StephenCLE’s House Predictions 2010 – September 2 Update

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 2.  

With Labor Day right around the corner and two months remaining in the journey, this update represents the way things stand at the end of the political silly season, and the beginning of the long haul.  We’ve gotten a bit of conflicting data in the last few weeks.  On one hand, the generic ballot looks better for the Republicans than it ever has, they lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression average.  That would suggest that the GOP would be taking over the House easily.  However, in the past two weeks, we’ve also seen a fair amount of positive polls by house democrats in individual districts.  All along, I’ve said that while the macro environment suggests a GOP landslide, the Dems find great advantage at the micro level, running on local issues.  I would also think that the Democrats’ and the DCCC’s money advantage is going to start becoming a factor very soon as well.  For those reasons, the Democrats are still in control of the House majority, but their margin for error is still thin.  Three races changed hands this month, 2 for the red team, 1 for the blue, mostly a result of individual race characteristics and/or statewide polling trends.   Unlike 2 weeks ago, when all the movement was toward the GOP, the rating moves are a mixed bag this update, with plenty on each side.

Before we get to the ratings though, as promised, drum roll please…the house district map in 256-pixel widescreen color!

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +32

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (37) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – CO-4, PA-3

Republican to Democrat – FL-25

Ratings Changes for period 8/15 thru 9/1:

1.Oregon-1 – Safe D to Likely D – There has been some polling evidence, mostly internal, that David Wu could be somewhat endangered.  I’m not sure I believe it, but in times like these, I’ll defer to the numbers and put this one on the board.

2.Colorado-4 – Lean D to Toss Up – Sadly, I think I may have overreacted a bit on this one.  What I forgot to consider is that even if John Hickenlooper romps to victory in the governor’s race, he’ll probably only win here by a few points, not enough to pull Markey over the finish line and especially not with Ken Buck rolling to victory, as this is his base.  Without any polling evidence to suggest Markey isn’t in danger, this one moves back to pure tossup.  

3.Colorado-7 – Likely D to Lean D – With Ryan Frazier releasing an internal showing this race tied, this race moves down into the lean category.  Frazier seems like a decent get for the GOP, and this district isn’t hugely democratic, so it isn’t out of the question that Perlmutter could go down, though the Republican clusterfuck in the governor’s race doesn’t help.  

4.Missouri-3 – Likely D to Safe D – Several polls recently have Russ Carnahan leading big over his GOP opponent, including a 16-point lead by republican outfit We Ask America.  That’s enough for me to take this one off the board for the time being.

5.California-18 – Safe D to Likely D – With the statewide races in California continuing to be close, the prospect of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina carrying these districts in November has started to surface.  I don’t know if it’s enough to put Cardoza in danger, but it’s enough to put the race on the board.

6.California-20 – Safe D to Likely D – Same deal here for Jim Costa, a republican up-ballot surge in the Central Valley is enough for me to take notice of this seat too.  

7.Arizona-8 – Lean D to Likely D – With unheralded and poor Jesse Kelly taking out the much-stronger Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary, Gabrielle Giffords is looking like a much more sure bet for re-election, especially considering her vast financial resources and campaigning skills.

8.North Carolina-11 – Lean D to Likely D – Heath Shuler has fared very well in polling the last few times out, leading by 10+ points, so this seat shifts leftward into Likely territory.  

9.Texas-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – The republicans really did themselves a favor, nominating a strong, Hispanic candidate in Quico Canseco, who is clearly doing better than expected in the polls.  This is going to be a fight all the way now.

10.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up Dem Retention to Toss Up Rep Pickup – This race digusts me.  Kathy Dahlkemper, for a freshman democrat, is a pretty tough cookie, having taken out a 7-term incumbent in 2008 even though Obama only tied McCain in PA-3.  Her opponent is a joke too, in terms of campaigning and fundraising ability.  Yet because Pennsylvania has suddenly morphed into Alabama in terms of it’s polling data, I have no choice but to move this one into the red column.  Hopefully PA voters regain their sanity before November.

11.Washington-3 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Polling last week brought forward what I thought all along, that Jamie Herrera is an extremely solid candidate for the R’s, and that despite Denny Heck’s monetary advantage, he’s facing a smart, charismatic, young, fresh face in a very bad cycle for his team.  Lean R.

12.Florida-12 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – This is another race where fundraising hasn’t matched up with polling at all.  Lori Edwards has been tied or leading in most polls of FL-12, but I’m still very wary of her poor cash on hand total.  Plus, this is a republican-leaning district.  At some point though, you have to go with polling evidence.  One more lead showing Edwards ahead or tied and this goes to toss up.

13.Illinois-10 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – Several polls now have shown Dan Seals to be leading by 6-10 points over Bob Dold in this open seat contest.  I almost didn’t move this race because of the prospect of humongous republican coattails in Illinois, but at this point, if polling is correct, I think Seals is up enough to survive even a strong downballot tug for Dold.  Lean D.

14.New York-29 – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – I get the general feeling that Team Blue is mailing this one in, seeing as this district will likely be eliminated in redistricting anyhow.

15.Alabama-5 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – Polling last week showed democrat Steven Raby within striking distance.  While I still think this is an unlikely pickup opportunity, democrats will be more energized here than in other parts of the country because of Parker Griffith’s ill-fated party switch.

16.Arizona-3 – With the GOP nominating their worst possible candidate here, he of the last name Quayle, John Hulburd’s chances just got a lot better.  It’s hard to tell what the top of the ballot will be like in Arizona and if it will be strong enough to save Quayle by itself, but we might well have a race here after all.

17.Florida-25 – Toss Up Rep Retention to Toss Up Dem Pickup – This is my boldest change this month, but I don’t think this is going to be a great year for republican asswipes in Florida.  With Rick Scott running atop the ticket and more news coming out about what a jerk David Rivera is, I think Joe Garcia has an excellent chance at winning this seat, enough that if the election were today, I think he’d win.  FL-25 is now colored in blue, making it the 5th dem pickup on my board.

18.Louisiana-3 – Safe Rep to Likely Rep – With the GOP primary heading to an extremely late runoff, maybe there’s a chance that democrat Ravi Sangisetty can get out in front of it and define himself positively and make a run at this before unloading on his opponent right after the runoff.  Unlikely though.

19.Michigan-1 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – A We Ask America survey last week had Benishek way up in this open seat contest, and while I’m skeptical of that survey to some degree, at R+3 in a bad environment, I think this will be a tough hold for the democrats.  Rick Snyder will probably romp here in the governor’s race, which sets up a tough downballot too.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 2 update)

Solid Dem – 156 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 34 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 23 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 33 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 21 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Florida-12 (Open)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1