Time for a little pre-game chatter, with polls closing in less than two hours in New Hampshire. Can Christine O’Donnell pull out the upset over Mike Castle in Delaware, or will the local GOP electorate get a last-minute blast of pragmatism? Can Ovide Lamontagne’s fast close carry him past Kelly Ayotte, or will he fall just short? Can Carl Paladino complete the teabagger trifecta in New York? Will Adrian Fenty, Charlie Rangel, Carolyn Maloney, Stephen Lynch, or even Donna Edwards find themselves on the incumbent scrap heap? Let us know in the comments!
(And in case you need a scorecard, check out our handy primary elections preview.)
with primaries, but let me give some boring predictions only because I hope to establish some more credibility by being right.
In Delaware, I think we’ll see a back and forth race all night, but Mrs. O’Donnell pulls it out with a 51-49 victory.
Same in New Hampshire; it’ll be a close race all night, but Bender underperforms and conservatives unite behind Lamontagne.
Ovide 39%
Kelly 35%
Binnie 19%
Bender 7%
In NH-02 I think a Jennifer Horn victory is too much to wish for, but it’ll be closer than expected because she has a long-standing relationship with far-right elements here and is well known, while Bass is a has been running a languid campaign.
Bass 55%
Horn 45%
Kuster has all the moment and has out-hustled Swett, 59-41 for the fresh face and a good shot at holding the seat.
In NH-01 I won’t venture to throw out numbers, but I’m just going to say I have a suspicion Guinta will win and give Shea-Porter a great chance to survive for an improbable third term.
NY-01, again numbers are shaky to propose here, in general I expect to see Altschuler will win with around 40-45% of the vote.
Lazio will win 56-44. Gillibrand’s not worth predicting, neither are any of the Democratic primaries.
Hoffman loses, narrowly, 53-47, and Grimm loses 55-45, throwing away what chance Republicans have of making NY-13 moderately competitive.
MA-10: O’Leary wins, 54-46
MD-01: Harris wins 52-48, Kratovil in great shape.
Hopefully Scheidermann wins the NY-AG, narrowly, but does so with NYC votes, 38-31 for Rice, and scattered votes for minor candidates. Will enter into a real general election campaign against Dan Donovan, the strongest GOPer running this year, (thankfully for AG, he probably could have beaten McMahon, who know survives to get the district made significantly more Democratic by expanding and moving over the Brooklyn areas into more Democratic territory, I’ve made it 53% Obama quite easily).
Ciciline wins with 41% of the vote.
WI-08 Terri McCormack wins, and moves this race back to leans Dem.
Nothing else worth predicting.
Castle 54
O’Dummy 46
Ayotte 39
Ovide 36
Paladino 46
Lazio 43
The GOP goes batshit in Delaware:
O’Donnell: 51
Castle: 49
The GOP remains sane in NH:
Ayotte: 37
Lamontagne: 33
Binnie: 21
Others: 9
NY GOP remains sane, but it doesn’t matter:
Lazio: 55
Paladino: 45
DC Mayor: I know very little about this race, but I hope Fenty pulls it off:
Fenty: 52
Gray: 48
MA 09: Lynch easily wins (unfortunately):
Lynch: 63
D’Allesandro: 37
MD Gov:
Ehlrich: 62
Murphy: 38
NY 14:
Maloney: 68
Saujani: 32
NY 15:
Rangel: 74
Others: 26
RI 1:
Cicciline: 39
Lynch: 26
Segal: 20
Gemma: 15
But I think:
O’Donnell 51%
Castle 49%
Ayotte 39%
Ovide 37%
Others 34%
It is within 2 pts in both DE and NH, so either major candidate in both races could end up on top. I’ll say Castle and Ayotte, but it could easily be the other.
Paladino over Lazio 53-47, based on his late surge I am confident he will win.
O’Donnell 51%
Castle 49%
DE-Sen
O’Donnell- 51%
Castle- 49%
NH-Gov
Ovide-37%
Ayotte-34%
Binnie-22%
Bender-7%
NY-Gov
Paladino wins the chance to get his ass kicked by Coumo
MA-09
Lynch-70%
Mac- 30%
NY-14
Maloney-90%
what’s-her-face – 10%
And my home district
Barney Frank-99%
Dining room table- 1%
DE-Sen
O’Donnell 53
Castle 47
Learn from this one, fellas.
MA-09
Lynch 59
D’Allessandro 41
Lynch is very popular, but low turnout could kill him
MA-10
Malone 51
Perry 45
Others 4
O’Leary 56
Keating 44
MA-Auditor: Glodis wins, many pull hair out.
NH-Sen
Ayotte 40
Lamontagne 36
Bender 13
Binnie 11
Too little, too late for Lamontagne. Full Tea Party support would have put him over the top.
NH-01
Guinta 31
Mahoney 28
Ashooh 18
Bestani 15
Others 8
CSP gets the opponent she wants.
NH-02
Bass 55
Horn 30
Others 15
Kuster 58
Swett 42
Likewise, Bass gets the opponent he wants.
NY-R: Malpass, Berntsen, and Paladino earn the right to get slaughtered.
NY-01
Altschuler 40
Cox 35
Demos 25
NY-14
Maloney 64
Saujani 36
Should be a fun night!
I have never been good at these, but a did predict that Alaska Senate was going to be close last time (albeit with Murkowski nearly winning). Anyway…
DE
O’Donnell- 53
Castle- 47
DC- I’ll go against the odds
Fenty-42
Gray- 39
have never been good at these, but a did predict that Alaska Senate was going to be close last time (albeit with Murkowski nearly winning). Anyway…
DE
O’Donnell- 53
Castle- 47
DC- I’ll go against the odds
Fenty-42
Gray- 39
Others- 19
MA-09 I wish there would be an upset here but..
Lynch- 56
D’Alessandro- 44
MD Gov
Ehrlich- 73
Others- 27
NH
Ayotte- 37
Lamontagne- 35
Binnie- 15
Bender Bending Rodriguez (anyone get the pun?)- 13
Meh, I’m getting bored and NY and WI are not exciting.
Castle 55
Crypto-Homophobic Frothing Misappropriation Monkey 45
Ayotte 37
Lamontagne 38
Gray 45
Fenty 35
Castle is going to surprise folks and win by 7+, maybe even double digits. I think his seemingly panicked last minute campaigning is just sprinting though the finish line and leaving nothing on the table. I think O’Donnell’s support is hollow, and not really there.
I think Ayotte pulls out a win, 3-4 points. Ovide’s surge ran out of time – he would have easily won if the TPX spent their money here instead of wasting it in De, however with Palin endorsing Ayotte the TPX stood down.
I think Palandino wins in NY, as the teabaggers will be motivated and most moderate GOP knows that Cuomo has this race locked up anyways so won’t bother voting.
I’d love to see Lynch lose to Mac, but I think he has enough of an operation to pull out a solid win.
O’Donnell 52
Castle 48
Lamontagne over Ayotte by a 3 point spread.
Maloney 69%
Saujani 31%
Others:
Castle 57%
O’Donnell 43%
I really hope I’m wrong…
Ovide 38%
Ayotte 34%
Binnie 13%
Bender 12%
Gray 60%
Fenty 40% (kinda unfortunate, actually)
I miss the lever machines in New York City. Even though I’m away for college right now, I really wish they brought them back. They were so fun during the mayor’s race.
And I thought I could turn in my absentee ballot today, but it turns out it had to be by yesterday. Oh well, I hope Maloney absolutely destroys Saujani.
Castle 53
O’Donnell 47
Gilibrand 70
???? 30
Ayotte 38
Lamontagne 32
Rangel gets a majority
Fenty loses
Maloney gets above 70%
Lynch wins 2 to 1
Finally, my home state votes and I don’t get to watch it live because I have class!
In a bit of a rush now but I think all the candidates I voted for in the primary will win. (RI-01 David Cicilline, RI-LG Elizabeth Roberts, RI-SoS A Ralph Mollis, RI-AG Joe Fernandez, Providence mayor Angel Taveras)
DE-SEN
O’Donnell – 53%
Castle – 47%
Turnout is reportedly very low (around 15%). Castle’s folks had been counting on 20%+ turnout to win by single digits. I actually think it will be slightly worse for Castle than Murkowski.
NH-SEN
Lamontagne – 39%
Ayotte – 37%
Binnie- 12%
Bender – 8%
Others – 4%
Hodes gets really lucky. This moves to the top of the pickup heap.
DE-Sen:
Castle- 54%
Crazy Cat Lady- 46%
MA-9:
Lynch- 58%
D’Alessandro- 42%.
Don’t have numbers for the rest, but Ayotte, Grey, Kuster, Paladino, and Maloney win.
Castle 53
O’Donnell 47
Ayotte 42
Lamontagne 38
Binnie 11
Bender 9
Meanwhile, I’m hoping Culver will make Branstad look like an idiot in tonight’s IA-Gov debate (first of three scheduled, start time 7 pm central). Branstad didn’t do that well in the GOP primary debates.
Democratic primaries
DC-Mayor: Gray 49, Fenty 41, Others 10
MA-09: Lynch 65, D’Alessandro 35
MA-10: Keating 61, O’Leary 39
NH-02: Kuster 57, Swett 43
NY-Sen-S: Gillibrand 80, Goode 20
NY-10: Towns 62, Powell 38
NY-14: Maloney 59, Saujami 41
NY-15: Rangel 43, Powell 22, Tasini 15, Johnson 13, Others 7
RI-01: Cicilline 48, Lynch 19, Gemma 17, Segal 16
RI-02: Langevin 65, Dennigan 30, other guy 5
Republican primaries
DE-Sen: O’Donnell 52, Castle 48
DE-AL: Urquhart 54, Rollins 41, Izzo 5
MD-Gov: Ehrlich 74, Murphy 26
MD-Sen: Wargotz 54, Rutledge 20, Others 26
MD-01: Harris 63, Fisher 37
MA-10: Perry 53, Malone 47
NH-Gov: Stephen 54, Kimball 30, Testerman 11, Emiro 5
NH-Sen: Ayotte 38, Lamontagne 33, Binnie 16, Bender 13
NH-01: Mahoney 45, Guinta 42, Others 13
NH-02: Bass 42, Horn 35, Giuda 17, Others 6
NY-Gov: Paladino 51, Lazio 49
NY-Sen: Townsend 57, Berntsen 43
NY-Sen-S: DioGuardi 49, Malpass 31, Blakeman 20
NY-01: Altschuler 36, Demos 33, Cox 31
NY-13: Grimm 54, Alegretti 46
NY-23: Doheny 52, Hoffman 48
RI-Gov: Robitaille 60, Moffitt 40
WI-Gov: Walker 62, Neumann 34, third dude 4
WI-08: McCormick 33, Ribble 32, Roth 23, Fourth dude 12
And Teabagger behavior in other primaries this year I’ll go O’Donnell more comfortably than expected and Ovide very narrowly. More confident of the former.
I’ve been following most of these races but not closely enough to assign percentages to most of them. Here are the ones I feel i can guess:
O’Donnell – 52
Castle – 48
Lamontagne – 39
Ayotte – 38
Lamontagne is ahead 54.3 – 30.9 with 1.3% in.
DE-Sen O’Donnell
NH-Sen Ayotte
NY-13 Rangel
WI-07 Duffy 62% Mielke 38%
75th assembly district Rivard 35% Espeseth 33% Macdonald 24% Quinton 8%
WIS-GOV R Walker 54% Neumann 43% other guy 3%
WIS-SEN R Johnson 72% Westlake 26% Finn 2%
Regrettably, I have to agree with those who have suggested Adrian Fenty, probably the best mayor DC has ever had, will be defeated.
DC-Mayor: Gray 50, Fenty 40, others 10.
Del Sen R: Castle 55, O’Donnell 45
NY-15: Rangel 48, Powell 30, others 22
NH Sen R (Upset): Lamontagne 45, Ayotte 40
Parting wish: Hopefully some of the profligate spenders that give Democrats a bad name will be bounced from the Montgomery County Council.
DE-Sen
Castle 52
O’Donnell 48
High turnout saves his ass
DE-AL
Urquahrt(sp?) 51
Rollins 46
Other: 3
MA-09
D’Allessandro: 51
Lynch 49
The last place you want to be is an anti-ObamaCare Dem in a heavily union district facing an opponent who is a former union boss with heavy union support. Plus, I get to be right if he shocks everyone. I’d be on of very few (if any) who got it right!
MA-10 (R)
Perry: 60
Malone: 40
MA-10 (D)
Keating: 58
O’Leary: 42
MD-Gov
Ehrlich 62
Murphy 38
MD-01
Harris 65
Fischer 35
BTW, Harris is much stronger. Fischer has some problems with domestic abuse and drugs
NH-Sen
Ayotte 38
Ovide 34
Bender 13
Binnie 12
others: 3
NH-01
Mahoney 39
Guinta 30
Asooch 21
Bestani 10
NY-Sen (B)
Malpass 42
DioGuardi 38
Blakeman 20
Gillibrand 65
Goode 35
NY-Gov
Paladino 51
Lazio 49
NY-01
Altshuler 35
Cox 30
Demos 30
other: 5
NY-13
Grimm 53
Allegretti 47
NY-15
Rangel 37
Powell 29
Johnson 27
Tasini 7
NY-23
Hoffman 55
Doheny 45
NY-AG
Schneiderman 31
Rice 27
the rest: 42
WI-Sen
Johnson 70
Westlake 20
Finn 10
WI-Gov
Walker 53
Neumann 47
WI-07
Duffy 85
Mielke 15
WI-08
Roth 33
Ribble 26
McCormak (sp?) 22
Savard 11
Williams 8
Schneiderman 31
Rice 28