SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Morning Edition)

  • CT-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS is going to do a fundraiser in Stamford for Dick Blumenthal on Sept. 16th, the same day he was already scheduled to do a DNC event in Greenwich. Sorry to get all emo on you again, but if even Dick Blumenthal needs Obama’s help….
  • DE-Sen: It’s the battle of the sketchy polls! The Tea Party Express is touting a survey which supposedly shows Mike Castle up just 44-38 in the Republican primary over Christine O’Donnell. (Actually, they say Castle is at “43.7%” – too many significant digits is a classic sign of sketchiness.) Meanwhile, the Fix claims that “Internal GOP polling conducted last week showed Castle with a margin of nearly 20 points over O’Donnell.” Anyhow, the TPX has no plans to evacuate in their moment of… well, we’ll see if it’s their moment of triumph… despite a surge of new questions about O’Donnell’s fitness as a candidate. Among other things: Former aides say she never paid promised salaries on her 2008 campaign against Joe Biden, and she just received her degree from Farleigh Dickinson University last week, despite having attended 17 years ago and having repeatedly described herself as a graduate. Come on, baby, hold together!
  • IL-Sen: Amanda Terkel has spotted a trend among Mark Kirk’s public statements: He can’t shut up about the economic crisis in Greece – and Terkel thinks Kirk is attempting to link Alexi Giannoulias (who is of Greek descent) to the meltdown. Perhaps most egregious is Kirk’s statement that while he “wore a U.S. Navy uniform, Alexi Giannoulias wore a basketball uniform in Greece.” Really? That last part is relevant? A pretty ugly example of “othering.”
  • LA-Sen: A little bit of Cajun-flavored cat fud: Gov. Bobby Jindal won’t endorse Sen. David Vitter in his re-election campaign. Jindal claims he doesn’t get involved in federal races, but WDSU has two very recent examples to the contrary. Anyhow, I can’t think of too many sitting governors who haven’t endorsed same-party, same-state senators, can you?
  • NH-Sen: Finally, a survey of the severely under-polled GOP senate primary in New Hampshire – though it’s from Republican pollster Magellan, who likes to do Rasmussen-style one-day samples (a methodology that I think it’s fair to say is not a best practice). Anyhow, here are the results (9/1, likely voters, May in parens):

    • Kelly Ayotte (R): 34 (38)

    Ovide Lamontagne (R) : 21 (9)

    Bill Binnie (R) : 17 (29)

    Jim Bender (R) : 13 (4)

    Other: 4 (4)

    Undecided: 11 (15)

    (MoE: ±3.3%)

  • UT-Sen: The battle for Orrin Hatch’s senate seat – which won’t take place until 2012 – is already getting ugly. Hatch is claiming that freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz (who, you’ll recall, already knocked off one sitting incumbent at a state convention in 2008) promised him he wouldn’t challenge him next cycle. Chaffetz says he only pledged not to run against Sen. Bob Bennett, who of course already lost earlier this year. A Hatch spokesbot took off the gloves in response, saying: “Senator Hatch takes very seriously the principle of keeping his word. Of course, I suppose Jason can break it any time he wants to.”
  • WV-Sen: Robert Byrd’s family is excoriating self-funding Republican John Raese for using a photo of Dem Joe Manchin and President Obama that was taken at Byrd’s memorial service earlier this year in an attack ad. Raese’s campaign manager said, “That’s a stock photo. We had no idea it was from the memorial service.” Well, now you know.
  • AZ-Gov: Does this statement remind you of O.J. Simpson’s ill-fated “hypothetical” book, If I Did It? Because that was the first thing I thought of:

    • “That was an error, if I said that,” Brewer said about beheadings occurring in Arizona.

  • AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick is out with her first ad of the cycle, a pretty dull positive spot about how she donated 5% of her congressional salary… national treasury… opposed bailout… etc., etc. Ordinarily I’d just relegate this to our ad roundup at the bottom of the digest, but I also wanted to point out this great observation from SSP’s own Johnny Longtorso: namely, the fact that the Navajo Nation (the largest Indian tribe in the United States) is holding its presidential election this fall, which may help Kirkpatrick on the turnout front. (Indians vote heavily Dem.) According to Wikipedia, some 130,000 Navajo live within the nation’s boundaries in Arizona (it also includes parts of Utah and New Mexico), almost all of which is contained within the 1st CD.
  • AZ-08: You know how the WWF tried to become the WWE? Well, true hardcore wingnuts aren’t content with (the bad kind of) SSP – they want SSE: Social Security elimination. Given how toxic this is in the real world (i.e., for the 99.999% of people who have never heard of John Galt), it’s no wonder that Republican nominee Jesse Kelly now say he wants to “protect” Social Security. Good luck getting past statements like this one, from just last year: “If you have any ideas on that, I’m all ears. I would love to eliminate the program.”
  • IA-01: This doesn’t seem like a positive sign to me. Bruce Braley is going on the air with an ad (watch it here) hitting back against an outside group’s attack ad – not something a candidate in an apparently “Safe D” race ordinarily feels a need to do. The group, American Future Fund, is accusing Braley of “supporting” the Park51 community center, though Braley has taken the standard “don’t wanna deal with it” approach of calling it a local zoning issue for NYC. On the flipside, I’ll take it as a good sign that Braley doesn’t plan to get Martha Coakley’d. (Though doesn’t it sound like Braley’s “I approve this message” was recorded via cell phone? Does that mean the ad was rushed on to the air?) NWOTSOTB for Braley, though AAF claims it has spent $50K and plans to spend more.
  • IN-03: A common theme rears its head once more: A Republican rails loudly against bailouts, but it turns out he’s been the beneficiary of government largesse himself. In this case, Dem Tom Hayhurst has been attacking GOPer Marlin Stutzman for accepting $180K in agricultural subsidies since 1995. But as the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette reports, just last month Stutzman said: “It’s time to get rid of farm subsidies. The subsidies only manipulate the market.”
  • KS-04: You know, we always love reporting on cat fud for cat fud’s sake. Sometimes it’s just a whiff, but other times, the cat fud can really stink up a race. Case in point: Mike Pompeo, a top competitor for GOP Dickbag of the Year, wasn’t endorsed by any of the candidates he beat in the Republican primary, and even refused to return phone calls from his opponents. Now, the cats are coming home to roost, because one of those opponents, rich guy Wink Hartman, is considering re-entering the race on the Libertarian Party line. (The Lib candidate dropped out of the race for health reasons.) Hartman, who spent almost $1.6 million of his own money on the primary, notably includes among his reasons for wanting to get back in the game the fact that Pompeo “misrepresented Hartman’s pro-life position and residency.” The Libertarians have until Sept. 20th to decide whether to tap Hartman. In any event, this could provide a huge boost to Dem Raj Goyle, who appears to be in a surprisingly good position to stage an upset.
  • LA-03: In an unusual move, the Louisiana state Republican Party has formally endorsed Jeff Landry over Hunt Downer in the runoff. State parties don’t typically take sides in primaries like this, but it sounds like the powers that be are eager to see Downer bail, rather than prolong the race all the way until October 3rd. I personally suspect that Downer has no chance in the second round, and I think he’ll wind up playing Kevin Calvey to Landry’s Jim Lankford. (Check out our OK-05 tag if the analogy isn’t ringing any bells.)
  • NC-11: Heh – looks like Heath Shuler’s suggesting he could run for Speaker of the House, clearly as a way to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi. Shuler also claimed that cats eventually turn into dogs.
  • NH-02: Nice – progressive fave Ann McLane Kuster raised $223K in her pre-primary report (7/1-8/25), totally kicking the asses of all the other major candidates (Katrina Swett (D): $37K, Charlie Bass (R): $57K, Jennifer Horn (R): $39K). As for cash, it goes Kuster: $450K, Swett: $798K, Bass: $312K, Horn: $32K. Even better news: Kuster is touting an internal poll from the Mellman Group showing her with a commanding 47-24 lead over Swett in the primary, which is Sept. 14th.
  • NY-20, NY-23: Rahm Emanuel is headlining a joint fundraiser on Sept. 19th for two upstate Dems: Scott Murphy of the 20th CD and Bill Owens of the 23rd. Murphy has $1.5 million on hand but Owens has only $600K.
  • PA-06: A nasty bit of racial ugliness from the campaign of Jim Gerlach. Said a spokesman about Dem opponent Manan Trivedi: “The only one who has played the race card here is him, by going to Indian-American groups to raise money.”
  • SC-02: The Office of Congressional Ethics is investigating Rep. Joe Wilson’s trips abroad – at least thirty over the last eight years – and his per diem spending habits. Wilson is a prolific traveler on the taxpayer’s dime, ranking 29th among current House members and 39th among 734 members who’ve served since 1994, according to The State. Wilson has tried to downplay prior reports of the probe, claiming it was only about $12 spent on some cheap mementos from Afghanistan, but that’s evidently not the case. Meanwhile, Dem Rob Miller has a new ad out hitting Wilson for his support of CAFTA. Check it out – I think it’s pretty effective.
  • VA-05: In a move that vaguely brings to mind Carl Mumpower, teabagger Jeffrey Clark said he’d withdraw from the race if the party or parties responsible for disseminating information about his financial history came forward to claim responsibility. Dem Tom Perriello’s campaign said it wasn’t them, but Republican Rob Hurt wouldn’t say anything, so Clark says he’s staying in the race. Feel the Mumpower!
  • OH-AG: Wrapping up some odds-and-ends from their recent Ohio poll, PPP find ex-Sen. Mike DeWine leading incumbent Dem AG Richard Cordray 44-40.
  • DCCC: Another day, another triage story. This time, the NYT claims that “party leaders are preparing a brutal triage of their own members in hopes of saving enough seats to keep a slim grip on the majority.” And while they don’t have an actual quote from him, the Times claims Chris Van Hollen “conceded” that Dems “would ultimately cut loose members who had not gained ground.” In response, reports The Hill:

    • Van Hollen released a statement saying that the story “erroneously” said that the DCCC would redirect resources to two dozen viable campaigns if a review in the next two weeks showed that vulnerables weren’t gaining ground.

    I have to wonder: Did the NYT really get Van Hollen wrong here, or is CVH deliberately trying to send mixed messages in order to motivate his troops through fear?

    178 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Morning Edition)”

    2. …to lead the GOP off track:

      I have to wonder: Did the NYT really get Van Hollen wrong here, or is CVH deliberately trying to send mixed messages in order to motivate his troops through fear?

    4. And that right there is why most voters in WV can’t stand Raese; a rich guy whose spent his life railing against unions, pork, etc, and everything else that makes the state work. Thank goodness his candidacy likely drove off Capito, who might have had a shot in this environment.

      And I’ve been telling people Kirkpatrick is in no trouble because AZ-01 is significantly more Dem friendly in off years due to the Navajo elections, (see 2002 and 2006).

      KS-04 is looking very interesting. If Hartman runs as a libertarian I could see Goyle winning, truly a stunning victory in this environment, though he’d definitely have a very tough time in 2012. Though I did tinker with some imaginary Kansas gerrymanders that drew Witchita and Topeka into one, highly urban, moderate-minded swing district that he’d play well in. (And also put KC and Lawrence back together with the more Democratic sections of Johnson County).

      I’ve also been maintaining that despite some people’s pessimism over NH-02, that Charlie Bass is simply running a lackluster campaign. I was talking to a blogger from there yesterday on Dkos and he was telling me how Bass has been practically invisible locally, (but this may just be because he lives in a very Democratic portion of the district), and on top of that he has weak fundraising. If Lamontagne drives the Republican crazies to the polls, don’t be surprised if Horn upsets Bass. Kluster has a good shot at out hustling either of them down the line and winning.

      As far as NH Senate, the deciding moment is coming soon. Lamontagne is headfirst in his late arriving surge, the only question is will he be able to gain enough before primary day to squeak by. If so, tag another gain for Democrats, because even Republicans, sensible ones that is, will tell you that he could never, ever, never, not even in this environment, get elected statewide against a sensible, living, scandal free Democrat.

    5. Lamontagne is rising in the polls and Redstate is getting behind him.  Is Bender a rival for conservative votes that could collapse to Lamontagne’s benefit?  

      Two weeks ago, everyone was looking at Arizona instead of Alaska.  Could the same thing be happening with Delaware-New Hampshire?  

      Ayotte is getting more flak it seems for being insuffiicently conservative.    

      Has the Tea Party Express endorsed in this race? Has DeMint?

    7. NBC/WSJ

      RV

      R 43

      D 43

      LV

      R 49

      D 40

      WP/ABC

      RV

      R 47

      D 45

      LV

      R 53

      D 40

      I’ve now entered dark humor territory. This is the all time best finding surely, yes?

      “58% of American voters believe that Republicans, if they take control of Congress, will have different ideas than former President Bush’s, as compared to 35% who think they will return to Bush’s policies.”

      I don’t know who is more stupid, the “Democrats” too lazy to vote or everybody else!

    9. Here is the link:  http://dccc.org/blog

      In summary, in order of my surprise:

      NY-24:  Arcuri 50, Hanna 37

      SD-AL:  Herseth-Sandlin 50, Noem 41

      VA-05:  Hurt 44, Perriello 42

      NC-08:  Kissell 48, Johnson 36

      AL-02:  Bright 52, Roby 43

      Needless to say, the NY-24 result is a BIG surprise.  They could’ve showed a tie, I think, and sell it credibly as “good” news for Arcuri among the campaign media and junkies.

      I think a poll showing SHS breaking 50 and up 9 in SD-AL is a bigger surprise than a poll showing Perriello at 42 and down 2, although that’s a close call.

      Regarding VA-05, we now have a Republican internal showing Perriello down 49-43, and a Dem internal showing him down 44-42.  I discount the crazy SUSA polls completely in light of these competing internals.  But losing by a single vote is the same as losing by 26 points, and it’s tough for me to see a path to victory for Perriello when he’s in the low 40s in all credible polling.  His only saving grace is:  (1) by all accounts he has great field, just like last time; and (2) nothing else is on the ballot to drive up turnout among conservative-leaning independents or other swing voters who have soured on our side.  So he’s got a chance to manufacture a more favorable turnout model than should normally be expected.  But it’s awful tough to see a win for him, all things considered.

      The Kissell and Bright leads don’t surprise me.  Neither would I be surprised if they both were tied!  But there’s not uniform swing in House races, election results even in a strong wave prove very uneven, and you can’t discount any particular incumbent being up comfortably.

      All the above of course is subject to the caveat that these are Dem internals.

    10. That district is 17% seniors. Looks like Kelly has no idea what the hell he’s doing and is going to get rolled in a Republican year in a district where they should be at least competitive.

    15. Yeah, I guess they’re really trying to push back on the media narrative of doom and gloom for Democrats in November.

      In addition to the 5 DCCC polls they released, here’s some more numbers from the campaigns’ pollsters.  Some we’ve seen discussed in previous threads on SSP, and some polls are older than others.

      AR-01: Rick Crawford (R) 41, Chad Causey (D) 40

      IL-10: Dan Seals (D) 49, Robert Dold (R) 36

      MS-01: Travis Childers (D) 46, Alan Nunnelee (R) 41

      NC-11: Heath Shuler (D) 51, Jeff Miller (R) 34

      NJ-03: John Adler (D) 51, Jon Runyan (R) 34

      OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D) 46, Scott Bruun (R) 35

      PA-04: Jason Altmire (D) 51, Keith Rothfus (R) 24

      VA-09: Rick Boucher (D) 55, Morgan Griffith (R) 32

    16. “I’d urge at least a wee bit of caution in panicking about polling results from mid-August thru Labor Day. Lots of people on vacation.”

      Nate isn’t the type of guy who is going to provide phony morale boosting, so this is somewhat comforting.

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