Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review-Journal (9/7-9, likely voters, 8/23-25 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 46 (45)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (44)
Other: 1 (2)
None of these: 3 (4)
Undecided: 6 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
There’s very little movement in the Nevada Senate race; most everyone has decided and it’s a game of inches. Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian is in better shape after a U.S. District Court judge dismissed a suit intended to keep Ashjian off the ballot, saying the time for legal challenges was long ago. Of course, with “Other” (not just Ashjian, but also the AIP candidate) polling at 1%, that really doesn’t mater one iota.
Rory Reid (D): 36 (31)
Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (53)
Other: 2 (2)
None of these: 2 (3)
Undecided: 8 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)
Jon Ralston has teased the existence of some other poll that has Reid the Younger within 9 (saying “he’s not dead yet”), which we’ll be on the lookout for. That, plus Ralston-tweeted word of another Reid internal that has him within 7, and the trendlines here, suggest that Reid somehow has gotten some momentum. Is there enough time left to capitalize, though?
NV-03 numbers (trendlines from 8/9-11):
Dina Titus (D-inc): 47 (43)
Joe Heck (R): 43 (42)
Other: 1 (3)
None of these: 2 (4)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±5%)
One other race where there’s some Democratic progress — and where it may actually affect the bottom line — is the 3rd, where Dina Titus moved from a 1-point edge to a 4-point edge, and closer to the 50% mark. It’s pretty easy to diagnose what happened there, though: the AFSCME poured $750K into the district on Titus’s behalf. Now if we could just get them to do that in about 30 or 40 other districts, then we’d be in pretty good shape overall.
If you’re wondering about the state’s downballot offices, they’re all crammed in there too. GOPer Brian Krolicki is poised to return for another turn as Lt. Governor, while the Dems, including sorta-embattled AG Catherine Cortez Masto, are winning the other four races.
will she think about the Senate in 2012? I mean, there’s no way Ensign makes it through the primary (is there?), but it’d still be an open seat; and she’s run statewide before.
Not much of anything looks to change here in Nevada. The NV GOP is in complete disarray, and so is Angle’s campaign. All the GOP insiders here are hoping for is Angle to keep the Senate race close so she doesn’t hurt down ballot too much.
Heck’s campaign has been nonexistent all this year (he let the Chamber of Commerce do the dirty work for him when HCR was up for the final votes), so now he’s trying to play catch-up while Dina Titus and the state Dems are at a furious pace campaigning and organizing and preparing a massive GOTV operation this fall.
And on the Dem side, Rory’s campaign is the weak link. Unlike his dad’s Senate campaign, his field operation is weak and he’s overspent IMHO on the same ol’ “consultants” who’ve done nothing but waste his money. But on the bright side, it’s still better than Sandoval’s lack of any campaign and the tightening is for real. We’ll just have to see if there’s enough time for Rory to fully catch up.
Otherwise, Sandoval’s lack of coattails and the state Dems’ superior field operation probably means there won’t be too much flipping down ballot. While we certainly can’t take anything for granted in such a volatile cycle as this year’s, I’m feeling much more confident about November now than I was six months ago.
voting to make it so that restraining orders issued in other states cannot be enforced in Nevada.
I like that a patrol officer is narrating it.