Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 49
Rick Scott (R): 42
Undecided: 3Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Marco Rubio (R): 36
Charlie Crist (I): 34
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±3.5%)
We’re clearing the decks with a couple Florida polls from late last week, including the Sunshine State portion of those CNN polls that seemed to have mostly good news for Dems, although that may have been largely by virtue of their use of a registered-voter model. Here, they find Alex Sink with a pretty convincing lead over Rick Scott. Sink has to be helped on an ongoing basis by Bill McCollum, who keeps popping up every few days just to say “Nope, still not endorsing,” thumb his nose at Rick Scott, and retreat to his sulking place again.
In the Senate race, it’s been pretty clear ever since Kendrick Meek’s convincing victory over Jeff Greene in the Dem primary that things were going to get rockier for Charlie Crist. The CW seemed to shift almost immediately from “OMG, he’s actually threading the needle” to “uh oh, he’s gonna lose.” This poll’s a case in point: Crist isn’t going to win with Meek polling in the 20s, as Meek’s pulling away too many of the Dems that Crist needs to pull off his feat. Nevertheless, Crist is still forging ahead, out with two new ads, looking resplendently tan on the beach and saying he’s drawing a “line in the sand” (presumably with regard to his independence).
Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (9/2-7, likely voters, no trendlines, gubernatorial numbers here):
Alex Sink (D): 44
Rick Scott (R): 42
Undecided: 16Kendrick Meek (D): 23
Marco Rubio (R): 43
Charlie Crist (I): 29
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3.1%)
In case you were wondering what these races look like with the switch to a likely voter model, we’ve got that too, thanks to Pennsylvania-based Republican pollster Susquehanna, here operating on behalf of local GOP-flavored online news outlet Sunshine State News. The shift in the FL-Gov race seems pretty plausible, with Sink up by 2 on the free-spending Scott in a sample that breaks 45 self-identified GOP and 41 Dem. (That’s thanks to a decent lead among indies, 47-36… how rare is that, among Dem gubernatorial candidates this year.) But it looks a little ambitious in the Senate race, where this seems to be the biggest lead Rubio’s had since Crist pulled his party switch (although certainly reflective of the recent trend).
any poll of registered voters is bullshit
If I had to choose between Sink winning or Rubio losing, I’d take a Sink win any day. Rubio holds a single Senate seat for 6 years, maybe longer if he doesn’t vote quite as conservatively as he’s running. A Sink victory means a half-dozen (or more) House seats for a decade.
Btw, I finally got around to donating to Scott McAdams today. We’re almost there, SSPers, and David, James, Crisitunity, the whole crew works so hard for you, won’t you support their one big endorsement this cycle? ….Maybe think of it this way: how much will it screw with Sarah Palin’s head if her chosen candidate manages to win the primary then lose the general in her very red home state?
this doesnt seem to be entirely a shift from Crist to Meek. There’s some Crist –> Rubio here, or Rubio surge.
Also, note the low number of undecideds in the Susq poll. Closing minds or pushing leaners?
Kendrick Meek gets to play spoiler. Oh well, I guess the fringe would prefer Senator Rubio over Senator Crist.
It’s unfortunate that the Florida Democrats could not get a somewhat credible candidate to run this cycle.
Is Rubio really ahead by 14%? I’m not believing it.
CNN’s poll isn’t perfect with the registered voter model, but it still seems to make more sense. And besides, who really knows what turnout will look like in November? The supposed “likely voter models” being used by some pollsters may not actually work out like that once the election actually starts happening.
I don’t believe that Meek will stay above 20 unless he’s able to show that he has a realistic chance of winning. If Meek doesn’t start getting within 10 points of Rubio soon, I suspect that he’ll start bleeding some support (though I doubt he ever really gets below 17%-18% either).
could work out a gentlemen’s deal and double team Rubio, but I think Crist’s level of influence would invariably benefit him and he doesn’t seem like much more than an opportunistic politician.
Meek’s got a chance if he can keep peeling off Crist Democrats. Crist probably made a mistake in veering too far left, making it pretty transparent that he only cares about winning – he’ll have to make up ground with moderate Republicans/right-leaning independents somehow.
and even must win if nothing spectacular happens. Republicans fucked thinghs up by nominating Scott. Meek, as obviously. can’t win, but he can give victory to Rubio on a plate… Christ can beat Rubio if Democrats abandon Meek, but that’s unlikely scenario
the CNN poll of registered voters is correct, and nobody seems to have raised any red flags yet about its findings when it comes to registered voters….
I’m just spitballing here, but given how the enthusiasm gap seems to strongly favor Republicans this cycle, if Meek is getting 24% of registered voters in Florida, I’m assuming that’s coming from mostly Democrats, mixed with a few Independents here and there. If Democrats are really that unenthusiastic about voting, then when switching over to likely voters, does it make any sense that Meek’s numbers would stay the same? You think there would be enough “unlikely” Democratic voters to depress Meek’s numbers a bit.
So the Susquehanna and CNN polls don’t seem to be very compatible when it comes to their Senate numbers, even with different voter models. At least one of them is off.
… I realize that voter preferences don’t always line up entirely logically, but do people really think that Rick Scott is going to outpoll Rubio? Even if Scott loses, so long as he’s solidly in the 40s – and I expect he will be, with Chiles out of the race – it’s pretty hard to imagine Rubio doing worse than that. How many Scott/Crist or Scott/Meek voters do you think there really are?
a last-minute endorsement of Crist from Meek who drops out, or something like that.
Sink is clearly ahead head now and will likely stay there as long as Scott focuses on the president. Dum, dumb move.