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Is there a more exciting, yet entirely-irrelevant 2010 political race than the Democratic primary in Florida’s U.S. Senate race?
First off, Florida Democrats must face the music – Republican-turned-Independent Gov. Charlie Crist is going to prevail in this race, and he’ll do so via the support of a great, big chunk of registered Democrats. Why is this the case? Or, better put, why has the Florida Democratic Party become so weak and pathetic in the two years since Barack Obama’s state victory?
Well, it’s all about the candidates, and, in FL-Sen, Democrats are stuck choosing between two politicians who are about as imposing as me.
In one corner, there’s Kendrick Meek, a liberal Congressman who comes from a district so Democratic, he’s never faced a general election challenger. This, of course, is a great characteristic when it comes to reaching out into the swing districts. (Not.) To be fair, Meek is actually a very appealing and talented politician, but even as Charlie Crist was still duking it out in the GOP primary months back, no realistic political pundit thought Meek had a real chance. Now, with centrist, Democrat-friendly Crist running third-party, he’s even more doomed.
Meek’s general election fate was so evident, a millionaire businessman named Jeff Greene figured, “hey, if he sucks so hard in the general, maybe he’ll flop in a primary too!” And, thus, Greene, who is a certified loon, and who no true Democrat (or sane individual) should support, jumped into the race, forced a primary, threw some cash onto the airwaves, and, now, if you believe the polls, he’s actually ahead of Meek.
On one hand, this development is both baffling and disappointing, given Greene is a legit nutjob, and Meek, while hardly a great candidate, has at least done his constituents fair, respectable service in his four terms in Congress. On the flip side, Greene’s entry provides for great, engrossing political fodder, especially from a financial standpoint.
After all, Greene has basically bought himself the lead in this primary, flooding the airwaves as the cash-strapped Meek scrambles to do whatever possible (and cheap) in getting his name out there, all the while trying to salvage some finances for the general election (should he get that far, of course). As Meg Whitman perfectly illustrated in California’s recent gubernatorial primary, money often speaks louder than words in the political arena, especially when your opponent doesn’t have the money to even put his or her words out there.
No surprise, I’d personally vote Meek over Greene in a heartbeat, but, from a purely political calculus, as in “how to defeat Crist and Rubio,” it makes no sense to me why any logical, thinking Democrat would vote Greene. Once Greene’s loony associations with the likes of Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton come to the forefront, I suspect even the most liberal Democrats will suddenly like the idea of Sen. Charlie Crist. Meek, to his credit, should at least perform well among African-Americans and self-described “progressives.” With Greene, such is no guarantee.
My current projections on races with both Meek and Greene…
Republican – 35%
Democrat – 33%
Independent – 32%
Crist – 23%/57%/55% = 45%
Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%
Meek – 0%/36%/13% = 16%
Crist – 23%/73%/61% = 52%
Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%
Greene – 0%/20%/7% = 9%
Great diary and I have to agree with your analysis and prediction for the GE with Meek or Greene as the Dem mom but you made in error in your diary. The FL Dem party has always been weeks and pathetic long before the President was the President.