Ranking the Democratic Held House Seats:
Several other members of the SSP community have done these rankings of house seats in terms of vulnerability, and I thought it was about time that I did the same. Since the prospects of democratic pickups isn’t looking all that good for the most part, I’m going to frame the list on the democratic side, ranking in order the seats most likely to flip to team red.
The current setup of the House is 256 democrats, 179 republicans. That means that the republicans need a net of 39 seats to win control of the chamber. I say net of 39 because they are almost certain to drop some seats. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say that the Democrats pick up 5 red seats in November (DE-1, LA-2, IL-10, HI-1, and then one wild card like FL-25, OH-12, AL-5, PA-15, CA-3, etc). That would mean that the republicans would need to score 44 seats to take back control of the chamber. Here are the seats that represent their best odds of getting it done.
Category 1 – Gone (100% chance of Rep takeover)
1.TN-6
2.LA-3
3.AR-2
Category 2 – Probably Gone (70%+ chance of Rep takeover)
4.NY-29
5.IN-8
6.PA-11
7.NH-2
8.AR-1
9.OH-1
10.KS-3
11.MS-1
12.VA-2
13.NY-24
Category 3 – Eeny, meeny, yeah…gone, I think (55-80% chance of Rep takeover)
14.VA-5
15.MD-1
16.TN-8
17.MI-1
18.ND-1
19.OH-15
20.NM-2
21.TX-17
22.IL-11
23.MI-7
24.FL-2
25.TN-4
26.NV-3
27.AL-2
Category 4 – Wow, I don’t know (45-55% chance of Rep takeover)
28.IA-3
29.IL-14
30.NY-19
31.AZ-5
32.PA-7
33.OH-16
34.FL-22
35.WI-7
36.NY-1
37.CA-11
38.FL-24
Category 5 – I think they’re safe…I think (55-80% chance of Dem retention)
39.CO-4
40.FL-8
41.SC-5
42.MO-4
43.SD-1
44.NH-1
————————————————————————————— line of control
45.WV-1
46.ID-1
47.NC-8
48.NY-23
Category 6 – Should be safe, unless doomsday beckons (80+% chance of Dem retention)
49.TX-23
50.IN-9
51.PA-3
52.GA-8
53.OR-5
54.PA-10
55.AZ-8
56.NJ-3
57.WI-8
58.MA-10
59.VA-9
60.NM-1
So that’s my top 60. Obviously, if Team Blue is dropping districts beyond this chart on election night, then it’s time to start drinking. Thoughts? I know many of you have been critical in the sense that I’ve been biased against the Southeast and perhaps not enough against the Midwest, so I’ve tried to be somewhat cognizant of that when compiling these rankings. FWIW, this will become a regular facet of my house rankings beginning next update later this month.
That’s fricking ridiculous. Ridiculous. AR-02, 100% chance its gone? Ridiculous as well.
Category 1 is solid. With the exception of the two New York seats fumbled away, I think Category 2 is pessimistic and most of these races are only about 60% likely GOP. I’d like to see more poling for Nye, Childers, and Kratovil (Perriello too). In category 3, I think MI-01 is a misplace and is safer…so too OH-15, TX-17, MI-7, and AL-2. I suspect PA-07 and OH-16 are worse off than you think, but everything else in categories 4 and 5 we keep.
While AR-1, IN-8, and MS-1 are certainly in serious danger, placing the odds for R pickups in these seats at “70% or greater” is high IMO. The districts and candidates involved in my estimation places these races as “toss-ups” at this point in time, but come November you may be proven right. I am simply stating an opposing view point on the odds you are placing on these races, not necessarily the outcomes.
you’re still a little too attached to MJ Kilroy. Obviously, I think AL-02 and TN-04 is rated way too high. (as I say every time I can get :P)
It’s funny how there’s only 1 PA and OH seat in your Likely Gone/Gone group. I think it will probably be higher (MJ Kilroy & PA-07) if the Republicans make inroads of more than 30. They certainly have a ton of vulnerable Dems from 2006/2008
is not necessarily the end of the world, as there will be surprise losses — along with retentions up to your category 2.
Just curious on your thought if 0 Dems had retired this year. To me that is the gaping hole no one is talking about, especially in the Southeast.
I honestly think PA, OH and NY end up in better shape than the Southeast specifically because the retirements seem concentrated in the Southeast (TN and AR especially).
What is your basis, other than a worthless internal GOP poll, for this race to be any worse than Lean Dem?
Why is NH-1 not listed here? Carol Shea-Porter was recently elected, the district for a long time elected a Republican, she is subpar at fundraising, and Kelly Ayotte is favored in the Senate race. Granted, there is a contentious Republican primary but with the politcal climate favoring the GOP, that probably is not too much of a factor. Frank Guinta due to his tenure as mayor of Manchester would probably be the best candidate for the Republicans.
I agree with what other posters have said about TN-4. Lincoln Davis has been involved in Tennessee politics for a long time and seems to mostly vote his district. His challenger has little money and name recognition. SC-5 is a district that could have been listed higher in place of TN-4. John Spratt has not voted his district this Congress. His challenger is considerably more formidable than the one Davis is facing. Spratt being the Budget Committee Chairman will probably hurt him. He flew on Air Force One with Obama and a picture was taken of them exiting the plane. Davis could be vulnerable if a lot of seats swing to the Republicans. Spratt is vulnerable regardless.
NC-8 should be rated higher. Both Cook and Rothenberg have it rated a tossup (like they do for SC-5 and both have TN-4 as not particularly vulnerable to a partisan switch). Harold Johnson, the Republican nominee, has decent name recognition in the district from his years as a local TV sports anchor. He outraised Congressman Larry Kissell in the last quarter. Kissell is deficient at fundraising, has angered the Democratic base, and is only a freshman. The district has a significant Democratic registration advantage but a lot of its Democrats are conservative and helped Republican Robin Hayes represent the district for a decade.
NY-29 could easily be listed as gone. Tom Reed, the Republican nominee, has been in the race for a long time and has raised a significant amount of campaign funds. He was also mayor of Corning. Matt Zeller, the Democratic nominee, is in his late twenties, has lived outside of the district until recently, and has no political experience and no self funding potential. He also has the misfortune of running as a Democrat in the district that Eric Massa represented before resigning due to salacious charges that were largely substantiated. Zeller is running in a state that Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Andrew Cuomo are sure to carry. However, the coattails they will have in the Southern Tier are questionable.
You have MI-7 in there twice. I think you’re selling Chet Edwards, Lincoln Davis, Allen Boyd, and Bobby Bright short, although it would be nice to see some polls.
I think Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Sandlin are in about the same boat. Pomeroy’s opponent is tougher, but I don’t think he’s that much tougher.
MI-1 isn’t 55-80% gone. Not even close. Maybe 55% Retention, but no way are Repubs favored, especially with the recanvassing ongoing and no clear winner. This is no worse than tossup.
Too pessimistic. At worst, a category 5.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) isn’t on here…
now that the Republicans nominated unpalatable wingnut Tim Walberg I’d say tossup and maybe even Lean D.
and I’m fairly sure the relative wave for Republicans will be pretty regional. About 4% of the 2008 electorate will not be alive in November and those are essentially old style conservative Democrats and old style Republicans.
I’m happy to be an ongoing outlier on New Hampshire. I feel rather certain the seeming Republican resurgence will fizzle against late Democratic GOTV there.
I’ve written off NY-29 to Republicans. But NY-24 I consider simply uncertain. It’s a dismal district, but it is slightly Democratic leaning and
trending. Arcuri was reelected on the generic split in it last time after not making a minimal effort. He simply has to put in a serious effort stumping and spend enough money to get Democratic leaners to turn out. NY1 I don’t believe to be a genuine problem; the population turnover all over Long Island is in favor of Democrats. Downticket the state Senate campaign and GOTV organizing of Regina Calcaterra in the east end seems to be causing a lot of enthusiasm in at least half the district and Brian Foley’s likewise in Brookhaven should help in most of the rest.South Dakota seems to be more Republican than North Dakota, even though their splits look identical. What Pomeroy and Herseth Sandlin have in their favor is relative maturity and stature relative to their opponents. These are small states with small educated elites, so the talent pools on both sides are invariably pretty shallow and voters stick with satisfactory incumbents at the ballot box. Even though they may flirt with ideologues for quite a while.
I’m inclined to list more Southern seats higher. Jim Marshall has an experienced and competent opponent this time and pretty much everything on the ground in southwestern Georgia trending against him. I think he and Boyd next door are at very best going to survive by the skin of their teeth. This election looks me to be the first half of the Great Southern White Conservative Democrat Collapse; whoever survives this November gets mopped up in November ’12.
People here on SSP seem to be splitting into two camps according to how many seats Democrats will lose in the House. I’m tentatively with the 20-25 Loss side which sees a vague but discernible voter rationale in what’s going to happen. This analysis is the 35 Plus Loss view, where voter motivation is much more diffuse and inarticulable and runs across various political lines. It’ll be interesting to see which one better explains the outcome.
MI
NV
GA-8
NBC First Read came out with a combined Blue & Red list of the 64 most vulnerable seats today. There were 55 DEM seats and 9 GOP seats on it, though I should point out that 4 of the first 14 seats were GOP seats. I have the same first four seats going red, TN-6, LA-3, AR-2, and NY-29, and then much of the 2nd tier is there also, the only exceptions in particular being that they have Kanjorski much farther down the list than I do and (surprise!) have Kilroy up much higher. The list diverges a bit at the third tier.
The nine GOP seats on the list in order of flipping (and I totally agree on virtually all of these) were LA-2, DE-1, IL-10, HI-1, CA-3, FL-25, PA-15, WA-8, and AL-5. Here’s their whole findings:
1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon retiring)
2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon running for Senate)
3. LA-2 (R-Cao)
4. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle running for Senate)
5. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder retiring)
6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa retired)
7. NM-2 (D-Teague)
8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus)
9. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth running for Senate)
10. MD-1 (D-Kratovil)
11. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore retiring)
12. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk running for Senate)
13. OH-15 (D-Kilroy)
14. HI-1 (R-Djou)
15. VA-2 (D-Nye)
16. VA-5 (D-Perriello)
17. MS-1 (D-Childers)
18. CO-4 (D-Markey)
19. PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak running for Senate)
20. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski)
21. FL-8 (D-Grayson)
22. NY-24 (D-Arcuri)
23. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak retiring)
24. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter)
25. SD-AL (D-Herseth-Sandlin)
26. NV-3 (D-Titus)
27. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy)
28. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper)
29. FL-24 (D-Kosmas)
30. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes running for Senate)
31. MI-7 (D-Schauer freshman)
32. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner retiring)
33. TX-17 (D-Edwards)
34. AL-2 (D-Bright)
35. CA-3 (R-Lungren)
36. AZ-8 (D-Giffords)
37. OH-16 (D-Boccieri)
38. AR-1 (D-Berry)
39. SC-5 (D-Spratt)
40. WI-7 (D-Open-Obey retiring)
41. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez)
42. NY-19 (D-Hall)
43. FL-2 (D-Boyd)
44. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird retiring)
45. KY-6 (D-Chandler)
46. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart)
47. CA-11 (D-McNerney)
48. IN-9 (D-Hill)
49. IN-2 (D-Donnelly)
50. NC-8 (D-Kissell)
51. IL-11 (D-Halvorson)
52. IL-14 (D-Foster)
53. PA-15 (R-Dent)
54. WA-8 (R-Reichert)
55. WV-1 (D-Open-Mollohan lost in primary)
56. AL-5 (R-Open-Griffith lost in a primary)
57. VA-11 (D-Connolly)
58. IA-3 (D-Boswell)
59. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell)
60. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick)
61. MO-4 (D-Skelton)
62. MI-9 (D-Peters)
63. OH-13 (D-Sutton)
64. NY-20 (D-Murphy)