SSP Daily Digest: 9/13 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is still mum on the prospects of a write-in run, but this looks like a potentially important tea leaf: she isn’t returning to the Beltway as the Senate goes back into session, but is remaining in Alaska attending to… something. Maybe it’s the grieving process, but it’s also shades of how Bob Bennett behaved while he weighed his post-primary recourse. And while this hadn’t looked likely in a week, Libertarian candidate David Haase confirmed he won’t step down to make way for Murkowski on the Libertarian line… so it’s write-in or bust for her.

DE-Sen: With everyone abuzz over last night’s PPP poll giving Christine O’Donnell an improbable lead in the GOP primary, there’s word today of a Mike Castle internal giving him a 7-point lead (it’s buried deep in this Politico article, with no further details). PPP has some further thoughts on their poll, pointing out that in some ways Castle might be in worse shape than Lisa Murkowski going into the primary: his faves among GOP voters were 43/47, compared with Murk’s 48/46, and 55% thought he was too liberal, compared to 47% in Alaska. At any rate, the right wing is still engaged in full court press on O’Donnell’s behalf, though, with Sarah Palin cutting a radio ad for her. And if you’re like me, you were spending a lot of time last night trying to mentally ballpark how big an impact on an O’Donnell win would have on overall odds of retaining the Senate… well, don’t worry, because Nate Silver has already figured it out for you.

ME-Sen: So after Murkowski and Castle, which GOPer is next on the chopping block? Looks like it’s Olympia Snowe, looking ahead to 2012. PPP finds that only 29% of Republicans are committed to backing Snowe in that year’s primary, with 63% saying they’ll back a more conservative alternative. Snowe loses a hypothetical primary matchup with 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chandler Woodcock, 38-33.

NH-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan is out with a last-minute pre-primary look at the GOP Senate field, and they find the closest result yet for late-surging Ovide Lamontagne. It still doesn’t look likely he can pull out the upset unless somehow an extra week or two of stoppage time got added to the election’s clock (based on the rate at which he’s closing), but he’s within 4. The poll puts it at Kelly Ayotte 35, Lamontagne 31, Bill Binnie 14, Jim Bender 10.

CO-Gov: Could the Colorado GOP find itself a “minor party” in 2012, mostly just an embarrassment but also something that affects where they’re positioned on the ballot? That’s what would happen if Dan Maes somehow finds himself gaining less than 10% of the vote in November’s gubernatorial race.

MN-Gov: In a convoluted way, this is likely to help Dem nominee Mark Dayton. The former moderate Republican governor, Arne Carlson, announced that he’s backing the IP nominee, Tom Horner, and will be stumping on his behalf today. That may give some a nice outlet to moderate Republican rank-and-file loath to the too-far-right-for-Minnesota Tom Emmer but who can’t bring themselves to vote DFL.

OR-Gov: Chris Dudley’s attempts to game the system vis-à-vis the clashing tax structures of Washington and Oregon get dicier the more the media look into it, maybe to the extent of actual tax avoision. (It’s a word. Look it up.) Long story short: he moved his primary residence from Oregon to Washington because Washington doesn’t have income tax (he still had to pay tax on his Trail Blazers salary, but not on capital gains and dividends). However, it’s come to light that not only did he not sell his Portland home, but he just kept on using it at least part-time for years after switching his domicile.

TX-Gov (pdf): The Texas Tribune is out with another poll of the Texas gubernatorial race via the University of Texas, and they find that while Rick Perry has a decent lead, he’s far from putting the race away yet. Perry leads Dem Bill White 39-33, with 5 for Libertarian Kathie Glass, and 1 for “Green Party” plant Deb Shafto. Dems are losing all the statewide downballot races as well, although Hank Gilbert’s in striking distance in the Agriculture Commissioner race (down 33-26 to Todd Staples).

LA-02: Despite the warm relations between Barack Obama and GOP Rep. Joe Cao, Obama isn’t going easy on Cao. Obama just gave his endorsement to Dem primary winner Cedric Richmond in a statement last night.

MD-01: Wow, still no love lost between Wayne Gilchrest and the man who teabagged him to death in the 2008 GOP primary before teabagging was fashionable, Andy Harris. Gilchrest jumped into the fray with an endorsement for Harris’s self-funding primary opponent, Rob Fisher.

NY-15: Clinton alert, times 4! Hot on the heels of support from Michael Bloomberg for Charlie Rangel ahead of tomorrow’s primary, Bill Clinton (maybe the 15th’s most famous commercial tenant) just cut a robocall on Rangel’s behalf too. The Big Dog is also making campaign appearances in three different gubernatorial races: stumping with Dan Onorato in Pennsylvania today, Mark Dayton in Minnesota tomorrow, and Rory Reid in Nevada on Wednesday.

DCCC: At SSP, we’re all about The Size Of The Buy, and National Journal has sussed out which of the DCCC’s round of 60 reservations are the biggest ones. There are at least a dozen districts where they’ve reserved $1 million or more: MO-04, NV-03, NH-01, AZ-01, CA-11, AL-02, AZ-05, IN-09, ND-AL, PA-03, and (no surprise here, giving Larry Kissell’s fundraising fail) NC-08. Interestingly, they’re also putting $1.8 million in to FL-25, where they’re on the offensive, a sign of a lot of confidence in Joe Garcia’s chances. (The story also details some investments in big markets where there are multiple races and it’s unclear which races will get the money.)

AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is spending big on a gigantic direct mail binge, hitting 2 million households of members. (They’ll also be making 4 million follow-up phone calls.) The six Senate races involved are NV-Sen, MO-Sen, WI-Sen, IL-Sen, FL-Sen, and PA-Sen; the four gubernatorial races are OR-Gov, OH-Gov, IL-Gov, and MI-Gov. There are also 24 House districts (see the link for more).

SSP TV:

NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s newest ad targets Sharron Angle’s “extreme and dangerous” legislative record, focusing on voting against allowing out-of-state restraining orders to be enforced in Nevada

FL-12: Dennis Ross goes after Dem Lori Edwards, tying her to Obama

FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the who-cares lien stuff and gets on to the juicy stuff regarding Allen West’s statements about Social Security and Medicare

MS-01: Another Travis Childers spot goes negative on Alan Nunnelee, hitting him on the regressive “Fair Tax”

Rasmussen:

CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 46%, Tom Foley (R) 39%

IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 50%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 28%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%

143 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/13 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. He’s doing a poor job of trying to spin it.  Its been on the lead of local news or on the front page of our local papers here for most of the last week.

  2. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n

    Ms. O’Donnell, for her part, already leads in at least one poll  of Delaware. Although her lead in the survey, from Public Policy Polling, was within the poll’s margin of error, it is probably right to consider her a very slight favorite to defeat Mr. Castle based on the sharp upward trajectory in her numbers – a phenomenon that can sometimes be dispositive in primaries, where voters may jump on the bandwagon of a once-obscure candidate who suddenly appears to be viable.

  3. still gets me to a 31-seat swing to the Republicans.

    D to R FLIPS: AZ-05, AR-01, AR-02, CO-03, CO-04, FL-02, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, NH-02, NY-29, ND-AL, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, WI-07, WI-08

    R to D FLIPS: DE-AL, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02

    CLOSE DEM HOLDS: AZ-01, CA-11, FL-08, GA-08, IN-09, IA-03, NV-03, NH-01, NM-02, NY-19, NY-24, NC-08, OH-18, SC-05, SD-AL, WV-01

  4. That seems like an incredibly stupid use of resources given Bright’s voting record and vulnerability.  Certainly there have to be other districts that are much better use of scarce monetary resources than AL-2.

    All the other districts they’ve picked make sense for the most part, but that one is a head-scratcher.

  5. Here’s the ad:

    http://thepage.time.com/2010/0

    My quibble:  I don’t like no narration, with just audio clips pieced together.  Yes it tells a story, but make it easy for the viewer, just tell it explicitly.  Just a couple narrated lines, one at open and one at close, would have done the trick.

  6. Here are some great articles about Emmer having problems getting the usual endorsees and background help for his campaign.

    This one is an excellent article about Emmer’s long-standing problems within the House GOP caucus.  Many are not enthused about his election and the Override 6 thing they mention was very fun to watch.

    Yesterday the Strib ran a story about the usual cast and crew of business groups that support Republicans being leery of Emmer.  It seems there is a divide between the Fortune 1000’s and small-businesses as they are less likely to get hit by Dayton’s tax increases and more likely to get hit with cuts to local-government aid.

  7. Looks like Jan Brewer isn’t the only GOP gubernatorial candidate that doesn’t want to debate.  Rick Snyder wanted to control all aspects of the debates.  When he didn’t get his way, he ended debate negotiations.

    “We put a proposal out there that would have worked for everyone and they didn’t take it,” Snyder said. “That just shows this bickering and sound byte type of attitude.

    Some of the terms that Bernero claims Snyder wanted that he was unhappy with included no streaming web video of any debates and holding a Detroit debate at noon instead of the evening when more people are home.

    http://www.mlive.com/politics/

    Seriously?  Snyder wants to debate in Michigan’s largest market at noon on a weekday?  I can see why Bernero didn’t want to just accept these debates terms.  

    Bernero is pushing hard for debates and even showed up to one of Snyder’s events today.

    Democratic gubernatorial candidate Virg Bernero came to Republican rival Rick Snyder’s town hall meeting this afternoon in Westland, hoping to coax him into at least three televised debates.

    Instead, Snyder invited him to debate right there before about 150 people. Bernero brought a letter urging Snyder to meet with him personally over coffee to hammer out a gentlemen’s agreement on debates, which Snyder earlier in the day said wouldn’t happen because of disputes over debate format

    http://www.freep.com/article/2

    I guess Snyder isn’t such a tough nerd after all.  

  8. The polls don’t come out until Wednesday so we have to wait until then, but apparantly there is a 26-point swing towards Coons if O’Donnell is his opponent rather than Castle. And Ayotte is no more electable than Lamontagne which is either a. Horrible news for the Republicans across the board or b. Probably wrong because I see no way that Ovide beats Hodes. I will be shocked if the poll shows both Republicans well ahead for the general.

  9. http://hotlineoncall.nationalj

    DCCC drawing down in Phoenix and Chicago. I’m not sure I completely buy the confidence. And unfortunately it certainly means Representative Ben Quayle.

    OTOH, they clearly signaling that Pomeroy is being left for dead. “Left with staffers” is like when the doctor tells you that you can eat anything you want.

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