CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48

Carly Fiorina (R): 44

Undecided: 3

Jerry Brown (D): 46

Meg Whitman (R): 48

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Yesterday’s onslaught of CNN/Time polls has a California component, and it’s a split verdict: Barbara Boxer is squeaking by in the Senate race, while Jerry Brown is behind Meg Whitman by a small margin. While it’s tempting to say “oh, those Senate numbers are pretty good,” as with the other CNN polls, bear in mind that this is a registered voter poll. While it’s not clear how much of an enthusiasm gap we’re looking at in California compared with other states, it’s reasonable to expect that an LV screen would yield results at least a few points worse.

If you’re looking for interesting numbers from the crosstabs, what’s keeping Carly Fiorina in this is how well she’s doing with women: Boxer leads among women only 48-43. (OK, maybe it’s not that amazing, considering that Fiorina is also a woman, which is probably why the NRSC thought she’d be a good matchup in the first place.) What’s keeping Jerry Brown in this, even more counterintuitively, is how well he’s doing with people over 50: he actually leads among oldsters, 49-47, while trailing among the under-50s 48-45. (So maybe that “remember the 70s, when things didn’t suck so much?” advertising scheme makes sense in that context.)

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (8/31-9/1, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)

Carly Fiorina (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 1 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 47 (44)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Then there’s SurveyUSA’s poll from over the weekend; SurveyUSA has given Fiorina the lead in its last three polls and (with the exception of the most recent Rasmussen) is the only pollster to give her a lead. Assuming that these pollsters are polling essentially similar populations (and that’s a pretty big assumption), one might infer that the enthusiasm gap between RVs and LVs is worth about 5-6 points in California.

SurveyUSA has some better news down the ballot, although these two races also seem to have gotten closer than previous polls: Gavin Newsom leads the Lt. Governor race over Abel Maldonado, 44-39, while Proposition 19 (for the legalization and regulation of marijuana) is passing, 47-43.

65 thoughts on “CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race”

  1.  I have been making calls to young voters to get them interested. I am calling all registered Democrats but even so, almost everyone I talked to plans to vote and plans to vote Democratic. A good number of them are not too familiar with the candidates but they plan on voting Democratic so that’s good. I guess Brown has to introduce himself more to the younger voters.

  2. there’s a Meg Whitman net ad as I’m posting right now…

    Jesus Christ. I wonder when Boxer and Fiorina are going on the air. (Karl Rove’s 527 has already been on the air attacking Boxer down in LA.)

  3. Brown, I don’t know.  And frankly don’t care all that much since I do remember the 70s, and that Brown was, in many ways, the original “New” Democrat.

  4. Remember when Esau asked which candidates winning that would be silver linings for us if we lost big elsewhere and which candidates winning would be flies in the ointment if we won big?  I would like to amend my gubernatorial responses.  I had said that Barnes winning GA-Gov would be a silver lining but Deal winning would be a fly in the ointment.  I’m switching those answers to Brown and Whitman, respectively.  

    I want the redistricting trifecta in California.  Obama won way too many Republican-held districts for us not to take advantage, including stacking the deck.

  5. Obviously, most everyone on here wants to see both Boxer and Brown pull through on election night. But if the races split, which would you rather have: CA-Sen, because Boxer is a strong progressive and a fave of so many on here,  or CA-Gov, giving you complete control of Sacramento?

    For me, I think it comes down to whether the fair districts initiative passes or not.

  6.   Today is the Ninth of September, which is the least known holiday on the calendar. Admission Day marks the day in 1850 that California became the 31st state of the Union. If you asked 100 Californians you might find one who is aware of the day (but only if I am one of the hundred, lol). Let’s just say that California nationalism is just a little bit less prevalent than Texas or Alaska nationalism…

     Huzzah for the mighty Bear Flag Republic!

       (and also for Boxer, Brown, Bowen, Chiang, Dave Jones, and all the rest…)

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