PPP (pdf) (8/14-16, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 36 (41)
Pat Toomey (R): 45 (41)
Undecided: 20 (18)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
PPP gave us some advance warning yesterday that this would be the time when they switched to a likely voter model (from their earlier hybrid model, which was lightly screened but more like a registered voter model), and that the switchover would be turbulent for some Dems. This race is the one they were primarily talking about: the switch drops Joe Sestak from a tie to a 9-point deficit against Pat Toomey.
One of the most eye-catching numbers here is that PPP finds a voter universe that went by 1 point for John McCain in 2008 (a marked contrast to Barack Obama’s 10-point victory), but they also point out that their last sample in June was also +1 for McCain. Instead, it’s one that has fewer Democrats in it (46 Dem/44 Republican), and one that’s more negatively disposed toward Sestak (28/38, compared with 36/33 for Toomey) and Obama (40/55, with an unusually high falloff in Obama voters who now disapprove of him — that number is usually about 7% nationally, but 15% here in this sample). The one bit of good news here for Dems is that the undecided voters lean Democratic (they went for Obama 52-36), and many of them are likely to gravitate toward Sestak once he’s on the air and garnering more attention. But for now, Sestak has a long way to go to catch back up.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Why are the registration numbers for both major political parties so high in pennsylvania? There are barely any independents.
in almost all states, the “likely voter model” will work to their benefit almost everywhere.
Over at PPP’s blog.
https://www.blogger.com/commen…
A poster named Dustin Ingalls noted that 10% of Dems switched to undecided. Sestak is following this strategy of waiting until September. It might be that because he’s fallen in visibility that 10% drifted away.
I really hope this poll is a kick in the pants for the Sestak campaign. He needs to increase his visibility to get the Dems back. Perhaps he can put in some ads in August as well as do his big September blitz.
That’s what I get from this poll.
Sestak is not up on the air yet. Meanwhile, right wing groups are airing ads attacking him. There’s a high number of undecided in the poll. Sestak has come from behind before, in ’06 and in this year’s primary.
It’s apparent that August is a shitty month for Democrats, going back to at least ’88. It was that way in ’04, at the tail end in ’08, and last year. I don’t know if it’s the heat, but the silly season is a lousy season for Dems.
Since PPP now mirrors what Rasmussen has largely been saying with its LV model for months, this leads me to think this race really has not moved at all in months. Toomey has been ahead among LV by 5 to 10 among likely voters for months now. Nothing that is that shocking on the face of it.
The more concerning numbers for Democrats are Obama’s approval rating and the health care approval rating. 40/55 Obama approval/disapproval and 39/54 HCR approval/disapproval are two things that should cause lots of alarms to go off. If these numbers are accurate, the Democrats have to worry about a lot of other things beside a Senate seat.
Sad I really want Sestak to win but it is probably not his year I suppose. I could see him running for Prez in 2016 if he won as well. If he can just position Toomey as the club for growth crazy he is then it would help. But it is not looking good as Toomey has moved so much to the center. I hope he is not going to use his primary strategy in the general, it worked then but will not work now. You know, I almost wonder if we would have been better with Specter after all. He is a more seasoned campaigner and I think his polls would have gotten better after the base to united behind him and he may have been able to run a better campaign than Sestak do to his experience. Alas what’s done is done. I just hate the thought of a Senator Toomey but he will probably be more moderate in the Senate if he wants to keep his job.
I’d say that’s where part of his problem is right now, to stay competitive you have to have your own party numbers at least in the 70% range.
How Specter would be doing now had there been no primary.
On a side note, I believe Cook Report just moved PA-8 to tossup.