StephenCLE’s House Ratings – September 14 update

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 14

Two weeks ago, I spoke of what I thought was going to be a disconnect between a vastly republican macro-environment and a democratic local environmental advantage.  I think we’re starting to see that in many districts across the country.  The republicans still lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression, suggesting that a huge red wave is still possible.  However, Team Red has received some rather troubling data in many individual districts in the past week or so.  Part of that is because the DCCC is starting to churn out internal polls to contest the huge number of republican polling we’ve seen, but the independent polling has been generally good for Team Blue this week too.  

Another strange trend I’ve noticed in the last two weeks is that, in districts in the likely and safe category, democrats took a beating, and many ratings moved rightward as a result.  But at the margins, in the toss up seats, most democratic candidates improved their position.  Thus, the likely and lean categories on the dem side got bigger this week even as the tossup category became more favorable.  

As a result, many seats moved from one direction to the other this week, but the majority went from red to blue.  I now project that the democrats will drop just 29 seats, the first time the overall number has been below 30 since early July.

As a procedural note, there are now enough districts changing each week that I think I’ll be doing this every week now between now and the election.  I’ll try to keep the updates on Tuesday each week, except for the last one, which will be the night before the election.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +29

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (34) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – FL-24, PA-10

Republican to Democrat – AL-2, IA-3, NM-2, SD-1, TN-4

2010 Current House Map:

Ratings changes for period September 2-13

1.Iowa-1 – Solid D to Likely D – Polling earlier in the week showed Bruce Braley in a tighter race than I had anticipated.  I was thinking about moving this race last update, but it’s definitely on the board now.

2.Iowa-2 – Solid D to Likely D – This race is a bit more surprising to me as Dave Loebsack is in a more democratic district against a weak opponent, yet polling showed him only up by 8 last week (granted, that was a republican firm’s poll).  Still, it’s enough to put this race onto the board as well.  

3.Massachusetts-5 – Solid D to Likely D – I wonder about this district a bit.  With the governor’s race sure to be close in MA, if there are any sitting congresscritters likely to be in danger, it’s probably Niki Tsongas, who’s never really been prolific in running up win margins.  This is more of a national/state mood move than anything else since we haven’t seen any polling.

4.Maine-2 – Solid D to Likely D – Michael Michaud is a very strong incumbent, but a PPP poll from last week has him up just 9 on his republican challenger.  That’s definitely enough to put the race into the rear view mirror a bit.  I don’t really think he’s overly endangered given the NRCC’s financial situation and his weak opponent, but if the wave is big, you never know.

5.Connecticut-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This is the least democratic district in Connecticut, and republican Sam Caliguri released an internal showing him within 1 of incumbent democrat Murphy.  The poll was a bit stale, but I’ve always thought that this one would be a fight just because of the PVI.  It moves to Lean.

6.Michigan-9 – Likely D to Lean D – With the democratic brand looking as if it looks less appetizing than a sick puppy in Michigan right now, I move this district to lean.  Rick Snyder is almost certain to romp here in the governor’s race, which has me nervous that Peters could get swept under.  We haven’t seen much polling here, so I’ll be on the lookout for one.

7.Washington-2 – Likely D to Toss Up – I’m a bit late to the party on this one, as polling has twice shown that this is a low single digit contest.  Maybe I was overrating just how strong an incumbent Rick Larsen is, but it’s clear that he’s in a tough fight right now.  The senate race is likely to be very close here.

8.Pennsylvania-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Polling for the DCCC shows Jason Altmire way ahead of his republican opponent, and perhaps I should have seen this coming seeing as how the strongest candidate for the GOP, Mary Beth Buchanan, lost badly in the primary.  There seems to be better opportunities for Team Red in the Keystone State.

9.Pennsylvania-8 – Lean D to Toss Up – Murphy vs Fitzpatrick is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the house battle this November.  It’s a case of strong incumbent vs strong challenger in a fairly swingish district.  Grab the popcorn as this one is going to be good.

10.Illinois-11 – Toss Up to Lean R – It’s really gone from bad to worse in a hurry for Debbie Halvorson, who is facing the specter of huge republican coattails in Illinois and an opponent that has been unrelenting.  Adam Kinzinger is looking pretty good at the moment according to most polling data.  

11.South Dakota-1 – Toss Up to Lean D – This race began to turn a bit when news rolled out about Kristi Noem’s horrifically bad driving record.  Herseth-Sandlin, who had been struggling with messaging earlier in the campaign, seems to have been given a gift and now even Rasmussen is showing her ahead, while independent polling has her up by 9.  

12.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up to Lean D – Scott DeJarlais just released an internal poll showing him trailing Lincoln Davis by 4.  I’m curious as to why he would release a poll like that unless he truly was behind, which is why I (rather begrudgingly) move this race to lean.  I still feel that any path to taking the House by Team Red requires this district to flip though.

13.Iowa-3 – Lean R to Toss Up – This race seemed like it was going the wrong way for Team Blue, until some unsightly transgressions in Brad Zaun’s past came to light about two weeks ago.  Since then, polling has been more positive for Leonard Boswell, including a republican firm putting him up by 9 last week.  That poll seems improbable to me, but there’s no doubt that the momentum here has swung.

14.New York-24 – Lean R to Toss Up – Well color me surprised.  This was a race that I thought was virtually gone thanks to Arcuri’s flip-flop on HCR, but maybe that move was actually a good one, as Arcuri surged with independents in the most recent poll of NY-24, which showed him ahead by upper single digits.  I’m still somewhat skeptical given Arcuri’s campaigning skills, but he’s looking better.

15.Florida-12 – Lean R to Toss Up – This is probably the most unlikely toss up race in the nation, a republican leaning seat in Central Florida in which the democratic candidate, Lori Edwards, has been an awful fundraiser.  That being said, Edwards has led in the only two polls I’ve seen here, both democratic internals, and republican candidate Dennis Ross has run a horrible campaign so far.  This could be the upset of the cycle if Edwards is able to pull it off, right now her chances are better than the pundits think.

16.Mississippi-1 – Lean R to Toss Up – A DCCC poll last week put Travis Childers up 4 against republican challenger Alan Nunnelee, which was enough to put this low-information contest into the toss-up column for the time being.  I still don’t feel good about this race, and am looking for independent corroboration of the DCCC poll before moving it out of the red column.

17.Washington-8 – Lean R to Likely R – It appears that Dave Reichert is in better standing for re-election then I thought, as polling last week put him up 13 on challenger Susan Delbene.  This race should probably tighten a bit thanks to Delbene’s huge amount of money, but I don’t like our chances much here now that the senate race looks close.  Delbene’s only path to victory probably involved a Murray rout.

18.Kansas-4 – Likely R to Lean R – Now here’s another unlikely pickup opportunity.  Democrat Raj Goyle has done virtually everything right so far in terms of messaging and fundraising, while Republican Mike Pompeo has been left out in the cold by virtually everybody on the GOP side.  Polling had Goyle trailing by just 3 last week, and while it’s tough to imagine him winning in a year like this, to call this a Safe R race (coughCharlieCookcough) is just plain wrong.

2010 House Big Board (as of September 14 update)

Solid Dem – 151 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 36 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 25 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 36 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1