Another month, another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.
Ladies and gentlemen of SSP, the battle for the House took a severe turn for the worse for Team Blue. Team Red has picked up momentum almost everywhere as they have taken a 7-point lead in the generic ballot (their biggest ever) and they have seen a bevy of individual district polls that have been extremely favorable to their cause. Granted, a lot of these polls are internals, but with democrats refusing to release their internal numbers for the most part, I have to assume that their numbers are not to their liking either. Either that, or democrats across the nation are engaging in a big game of rope-a-dope, which I highly doubt.
As a result of the seeming surge for Republicans in the past two weeks, Team Red has picked up a whole bunch of seats since last update, and many other democratic seats have been downgraded. If anything, this update might be an admission that my whole house picture was too optimistic from the start. What I thought would happen, is that democrats’ advantages of incumbency and fundraising would help to blunt the generic ballot and other macro factors in November (a la PA-12 special election in May), but it seems that voter anger has gotten to the point where it might not matter. People are losing their minds, and I think if the Republicans take control of congress, you’re going to see a LOT of buyer’s remorse over this election come 2012., especially if nuts like Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Pat Toomey are elected (yeah, my Senate update later this week will probably be much of the same unfortunately)
Total House Math for August 2nd:
Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans
New House – 225 Democrats, 210 Republicans
National Swing – Republicans +31
Democratic Pickups (4) – DE-1, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1
Republican Pickups (35) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, FL-2, FL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-7, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,
Pickup Changes from last month:
Democrat to Republican – AZ-5, FL-8, IA-3, IL-14, NY-19, PA-7, SC-5, SD-1
Republican to Democrat – none
Late August Race Ratings Changes – (so many that I can’t possibly hope to explain them all, all 26 of them are dem to rep)
1.NM-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
2.NY-13 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
3.NC-11 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
4.IL-17 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
5.NC-7 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem
6.AR-4 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem
7.WA-2 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem
8.OH-13 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
9.OH-18 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
10.PA-3 – Likely Dem to Toss Up
11.PA-4 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem
12.PA-10 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
13.SC-5 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
14.SD-1 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
15.IA-3 – Lean Dem to Lean Rep
16.MO-4 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
17.VA-5 – Toss Up to Lean Rep
18.KS-2 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep
19.TX-32 – Likely Rep to Solid Rep
20.GA-8 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
21.FL-8 – Lean Dem to Toss Up
22.NE-2 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep
23.NM-3 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem
24.OH-12 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep
25.PA-6 – Lean Rep to Likely Rep
26.IL-12 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem
2010 House Big Board (as of June update)
Solid Dem – 157 seats:
AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4
Likely Dem – 31 seats:
Arkansas-4 (Ross)
California-47 (Sanchez)
Colorado-3 (Salazar)
Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)
Connecticut-4 (Himes)
Connecticut-5 (Murphy)
Delaware-1 (Open)
Georgia-2 (Bishop)
Georgia-12 (Barrow)
Illinois-12 (Costello)
Indiana-2 (Donnelly)
Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)
Louisiana-2 (Cao)
Maine-1 (Pingree)
Michigan-9 (Peters)
Minnesota-1 (Walz)
Missouri-3 (Carnahan)
North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)
North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)
New Jersey-12 (Holt)
New Mexico-3 (Lujan)
New York-20 (Murphy)
New York-25 (Maffei)
Ohio-6 (Wilson)
Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)
Rhode Island-1 (Open)
Utah-2 (Matheson)
Virginia-9 (Boucher)
Virginia-11 (Connelly)
Washington-2 (Larsen)
Wisconsin-3 (Kind)
Lean Dem – 25 seats:
Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona-8 (Giffords)
Colorado-4 (Markey)
Hawaii-1 (Djou)
Idaho-1 (Minnick)
Illinois-17 (Hare)
Indiana-9 (Hill)
Kentucky-6 (Chandler)
Massachusetts-10 (Open)
Mississippi-4 (Taylor)
New Jersey-3 (Adler)
New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)
New York-13 (McMahon)
New York-23 (Owens)
North Carolina-8 (Kissell)
North Carolina-11 (Shuler)
Ohio-13 (Sutton)
Ohio-18 (Space)
Oregon-5 (Schrader)
Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)
Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)
Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)
Texas-23 (Rodriguez)
West Virginia-1 (Open)
Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)
Toss Up – 34 seats:
Alabama-2 (Bright)
Arizona-5 (Mitchell)
California-11 (McNerney)
Georgia-8 (Marshall)
Florida-2 (Boyd)
Florida-8 (Grayson)
Florida-22 (Klein)
Florida-24 (Kosmas)
Florida-25 (Open)
Illinois-10 (Open)
Illinois-11 (Halvorson)
Illinois-14 (Foster)
Maryland-1 (Kratovil)
Michigan-1 (Open)
Michigan-7 (Schauer)
Missouri-4 (Skelton)
Nevada-3 (Titus)
New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)
New Mexico-2 (Teague)
New York-1 (Bishop)
New York-19 (Hall)
North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)
Ohio-15 (Kilroy)
Ohio-16 (Boccieri)
Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)
Pennsylvania-7 (Open)
Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)
South Carolina-5 (Spratt)
South Dakota-1 (Herseth)
Tennessee-4 (Davis)
Tennessee-8 (Open)
Texas-17 (Edwards)
Washington-3 (Open)
Wisconsin-7 (Open)
Lean Rep – 17 seats:
Arkansas-1 (Open)
California-3 (Lungren)
California-45 (Bono Mack)
Iowa-3 (Boswell)
Indiana-8 (Open)
Kansas-3 (Open)
Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)
Mississippi-1 (Childers)
New Hampshire-2 (Open)
New York-24 (Arcuri)
New York-29 (Open)
Ohio-1 (Driehaus)
Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)
Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)
Virginia-2 (Nye)
Virginia-5 (Perriello)
Washington-8 (Reichert)
Likely Rep – 14 seats:
Alabama-5 (Open)
Arizona-3 (Open)
Arkansas-2 (Open)
California-44 (Calvert)
Florida-12 (Open)
Indiana-3 (Open)
Kansas-4 (Open)
Michigan-3 (Open)
Missouri-8 (Emerson)
Nebraska-2 (Terry)
Ohio-12 (Tiberi)
Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)
South Carolina-2 (Wilson)
Virginia-1 (Wittman)
Solid Rep – 156 seats:
AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1
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I too was relatively optimistic in the spring. Yes, the generic ballot wasn’t great, but it was stable, with both parties roughly tied. And in March and April not only did Democrats follow through with HCR and financial regulation, but the economy really did look like it was picking up steam. It was easy to imagine by November an unemployment rate slightly down, GDP growth up, consumer confidence up, and about 150,000 jobs being added per month. Those conditions would have pointed to losses, but manageable ones – 20-25 in the House, 2-3 in the Senate.
Unfortunately, with the economy well and truly stalling the past few months, there really isn’t any good news to be had. The numbers – both the generic ballot and Obama’s approval rating – have fallen and it’s not pretty.
The thing is, if you look at it race-by-race it’s still hard to see how Republicans get past 30. But if they really do win the generic ballot by a lot and it’s a wave election, those predictions become somewhat useless. Individual House races are pretty hard to forecast.
We’ll see what happens. Hopefully the generic ballot improves somewhat by November. The public still doesn’t like the Republicans, we have a big fundraising advantage, and there’s some evidence the GOP ballot performance is regionalized. And 40 seats is still a hard climb. So it’s not hopeless. But let’s not kid ourselves: it’s going to be difficult.
I assume from your tag that you are in Cleveland. Is Sutton really in much trouble? Her opponent has money, but that district has been hopeless for Republicans lately.
Also, you have Hall (NY) losing. Has that race been polled?
Sadly, I might take WA-03 out of the tossup category. Right now I’d score it lean Rep. I hope I’m wrong.
Agree with the above commentator – is there any proof John Hall is in trouble? I thought his opponent is weak?
Lean R? That’s a little harsh. Brad Zaun is a weak candidate, and Iowa and I don’t think Bradstad will have coattails.
OTOH, you can clean out some of your Likely R column. Terry, Emerson, Wilston, Wittman, and IN-3. None of those seats are in play any more.
for moving AR-04 (!!), GA-08 (!) and PA-04 (!) to the R column? Didn’t Republicans say Altmire’s seat was no longer attractive? Interesting to know your reasoning.
Other than complaining about AL-02 (hey, did you know Bright just received the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce, and he’s to the right of Roby on immigration?), some of these other rankings have me scratching my head.
GA-08? Sure, Scott has an internal poll out, but Keown in GA-02 also released an internal with similar numbers. That’s the only reason I could see making a change, as nothing else has happened in the districts. Both seats are safe.
Why did you move FL-12 back to Likely R? I thought you were putting it at Leans R after reading some internal.
MS-01? I can understand Childers having a tough battle, but Leans R?
MS-04? Still not understanding that one. Other than the so called “southern wave” what indication is there that Taylor is in any trouble?
TN-04? ID-01? SD-AL? MO-04?
Arizona-5 (More of a Lean D)
California-11 (McNerney’s opponent isn’t that great)
Georgia-8 (Marshall is a good fit for the district and this one is more of second tier race now. Lean to Likely D)
Florida-2 (The GOP had a top-tier challenger in 2004 with Bush at the top of the ticket and Boyd still won decisively. Likely D.)
Illinois-11 (Another more Lean D one)
Missouri-4 (I can see Skelton having a reduced majority, but not losing)
New York-1 (Bishop won this seat in 2002, a terrible year for Democrats and retained it in 2004 while Bush won the district narrowly. Likely D.)
New York-19 (This one is more Likely D or Lean D, as it has gone up higher that on many radars)
Pennsylvania-3 (Her opponent doesn’t have much money. Lean D.)
Pennsylvania-10 (I’d rate it lower as Lean D)
Tennessee-4 (Another good fit for the district who has won in tough years. Likely D.)
Arkansas-1 (This one is a tossup, Chad Causey still has a chance)
Indiana-8 (I would say toss-up, just because Dems have a decent candidate here)
Iowa-3 (Boswell is one who has survived fierce challenges, so I’d put it at Toss-up)
Kansas-3 (Toss-up, while it’s a difficult one for Democrats to hold, Stephene Moore is a top-tier candidate)
Mississippi-1 (Childers is pulling in big endorsements from conservative organizations like the NRA and Right to Life. For this reason, it’s a toss-up. Childers is a good fit for this district).
http://www.pollster.com/polls/…
National polls are unambiguously shifting away from us. It’s been that way for over a month and we haven’t even stopped the bleeding yet. I’m not sure how we’d even do it without some miraculous, last minute economic news. It’s really getting down to the wire. The only saving grace is that Dem money is OK and we seem to have a good ground game in recent years. We’ll really need to hustle.
Stephen’s right to move many races up a notch in competitiveness. If it moves the other way, I’m sure he’ll move some back the other way.
I do similar exercises (not as well as Stephen) and my number of flips has risen drastically in the past month. I’m a little more pessimistic than Stephen, with a net 36 to Republicans and rising by the day right now.
Why is Skelton now in tossup territory after Missouri’s answer to Sharron Angle (Vicky Hartzler) won the Republican primary? His situation is improving, not worsening.
I, like everyone, disagree on a few things here and there but for the most part I agree. The thing about doing ratings diaries is you are always going to anger someone with a rating they do not like. It is a tough job, bravo.
Back in ’94, the wave was not predicted and it came as a shock. Too many Democrats took their places for granted, like Senator Sasser. Now, they really are bracing for it. If all goes well, I think we can buck the CW and hold the House and Senate.
With all the erosion you predict in Democrats’ chances, why do you have Kratovil as a tossup?
You say that on the basis of two internal Republican polls conducted by Victory Enterprises, which has been a consultant to the Zaun campaign from the beginning. Even with Branstad and Grassley ahead, IA-03 is no better than a tossup for Republicans. I would still put money on Boswell holding the seat.
Steve “10 Worst” King (R, IA-05) thinks the GOP will fall 5 seats short of getting a majority.