person can donate to his or her own campaign. Perhaps increasingly aware that she can’t keep hiding behind her ads to November and will have to engage the news cycle, Whitman is today agreeing to two more debates (bringing the total to a whopping three).
PPP (pdf) (7/23-25, California voters, 5/21-23 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (45)
Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (42)
Undecided: 11 (13)
(MoE: ±3.95%)
While Jerry Brown’s lead over Meg Whitman has shrunk a bit, Barbara Boxer has put a little distance between her and Carly Fiorina since the May primary. Fiorina’s favorables are down in, well, Meg Whitman territory, at 28/40 (she was at 22/30 in May). Boxer’s approval, while still negative at 44/46, is improved from May (37/46), though, as she’s only recently started to make the case for re-election.
Before we move on from California, let’s take a ganja break. The highest-profile initiative on the ballot in November, Proposition 19, proposes to legalize and tax the consumption of marijuana. PPP finds the highest (no pun intended) support yet of any pollster for Prop 19: 52% support it, and 36% oppose it. 38% of Californians say they’ve tried marijuana, but even among the non-smokers, Prop 19 (and the revenue and enforcement-savings it generates) draws 44% support. Nate Silver points out one other interesting quirk: the large disparity in support for Prop 19 between automated and live-caller pollsters.
Finally, PPP looked at the gay marriage question, although that won’t be on the ballot again this year. In view of Prop 8’s narrow passage (52-48, which was a vote against gay marriage) in 2008, the needle has barely budged. Support for gay marriage in California is currently at 46-47.
First, I wish it could be repealed now.
But AFAIK, it’s not going to be on the CA ballot in Nov, and the Supremes still have a conservative majority.
Given the (assumed) enhanced turnout among African Americans and Hispanics expected in 2012 (and the assumed anti-gay marriage sentiment among said blocs), I’m not sure that’s the right time either.
2014?
Or is it best to just keep putting it on the ballot at every opportunity?
I think you sound too complacent about the CA-Gov race. Whitman is trending in the right direction, just as Boxer appears to be. It’s too risky to just assume that the political environment in CA (high Obama approval, unpopular Rep gov) will take care of the election. I really want to see Jerry Brown start a concerted effort to slow Whitman down.
and the state of the economy, these polls are nothing but good news for Democrats. I hope Whitman and Fiorna continue to blow millions on their quixotic challenges. California is a blue state.
Boxer is going to run away with this thing at the end. HP “Carly” Firedina is a right-wing CEO candidate who is out of touch with a blue state like California.
But I don’t think the same is true with the Governor’s race, where Meg Whitman doesn’t have the ideological nor the corporate baggage to be disqualified, and this race will likely go to the wire.
Whitman’s favorable have gone up slightly because she is not on the air to ant degree close to what she was.
She (and Fiorina) have no path to victory. The more they run ads, the less people like them.
I have to laugh when people fear Whitman’s money. If she had the snense to spend exactly double what Brown does, she might be trouble. But she’s already blown that opportunity… an sunk Fiorina at the same time.
As long as Brown and Boxer continue to run the same sort of by the numbers campaign, they win.
The CA primary was on June 8, not a May primary.
The biggest thing I take from this poll is the high negatives associated with both FAILorina and Queen Meg. It seems like that through their campaigning they have established themselves as rich dilettantes rather than serious political leaders. Jerry and Babs didn’t even have to do too much. Still Jerry has to start presenting a positive message of what he wants to do as Governor; he shouldn’t just rely on the shortcomings of his opponent. It isn’t that he needs to spend all his money now but maybe do more public rallies, press events, etc.
I am very much looking forward to the debates; that is what is likely to seal the deal for the better candidates. I just wish there were going to be more debates. Three is not enough, with none of them held farther south than Fresno.
Well, it’s tough to dispute these numbers. Whitman and Carly seem to have run out of gas. If they were going to make their surge, summer would seem to be the time. Since it appears not to be happening in the summer, I don’t see how it would improve in the fall for the two Republican women.
As time goes on, we’ll begin to see fewer and fewer Republicans in deep blue states at the presidential level and fewer Democrats in the deep red states at the presidential level.
from the FAILorina campaign.
Read more: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito…