Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
I jump in it.
326 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Let’s assume that control of the House comes down to a few seats in the wake of this election. Say, five or fewer in either direction. Which would be a better outcome: a narrow Republican or Democratic majority? In either case it’s unlikely that we’ll be able to pass much in the way of substantive legislation. If that’s the case primary difference would be in framing. For example, if Democrats win it would serve as repudiation to the CW that they’re dead in the water. If Republicans win it would force them to make the difficult choices necessary to govern, which in turn could provide a foil for Barack Obama going into 2012. However, it would also mean that Darrell Issa would become chairman of the oversight committee. This could lead to a replay of Whitewater and the other faux scandals that Gingrich-era Republicans ginned up against Clinton.
What do you think, which would be a better outcome for Democrats and lead to better 2012 congressional results?
tell you five months free for deluxe swings state coverage… you jump in it.
Bipartisanship
Who are some candidates or office holders you would cross party lines to vote for? One very big rule in this topic. It can’t be because you dislike the incumbent. So no saying whoever runs against Ben Nelson in 2012 or anything like that. This rule does not apply for Republicans just us because I do not want the blue dog purist thing going on. For me it would be Dick Lugar. See my IN-09 update diary to see my reasoning. Also this sort of fits in this topic. For statewide offices like Treasurer or Auditor, if the incumbent is someone of the opposite party but has not done anything wrong would you still vote against them just because they are a different party even if they are good at the job? I am facing that question this year and will probably just not vote for those offices. Although in my case I am not sure if the they have done a good job or not, I have heard nothing against them. On my personal situation what are my fellow hoosierdems doing?
Anybody have a clue why Rothenberg has this rated at Likely R? Markey is the only incumbent with that designation. I haven’t seen any polling, and no other analyst seems to rate the race that low.
poll numbers on Afghanistan. Nearly 6 out of 10 people oppose the war. I don’t think this will influence the midterms this cycle, but I could see it rear its ugly head in the next few years.
A few bad polls does not a certain Toomey victory make. Tommey has been on my TV for some time now. And while Toomey has decent ads, they are not building any consistent negative narrative about Sestak. Nothing will be remembered past Labor Day.
Sestak’s fundraising is strong. In the last 6.5 weeks since the third quarter began Sestak has raised $625,000 on actblue alone. I remember when everyone counted him out of the primary, but he was the only challenger to decisively defeat an incumbent senator. Sestak has finished strong in every one of his campaigns. As a white, pro-choice, veteran, he is the ideal candidate to hold together the Pennsylvania Democratic coalition.
Good news for Kitzhaber: the Progressive Party, which did manage to achieve ballot access, declined to nominate a candidate for Governor. It looks like they cross-endorsed the Pacific Green nominees, and they didn’t put up anyone for Governor either. This means that the only third-party options for Governor are a Libertarian, Constitution, and potentially an Independent (pending his petitions or whatever).
The National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its Democratic counterpart for the fourth month in a row in July by pulling in $8.5 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $6.2 million, according to fundraising reports filed Friday with the Federal Election Commission.
The NRCC has now outraised the DCCC in five out of seven months this year. But due to the Democratic committee’s strong early fundraising the DCCC still remains well ahead in terms of cash on hand with less than three months to go until the midterm elections.
The DCCC spent $4.2 million in July and ended the month with $35.8 million in the bank. The NRCC had $22.1 million on hand on August 1. Even when compared to both Senate campaign committees the DCCC continues to have the largest cash on hand total by far.
I am so sick of our deadbeat safe House Democrats.
Who has been a big-proponent of Ron Johnson’s campaign against Feingold in Wisconsin, however the ABC Madison affiliate is running a two part profile on him, and, needless to say, his is um, falling apart to put it gently.
Not only are they telling voters that he never actually graduated High School, but even his whole self-made businessman persona is falling apart; he owes his success mainly because he married the daughter of a billionaire. In other states this might not be a big deal, especially in the south, they tend to be very low information voters and don’t care about a candidates pedigree; hell a shitsplat pedigree would make a candidate more appealing to many rednecks I know. But Wisconsin is a state with a very big emphasis on education, and not only that but it is a state that follows politics very closely and has reliably strong turnout. I can’t help but think baggage like this will really hurt Johnson in the Democratic leaning rural areas of western Wisconsin. Nobody has too much sympathy for a high school dropouts who uses a rich father-in-law to get ahead in business.
On top of that, Wisconsin is one of the few states where going around saying stupid stuff like:
“There’s a reason Greenland was called Greenland,” he said. “It was actually green at one point in time. And it’s been, since, it’s a whole lot whiter now.”
and attributing global warming to sun flares, and promoting pure free market economics, is going to gain you votes. Most people there seem to be relatively moderate. Hopefully Feingold can take advantage of all this. It’s a good thing he’s facing a Republican candidate more conservative than he is liberal, and who is perhaps an even worse campaigner. It should be more than enough to help him eke out a win. It’s too bad, but Feingold has simply never been popular and I really don’t think it’s a matter of policy; Herb Kohl is just as stringently liberal, so I believe it’s personality. Feingold comes as too much of a dogmatic, abrasive purist, crusading Madison liberal to many more moderate rural and suburban voters that helped give Obama his big margin in the state.
I should get a facebook or something. I know it is way off topic but it is too late for me to call anyone and I can’t believe what I just did and I have to tell someone. I was at a gas station and I saw a guy walk out with alcohol and go towards his car. He was drunk out of his mind. I wrote down his license number and I went up to him and talked him out of driving. I told him I would call the cops and he would get a DUI and I ended up driving him home. Yeah I did not want to, but better me take him then risk him driving. I know this is not the place but I am so pumped right now, I have never done anything like that in my life. It was rather scary, he could have beat the hell out of me. One thing political about it. He had one of those tead off bumper stickers. Not suggesting anything about my Republican friends, but it was the only political thing about it. What a night.
High-level staffers are apparently heading for the exits and Glassman’s behavior has been raising eyebrows. He’s accused, among other things, of treating campaign staff and volunteers poorly and alleged claimed discomfort over having to sit next to openly gay Tucson City Councilwoman Karen Uhlich.
Bare in mind that many of these allegations are coming from the campaign of investigative journalist/gadfly John Dougherty and his former employer Phoenix New Times (which, while they’ve provided great coverage on the assorted illegalities committed by Arpaio, Thomas et al., has in other instances had the tendency to turn molehills into mountains).
Still, though, for how highly touted Glassman’s candidacy was when he first entered the race, I’ve found his performance rather anemic. He seems to only have a cursory interest in building up a grassroots base and is apparently disinterested in campaigning on a statewide basis as other statewide Democratic candidates do. Until very recently I was living in the Flagstaff area and I think Glassman was up there once for a couple of hours, and that’s the second most Democratic County in the state. Most serious statewide Democratic candidates will make several stops up there (as, say Terry Goddard or (AG Candidate) David Lujan have done).
I don’t know that I necessarily believe all the buzz given the sources. Unfortunately, though, it wouldn’t surprise me.
only has $5 mill in the bank, and has $2 million in debt. Oops…at least the NRSC, RGA, NRCC are doing okay in the fundraising department. But this is another nail in Steele’s coffin.
The Iowa Farm Bureau’s PAC made its endorsements this week. They endorsed almost no Democrats except for a couple of Iowa Senate incumbents and one Iowa House incumbent who doesn’t face a tough challenge.
One of the Iowa Senate Democrats the Farm Bureau endorsed is Rich Olive, a first-termer who won by just 62 votes in 2006, in a district where Republicans have a slight registration advantage. The Republican-leaning Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s PAC endorsed Olive last month. In theory, this is one of the Iowa GOP’s highly-targeted state Senate districts, but I get the impression Olive’s opponent isn’t running a good campaign, and everyone knows it. He certainly isn’t raising much money.
The Republicans don’t have a lot of great pickup opportunities in the Iowa Senate. If Olive holds his seat, I think the worst-case scenario for us is a net loss of three seats, which would leave us with a 29-21 Senate majority.
ABC(not ours, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation) is running live coverage including seat profiles.
Its pretty interesting, newly installed Labor leader v. far-too conservative global warming denying Conservative, except he is the “Liberal”.
I don’t have a question about a certain race, but polling and it’s in regards to the beloved Scotty Rassmussen. We all know what Rasmussen Reports MO is that there a Republican pollster that props up Republcans with higher numbers than they normally would have from other pollsters like say…PPP. But he is known for being one of accurate pollsters in the biz because by the time election day comes around he tweaks his metholody to a GOP egde to down to earth numbers for both candidates. Question is ballpark wise when does he start to tweak his numbers to reality? I ask because there is a time I like to read the afternoon digest this year and look at the polls from Ras and know that there accurate or not. That if a Dem is down by 10 points in a poll he’s really down by down or that’s the GOP edge of his polls talking. It’s a fair question don’t you say?
Wyclef Jean was barred from running for President of Haiti:
They said he didnt meet the residency requirements.
This really interesting article was linked at Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire. I’d really recommend to any of you to read it.
Here are some excerpts:
Since 2003, voters in Larimer County, Colo., have voted not in their precincts, but at one of 32 Vote Centers, according to a 2008 study published in The Journal of Politics. Located “away from residential population centers and closer to where people travel on election day to work, shop or recreate,” the centers service voters from anywhere in the county, providing them with ballots appropriate for their address.
Robert Stein and Greg Vonnahme of Rice University found voter turnout in the county increased significantly after this new system went into effect, and their analysis strongly suggests this is not a coincidence. The Vote Centers “have a positive and substantial effect on individual electoral population,” they write. “Moreover, this effect is substantially greater for infrequent rather than frequent voters.”
In a 2008 paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, three researchers from the Stanford Graduate School of Business analyzed the 2000 general election in Arizona, which included an initiative to raise the state sales tax to support education. In the state’s slightly more than 2,000 precincts, the researchers found that 40 percent of votes were cast in churches, 26 percent in schools, 10 percent in community centers and 4 percent each in apartment complexes and government centers.
The researchers suspected voters who had to walk by classroom doors or rows of lockers to cast their ballot would be more likely to vote for the school-funding measure. The numbers showed their hunch was right: “People who voted at schools were more likely to support raising taxes to fund education (55.0 percent) than people who voted at other polling locations (53.09 percent).”
And by “we,” I mean Dems.
I realize it’s not likely, but it does seem like there are a lot of Dem seats that are on a knife’s edge.
As I see it, ND and AR are gone. DE and IN are likely gone. PA is a tossup, but tilts Republican right now given what a disaster zone PA is for Democrats this year.
So that’s five. I would say that CO, NV, IL, WI, and WA are all tossups that tilt Dem. But if there’s a strong GOP tide, I’d expect 1-2 of them to go Republican.
After that there’s CA, which will be close but where Boxer should win, and CT, which may tighten and could potentially be an upset, but where I doubt McMahon will win.
Of course, Dems have good pickup opportunities in FL (Crist*), where we’re narrowly favored at the moment, and Kentucky. Missouri is an outside shot, but only if the overall political climate improves somewhat.
So I have it as a +4 Republican gain (5 Republican pickups in ND, AR, IN, DE and PA and 1 Republican loss in FL). But Rubio could easily win, especially if Meek consolidates some of the Democratic vote. And Kentucky is, well, Kentucky. So if we could fall short in pickups.
Beyond that, if the GOP is really strong – i.e. 50+ House seats – then it becomes possible for the GOP to sweep CO, NV, IL, WI, and WA. The first three, in particular, are on a knife’s edge, and the last two could end up being quite tight as well. And remember, that even 4 of those might suffice if Lieberman were to switch his caucus vote.
So yes, it’s possible. Likely, no. But I wouldn’t rule it out.
The internals are out from the SUSA poll of the Washington Senate race that has Rossi up 7 and as usual for SUSA there is some oddness. Does anyone really believe Murray and Rossi are tied in the Metro Seattle area?
Although no criminal charges were filed, I still think this is a serious problem for Zaun. When the police are called to someone’s house in the middle of the night, that’s a bad situation.
Ever since the NRCC made Zaun an “on the radar” candidate instead of a “contender” or “young gun,” I’ve assumed they wouldn’t drop serious money in IA-03. It seems even less likely now.
Leonard Boswell went up on the radio this week (a couple of days before the Brad Zaun story in the Register). Boswell’s ad highlights Zaun saying he was against ethanol subsidies, then covers Boswell’s strong record on supporting biofuels.
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what am i supposed to do?
I was coming back from Tahoe today, and every 2 miles or something I would see a Dump Costa/Cardoza/Boxer sign and something about the Central Valley and drought. There are signs for Republican James Vidak along the 5 everywhere. Anyone know more about this race?
is continuing with their rather ridiculous polls of polling the general before the primary. This time its Florida. Tom also says they have some interesting questions coming on a Louisiana poll.
Probably know but I am unsure. I live in Illinois but I am leaving for MN for college, but I want to stay registered to vote in Illinois. Can I do that? Do I just request an absentee ballot?
What do you think about this district? Gabrielle Giffords seems to be taking the Tom Perriello route. She has voted for cap and trade, healthcare, and the stimulus but is regarded as great at constituent service and doesn’t come off as a staunch partisan. Giffords is striking a conservative tone on illegal immigration which is necessary in the district. She is a prolific fundraiser. The political climate might be too much for her. I wonder how much of her getting reelected is based on who wins the primary. Jonathan Paton seems much more electable than Jesse Kelly. How vulnerable do you think she is? http://www.politico.com/news/s…
It’s an interesting article. I didn’t know she won both of her House elections by at least ten percentage points. That seems surprising for a district that has consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate. Pundits seem to think she will run against Jon Kyl for Senate in 2012 if she wins in 2010 and that a race between them would be competitive. Not sure how competitive it would be and I think Obama’s standing in Arizona then should have a big impact on the race. If she doesn’t run, who else might?
Supporters of his various Dem opponents have alleged that his top aide committed MURDER, he stole money from a non-profit to buy a Rolex, have been hitting him for getting in a bar fight in 2007 (that is not an allegation, there is a police report for that), for getting his law license suspended in 2005 for lying about his residency to run for a city council seat, and votes he took voting against restraining orders for women abused, and for voting against banning discrimination. The Louisiana Truth Pac has funded most of these attacks with a website and mailers. The question is: Does it hurt him in the primary and possibly run-off, and if he wins the nomination with a divided Dem party (Dems are behind the attacks, not Republicans), how bad is he injured in a general election? He could catch a break, since his likely run-off opponent would be Juan LaFonta, who has pledged not to attack him. Also, how much money are they putting behind these attacks? Would they have to file FEC independent expenditure reports, or only if they spend a certain amount?
The most votes left to be counted in WA-02 come from counties that Koster won. There are still some Larsen friendly counties to report, but not nearly as many votes in those. Larsen currently leads by 126. Also, even though the Dem vote is a 53% right now, the two other Dem candidates are not endorsing Larsen, with one saying he will not vote for him at all, and the other preparing to run for the seat again, against Koster or Larsen.
Let’s assume that control of the House comes down to a few seats in the wake of this election. Say, five or fewer in either direction. Which would be a better outcome: a narrow Republican or Democratic majority? In either case it’s unlikely that we’ll be able to pass much in the way of substantive legislation. If that’s the case primary difference would be in framing. For example, if Democrats win it would serve as repudiation to the CW that they’re dead in the water. If Republicans win it would force them to make the difficult choices necessary to govern, which in turn could provide a foil for Barack Obama going into 2012. However, it would also mean that Darrell Issa would become chairman of the oversight committee. This could lead to a replay of Whitewater and the other faux scandals that Gingrich-era Republicans ginned up against Clinton.
What do you think, which would be a better outcome for Democrats and lead to better 2012 congressional results?
tell you five months free for deluxe swings state coverage… you jump in it.
Bipartisanship
Who are some candidates or office holders you would cross party lines to vote for? One very big rule in this topic. It can’t be because you dislike the incumbent. So no saying whoever runs against Ben Nelson in 2012 or anything like that. This rule does not apply for Republicans just us because I do not want the blue dog purist thing going on. For me it would be Dick Lugar. See my IN-09 update diary to see my reasoning. Also this sort of fits in this topic. For statewide offices like Treasurer or Auditor, if the incumbent is someone of the opposite party but has not done anything wrong would you still vote against them just because they are a different party even if they are good at the job? I am facing that question this year and will probably just not vote for those offices. Although in my case I am not sure if the they have done a good job or not, I have heard nothing against them. On my personal situation what are my fellow hoosierdems doing?
Anybody have a clue why Rothenberg has this rated at Likely R? Markey is the only incumbent with that designation. I haven’t seen any polling, and no other analyst seems to rate the race that low.
poll numbers on Afghanistan. Nearly 6 out of 10 people oppose the war. I don’t think this will influence the midterms this cycle, but I could see it rear its ugly head in the next few years.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…
blows Alabama and heads to the DC suburbs to make money.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
A few bad polls does not a certain Toomey victory make. Tommey has been on my TV for some time now. And while Toomey has decent ads, they are not building any consistent negative narrative about Sestak. Nothing will be remembered past Labor Day.
Sestak’s fundraising is strong. In the last 6.5 weeks since the third quarter began Sestak has raised $625,000 on actblue alone. I remember when everyone counted him out of the primary, but he was the only challenger to decisively defeat an incumbent senator. Sestak has finished strong in every one of his campaigns. As a white, pro-choice, veteran, he is the ideal candidate to hold together the Pennsylvania Democratic coalition.
Good news for Kitzhaber: the Progressive Party, which did manage to achieve ballot access, declined to nominate a candidate for Governor. It looks like they cross-endorsed the Pacific Green nominees, and they didn’t put up anyone for Governor either. This means that the only third-party options for Governor are a Libertarian, Constitution, and potentially an Independent (pending his petitions or whatever).
http://www.king5.com/news/poli…
CQ Politics:
I am so sick of our deadbeat safe House Democrats.
“GAE [Georgia Association of Educators] endorses Roy Barnes for governor over Nathan Deal. I guess teachers have forgiven him after all.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo…
Who has been a big-proponent of Ron Johnson’s campaign against Feingold in Wisconsin, however the ABC Madison affiliate is running a two part profile on him, and, needless to say, his is um, falling apart to put it gently.
Not only are they telling voters that he never actually graduated High School, but even his whole self-made businessman persona is falling apart; he owes his success mainly because he married the daughter of a billionaire. In other states this might not be a big deal, especially in the south, they tend to be very low information voters and don’t care about a candidates pedigree; hell a shitsplat pedigree would make a candidate more appealing to many rednecks I know. But Wisconsin is a state with a very big emphasis on education, and not only that but it is a state that follows politics very closely and has reliably strong turnout. I can’t help but think baggage like this will really hurt Johnson in the Democratic leaning rural areas of western Wisconsin. Nobody has too much sympathy for a high school dropouts who uses a rich father-in-law to get ahead in business.
On top of that, Wisconsin is one of the few states where going around saying stupid stuff like:
“There’s a reason Greenland was called Greenland,” he said. “It was actually green at one point in time. And it’s been, since, it’s a whole lot whiter now.”
and attributing global warming to sun flares, and promoting pure free market economics, is going to gain you votes. Most people there seem to be relatively moderate. Hopefully Feingold can take advantage of all this. It’s a good thing he’s facing a Republican candidate more conservative than he is liberal, and who is perhaps an even worse campaigner. It should be more than enough to help him eke out a win. It’s too bad, but Feingold has simply never been popular and I really don’t think it’s a matter of policy; Herb Kohl is just as stringently liberal, so I believe it’s personality. Feingold comes as too much of a dogmatic, abrasive purist, crusading Madison liberal to many more moderate rural and suburban voters that helped give Obama his big margin in the state.
I should get a facebook or something. I know it is way off topic but it is too late for me to call anyone and I can’t believe what I just did and I have to tell someone. I was at a gas station and I saw a guy walk out with alcohol and go towards his car. He was drunk out of his mind. I wrote down his license number and I went up to him and talked him out of driving. I told him I would call the cops and he would get a DUI and I ended up driving him home. Yeah I did not want to, but better me take him then risk him driving. I know this is not the place but I am so pumped right now, I have never done anything like that in my life. It was rather scary, he could have beat the hell out of me. One thing political about it. He had one of those tead off bumper stickers. Not suggesting anything about my Republican friends, but it was the only political thing about it. What a night.
High-level staffers are apparently heading for the exits and Glassman’s behavior has been raising eyebrows. He’s accused, among other things, of treating campaign staff and volunteers poorly and alleged claimed discomfort over having to sit next to openly gay Tucson City Councilwoman Karen Uhlich.
Bare in mind that many of these allegations are coming from the campaign of investigative journalist/gadfly John Dougherty and his former employer Phoenix New Times (which, while they’ve provided great coverage on the assorted illegalities committed by Arpaio, Thomas et al., has in other instances had the tendency to turn molehills into mountains).
Still, though, for how highly touted Glassman’s candidacy was when he first entered the race, I’ve found his performance rather anemic. He seems to only have a cursory interest in building up a grassroots base and is apparently disinterested in campaigning on a statewide basis as other statewide Democratic candidates do. Until very recently I was living in the Flagstaff area and I think Glassman was up there once for a couple of hours, and that’s the second most Democratic County in the state. Most serious statewide Democratic candidates will make several stops up there (as, say Terry Goddard or (AG Candidate) David Lujan have done).
I don’t know that I necessarily believe all the buzz given the sources. Unfortunately, though, it wouldn’t surprise me.
only has $5 mill in the bank, and has $2 million in debt. Oops…at least the NRSC, RGA, NRCC are doing okay in the fundraising department. But this is another nail in Steele’s coffin.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Terry Branstad finally went on record opposing the recent federal fiscal aid bill containing tons of money for education and Medicaid. He had been avoiding comment on that for weeks. It took an outsider from Think Progress to get Branstad on the record about this. The Iowa press corps is happy to let Branstad blather on about “one-time federal money” being bad without asking him specifically whether he is for extra help for education and Medicaid.
The Iowa Farm Bureau’s PAC made its endorsements this week. They endorsed almost no Democrats except for a couple of Iowa Senate incumbents and one Iowa House incumbent who doesn’t face a tough challenge.
One of the Iowa Senate Democrats the Farm Bureau endorsed is Rich Olive, a first-termer who won by just 62 votes in 2006, in a district where Republicans have a slight registration advantage. The Republican-leaning Iowa Association of Business and Industry’s PAC endorsed Olive last month. In theory, this is one of the Iowa GOP’s highly-targeted state Senate districts, but I get the impression Olive’s opponent isn’t running a good campaign, and everyone knows it. He certainly isn’t raising much money.
The Republicans don’t have a lot of great pickup opportunities in the Iowa Senate. If Olive holds his seat, I think the worst-case scenario for us is a net loss of three seats, which would leave us with a 29-21 Senate majority.
ABC(not ours, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation) is running live coverage including seat profiles.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abc…
Its pretty interesting, newly installed Labor leader v. far-too conservative global warming denying Conservative, except he is the “Liberal”.
I don’t have a question about a certain race, but polling and it’s in regards to the beloved Scotty Rassmussen. We all know what Rasmussen Reports MO is that there a Republican pollster that props up Republcans with higher numbers than they normally would have from other pollsters like say…PPP. But he is known for being one of accurate pollsters in the biz because by the time election day comes around he tweaks his metholody to a GOP egde to down to earth numbers for both candidates. Question is ballpark wise when does he start to tweak his numbers to reality? I ask because there is a time I like to read the afternoon digest this year and look at the polls from Ras and know that there accurate or not. That if a Dem is down by 10 points in a poll he’s really down by down or that’s the GOP edge of his polls talking. It’s a fair question don’t you say?
Wyclef Jean was barred from running for President of Haiti:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08…
They said he didnt meet the residency requirements.
This really interesting article was linked at Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire. I’d really recommend to any of you to read it.
Here are some excerpts:
And by “we,” I mean Dems.
I realize it’s not likely, but it does seem like there are a lot of Dem seats that are on a knife’s edge.
As I see it, ND and AR are gone. DE and IN are likely gone. PA is a tossup, but tilts Republican right now given what a disaster zone PA is for Democrats this year.
So that’s five. I would say that CO, NV, IL, WI, and WA are all tossups that tilt Dem. But if there’s a strong GOP tide, I’d expect 1-2 of them to go Republican.
After that there’s CA, which will be close but where Boxer should win, and CT, which may tighten and could potentially be an upset, but where I doubt McMahon will win.
Of course, Dems have good pickup opportunities in FL (Crist*), where we’re narrowly favored at the moment, and Kentucky. Missouri is an outside shot, but only if the overall political climate improves somewhat.
So I have it as a +4 Republican gain (5 Republican pickups in ND, AR, IN, DE and PA and 1 Republican loss in FL). But Rubio could easily win, especially if Meek consolidates some of the Democratic vote. And Kentucky is, well, Kentucky. So if we could fall short in pickups.
Beyond that, if the GOP is really strong – i.e. 50+ House seats – then it becomes possible for the GOP to sweep CO, NV, IL, WI, and WA. The first three, in particular, are on a knife’s edge, and the last two could end up being quite tight as well. And remember, that even 4 of those might suffice if Lieberman were to switch his caucus vote.
So yes, it’s possible. Likely, no. But I wouldn’t rule it out.
The internals are out from the SUSA poll of the Washington Senate race that has Rossi up 7 and as usual for SUSA there is some oddness. Does anyone really believe Murray and Rossi are tied in the Metro Seattle area?
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
it yet but hear is Ron Wyden’s new ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Politico picked up Thursday’s Des Moines Register story about Brad Zaun apparently harassing his ex-girlfriend while he was mayor of Urbandale in 2001.
Although no criminal charges were filed, I still think this is a serious problem for Zaun. When the police are called to someone’s house in the middle of the night, that’s a bad situation.
Ever since the NRCC made Zaun an “on the radar” candidate instead of a “contender” or “young gun,” I’ve assumed they wouldn’t drop serious money in IA-03. It seems even less likely now.
Leonard Boswell went up on the radio this week (a couple of days before the Brad Zaun story in the Register). Boswell’s ad highlights Zaun saying he was against ethanol subsidies, then covers Boswell’s strong record on supporting biofuels.
Boswell and Zaun are scheduled to debate once, on October 25.
I’m trying to post a diary and it keeps saying
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what am i supposed to do?
I was coming back from Tahoe today, and every 2 miles or something I would see a Dump Costa/Cardoza/Boxer sign and something about the Central Valley and drought. There are signs for Republican James Vidak along the 5 everywhere. Anyone know more about this race?
is continuing with their rather ridiculous polls of polling the general before the primary. This time its Florida. Tom also says they have some interesting questions coming on a Louisiana poll.
https://www.blogger.com/commen…
Larsen has fallen to just a 126 vote lead over Republican John Koster according to the WA SoS. http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W…
IDK how many more precincts need to be counted here and where they are. The AP appears to have stopped updating its results.
“Committee to Elect Two Steves”
since everyone here is obsessed with Ohio’s Steve’s thought I’d point this out: http://twitter.com/greggiroux/…
Sorry if this was covered earlier, I haven’t been around a lot this week.
IL-10
Seals 43% (D)
Dold 40% (R)
IL-11
Halvorson 32% (D)
Kinzinger 52% (R)
A 20 (!) point lead?
Halvorson also recently fired her campaign manager, so I’m estimating she’s down between 10-15.
IL-14
Foster 37% (D)
Hultgren 44% (R)
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0…
and also tells Politico, “They must pay you a lot to protect Obama.”
Which claim is more delusional?
Probably know but I am unsure. I live in Illinois but I am leaving for MN for college, but I want to stay registered to vote in Illinois. Can I do that? Do I just request an absentee ballot?
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st…
I’m guessing Scott and Meek leads?
What do you think about this district? Gabrielle Giffords seems to be taking the Tom Perriello route. She has voted for cap and trade, healthcare, and the stimulus but is regarded as great at constituent service and doesn’t come off as a staunch partisan. Giffords is striking a conservative tone on illegal immigration which is necessary in the district. She is a prolific fundraiser. The political climate might be too much for her. I wonder how much of her getting reelected is based on who wins the primary. Jonathan Paton seems much more electable than Jesse Kelly. How vulnerable do you think she is? http://www.politico.com/news/s…
It’s an interesting article. I didn’t know she won both of her House elections by at least ten percentage points. That seems surprising for a district that has consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate. Pundits seem to think she will run against Jon Kyl for Senate in 2012 if she wins in 2010 and that a race between them would be competitive. Not sure how competitive it would be and I think Obama’s standing in Arizona then should have a big impact on the race. If she doesn’t run, who else might?
The Hill ran a interesting post on him: http://thehill.com/homenews/ho…
Supporters of his various Dem opponents have alleged that his top aide committed MURDER, he stole money from a non-profit to buy a Rolex, have been hitting him for getting in a bar fight in 2007 (that is not an allegation, there is a police report for that), for getting his law license suspended in 2005 for lying about his residency to run for a city council seat, and votes he took voting against restraining orders for women abused, and for voting against banning discrimination. The Louisiana Truth Pac has funded most of these attacks with a website and mailers. The question is: Does it hurt him in the primary and possibly run-off, and if he wins the nomination with a divided Dem party (Dems are behind the attacks, not Republicans), how bad is he injured in a general election? He could catch a break, since his likely run-off opponent would be Juan LaFonta, who has pledged not to attack him. Also, how much money are they putting behind these attacks? Would they have to file FEC independent expenditure reports, or only if they spend a certain amount?
Here is the site with the attacks: http://therealcedricrichmond.com/
Some (like murder) seem WAY over the top and could backfire, imo. Then again, it is New Orleans.
Scott 47%
McCollum 40%
46% of primary voters like Scott, 38% like McCollum.
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
Meek 51%
Greene 27%
Burkett 5%
Ferre 4%
57% of Democrats approve of Crist, 50% of Meek
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
The most votes left to be counted in WA-02 come from counties that Koster won. There are still some Larsen friendly counties to report, but not nearly as many votes in those. Larsen currently leads by 126. Also, even though the Dem vote is a 53% right now, the two other Dem candidates are not endorsing Larsen, with one saying he will not vote for him at all, and the other preparing to run for the seat again, against Koster or Larsen.