TN -Election Analysis and Early Race Outlooks

TN-Gov:

Haslam won his race handily, as expected. Wamp and Ramsey split the East Tennessee vote with Haslam, while he went on to win Middle and West Tennessee in an almost clean sweep. Haslam, the moderate, beat two iconic conservatives, indicating that the moderate Baker/Alexander wing of the TN Republican Party is still dominate.

Wamp continued to the demonstrate the character traits and temperament that killed his bid during his concession speech, which is par for the course.

GE Outlook: McWherter appears to be trying to tack to the right of Haslam, but it is doubtful this strategy will work. Haslam appears poised to win big and early over McWherter on election night.

STRONG R PICKUP

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TN-3:

Chuck Fleischmann’s victory over Robin Smith is a wash, neither is overly better than the other in terms of acceptability. For TN Democrats there is some satisfaction that the Smith, the former State Republican Chairwoman, was defeated.

Democratic Primary winner, John Wolfe, is a sacrificial lamb.

GE Outlook: Fleischman will have no trouble dispatching Wolfe.

STRONG R HOLD

TN-4:

The Republican Primary produced Scott DeJarlais, who was favored, in a rather low profile race. Now the question is how big of a challenge can he pose to Democratic incumbent Lincoln Davis.

Lincoln Davis was unopposed.

GE Outlook – It is likely Lincoln Davis will have to work more against the hostile political environment than DeJarlais, but as a conservative Democrat is has positioned himself well by voting in line with is district and building up the advantages of incumbency.

LEAN DEM HOLD

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TN-5:

The Republican Primary saw quite a bit of money spent in what is a fairly safe Democratic seat. David Hall beat out by a small margin Jeff Hartline and CeCe Heil, for the honor of probably being beaten fairly handily by Cooper. There is a bubbling Republican fantasy that this seat could be in play, but on election night the real goal for Hall will be how close he can make the race.

Jim Cooper easily dispatched two no name primary opponents. An early error though made it appear he was only garnering 60%, once the error was fixed he finished the night at 89%.

GE Outlook– Cooper should have no problem winning the general against Hall as long as he actually gets out and works his district. Republican fantasies about this seat being put in play are likely fleeting.

STRONG DEM HOLD

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TN-6:

State Senator Diane Black just barely squeaked out a victory thanks to State Senator Jim Tracy and former Rutherford Co. Republican Party Chairwoman, Lou Ann Zelenik, splitting the vote of Rutherford County- home of the district’s largest city, Mufreesboro. Far right darling Zelenik certianly cost the more moderate Tracy the primary with her very strong showing in what became a 3-way dash to the finish.

Democrats nominated…..Brett Carter…..who I had not heard much about until 3 days before the election. Ben Leming was the name most commonly batted about, and this race was a nail-biter to the finish with “some guy” Henry Barry making this a 3-way dance. One has to wonder if many Democratic voters, in a rather low info election, voted more on alphabetic order than electoral preference in this race.

GE Outlook Congratulations Congresswoman Diane Black. This race is over. The only hope for Democrats was a Leming vs. Zelenik match-up, and even that would have been doubtful.

STRONG R PICKUP

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TN-8:

The most expensive, bloody, and nasty primary in the country ended last night. Washington’s pick – gospel singing, Democratic Primary voting, 3.2 million in subsidies taking, agro-business magnate, Stephen Fincher winnig by a much larger margin than  expected margin- 48.5% to 24.4%. Dr. Ron Kirkland’s complete collapse in the last 10 days appears to have been due to major blow back over his saturation negative mail and television campaigns, which at one point crossed a very touchy line of questioning Fincher’s religious sincerity. Dr. George Flinn, with 24%, came with-in 329 votes of Kirkland, a surprisingly close run for 2nd place from the perceived dark-horse candidate. Republican unity looks far more likely with Fincher winning nearly 50% and Kirkland’s base appearing much smaller than expected.

Democrat Roy Herron struggled to garner 67.7% against a virtual unknown candidate from Memphis named Kimberlee Smith who garnered 32.3%. Smith appears to have raised $0 dollars, but actually won Shelby County, and did well in counties nearer Memphis, and/or with larger African-American populations. Herron too spent virtually nothing on name ID for the primary, so he earned his result.

GE Outlook – Fincher is bloodied, bruised, and exhausted, but won his primary with close to 50% of the vote. No easy feat considering the massive expenditures by Flinn and Kirkland. His campaign coffers will quickly  be replenished and expanded by national contributions directed to him by the NRCC, which will make him extremely formidable now that he has been battle hardened in a primary. Herron has hoarded his cash, and he will need every dime of it for the fall election. He appears to be trying to form a narrative on being a socially and fiscally conservative Democrat who will go to Washington to look out for the voters tax dollars as he does his own, i.e. “his family only buys a new truck every 22 years whether they need one or not”. Herron will likely make a strong stand on defending 2nd Amendment rights while brandishing his conservative values credentials by touting his other occupation besides being a lawyer, being a preacher.

At the end of the day both candidates have weak spots to be hammered, but with a weak legislative record, for a long-term incumbent, and having faced few serious campaigns, Herron will have his work cut out for him in the anti-Democratic environment that dominates much of the 8th.

TOSS-UP/ WEAK LEAN R

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TN-9:

The touted “Bloody on the Muddy” between Congressman Steve Cohen and former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton turned out to be disastrously one-sided against the former mayor. Herenton pulled out the race card early and used it often, while raising little money and making wild statements and predictions. Cohen, on the other hand, worked his district and racked up key endorsements on his way to a crushing 78.7% to 21.3% victory.

Charlotte Bergmann, an African American Republican (yes they do exist), easily won the Republican Primary for the right to be crushed by Cohen in the general election in November.

GE Outlook: – Cohen wins his 3rd term with little effort.

STRONG DEM HOLD