Public Policy Polling (8/27-29, likely voters, 6/26-27 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40 (41)
John Kasich (R): 50 (43)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This does not bode well:
The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland and that is not to the incumbent’s advantage. Only 34% of voters in the state approve of the job he’s doing while 52% disapprove. Republicans are now almost universal in their disapproval of him at 83% while Democrats are a little more divided in their support of his work at 67%. Independents go against him by a 59/26 margin as well.
The biggest change since PPP’s last poll of this race, before they had shifted over to a likely voter model, is that Kasich went from a 73-12 lead among Republicans in June to an 89-5 advantage now. All this while Strickland claims the support of 78% of Democrats and the sample went from voting for Obama by 50-44 to having pulled the lever for McCain by 48-45.
Ted Strickland has run a good campaign, but he can’t make the weather.
This is even worse than the Rasmussen poll today of 47-39 Kasich. I do expect this to come a bit closer as Strickland goes on a ferocious last ditch offensive against Kasich in the final weeks of the campaign.
Hopefully he can get it close enough to where Fisher has a fighting chance against Portman, although I’m starting to lose hope in that race as well.
I had this race as a tossup, but it appears to be slipping away. It is now on the lean Republican column.
was Obama +4 in 2008, McCain +3 in this poll.
a good enough governor. If voters perceived him as good they would be more inclined to vote for him over a flawed Republican candidate. It’s not just the economy; part of political talent lies in giving off an air of competence and doing the right thing, enough so that even when things are great people feel like you’re doing everything possible. Strickland appears to not have that sentiment, based on the overwhelming disaprovals.
If this holds, it raises the question of who wins the Ohio House.
Yeah that will improve the economy. Portman the Bush outsourcer and budget man running up deficits and Kasich the Wall Street bankster.
People get the government they deserve. Ohio will probably vote Republican in 2012 Presidential election as well.
Ohio will never get its economy back… not without massive tariffs, which will never happen, so every governor in the last decade has left with abysmal approval ratings and has been rocked in elections.
This election will be a real test of the Strickland machine, which performed so admirably the last few cycles. If he can get 75% of that performance, he will still be competitive.
Kasich and some 527 ads have dominated the airwaves all summer, although Strickland had a nice ad out back in May.
Is every Dem taking the Sestak strategy this year?
If Ohio votes for the very people that bankrupted their state and cost them all their jobs, then (i) Dems suck at politics, and (ii) Ohio gets what it deserves.
Ohio’s polling has been a bit volatile this year. It wasn’t all that long ago when Strickland was ahead. I’m not ready to write him, or Fisher, off yet. Let’s see what the post-labor day polls say.
And saw Portman: Bush Administration Job Outsourcer, and some how tried to connect that to our recession and job loss today, Fisher would easily win. Same goes for Kasich: Wall street banker, people like him caused the bailout, this race should be over for indies. What the hell is in the water in Ohio?!
These two morons are such horrible fits for Ohio, that fact that they are leading in the polls is sickening too me, but you know what, Ohio will just crash and burn if that happens, so maybe they will learn their lesson.
As with North Carolina, this poll shows Strickland performing better than previous polls.
Last poll had a sample of Obama+6. This sample is Mccain+3. That is 9% shift. Strickland was losing by 2% last time. Making the sample 9% more Mccain-friendly only caused Strickland to lose 8 points.
The Obama voter no-show rate (relative to McCain voter turnout rate) PPP projects is 15%, which is less than NC, PA, WI, DE and about the same as WA.
So while this poll is slightly more favorable for Strickland, it just shows again that the main issue for his reelection comes down to what the actual Obama no-show rate is.
He still does underperform Obama though by 7 points, and Obama only won by 4 points, so he’ll lose even with a 0% Obama no-show rate, unless he changes of at least 2% of the voters between now an election day. 2% is certainly doable, but unlike Elain Marshall who has already taken some net Mccain voters, Strickland is still losing net Obama voters.
It’s been pretty obvious for a while now. I’ve been expecting it to end up a lot like 2002, when 20 governor’s mansions changed parties.