Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010)

In lieu of a morning digest, let’s continue our series of community surveys by holding a cattle call for all the Governor’s races up this year.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up this fall in order of likelihood of flipping party control. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!

43 thoughts on “Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010)”

  1. Wyoming

    Kansas

    Rhode Island (to D or I)

    Tennessee

    Michigan

    Iowa

    Hawaii

    Pennsylvania

    Connecticut

    Ohio

    Minnesota

    Florida

    Illinois (painful to put it this high…)

    California

    Wisconsin

    New Mexico

    Maine

    Georgia

    Oregon

    Texas

    Maryland

    Massachusetts

    Vermont

    Arizona

    South Carolina

    Idaho

    New Hampshire

    Nevada

    Oklahoma

    Alabama

    Colorado

    Arkansas

    South Dakota

    Utah

    New York

    Alaska

    Nebraska

  2. Let me try…

    Likely Flip:

    Wyoming

    Rhode Island

    Kansas

    Tennessee

    Leans Flip:

    Hawaii

    Iowa

    Connecticut

    Michigan

    Pennsylvania

    Minnesota

    Florida

    Illinois

    Tossup:

    Ohio

    California

    Wisconsin

    New Mexico

    Maine

    Oregon

    Leans Retention:

    Georgia

    Texas

    Maryland

    Massachusetts

    Nevada

    Arizona

    Vermont

    Likely Retention:

    Arkansas

    New Hampshire

    Oklahoma

    Alabama

    South Carolina

    Colorado

    Everything else looks safer than safe…

  3. Definite:

    WY

    KS

    HI

    OK

    TN

    IA

    MI

    PA

    RI (R to I, possibly D)

    Probable:

    CT

    FL

    OH

    MN

    IL

    WI

    CA

    Possible:

    VT

    NM

    ME

    TX

    MD

    GA

    Unlikely:

    MA

    AZ

    NV

    SC

    AL

    NH

    SD

    CO

    AK

    Very unlikely:

    AR

    ID

    UT

    Definitely not:

    NY

    NE

  4. Florida (I to D)

    Kansas

    Wyoming

    Tennessee

    Rhode Island

    Iowa

    Hawaii

    Oklahoma

    Ohio

    Illinois

    Pennsylvania

    Connecticut

    Minnesota

    Michigan

    Wisconsin

    California

    New Mexico

    Maine

    Oregon

    Maryland

    Vermont

    Georgia

    Texas

    Colorado

    Nevada

    Massachusetts

    New Hampshire

    Arkansas

    Arizona

    South Carolina

    New York

    Alabama

    Idaho

    South Dakota

    Alaska

    Utah

    Nebraska

  5. You really think Dems are more likely to win in Florida than Republicans in Wyoming and Kansas?  I think Sink will win, but her chances are nowhere near as good as the GOP’s in extremely red states like WY and KS.

  6. but one based on pollster.com polling averages.  This gets Republicans a whopping 14 pickups, with 6 Dem pickups, for a net of 8 to the Republicans.  Flips in bold.

    1. Wyoming R+34

    2. Kansas R+33

    3. Michigan R+26

    4. Tennessee R+22

    5. Hawaii D+19

    6. Iowa R+17

    7. Rhode Island D+16

    8. Oklahoma R+16

    9. Pennsylvania R+12

    10. Connecticut D+11

    11. Maine R+11

    12. Ohio R+10

    13. Illinois R+10

    14. Minnesota D+8

    15. New Mexico R+6

    16. Florida D+6

    17. Wisconsin R+5

    18. California R+5

    19. Oregon R+4


    20. Maryland D+3

    21. Massachusetts D+5

    22. Texas R+5

    23. Georgia R+11

    24. Arkansas D+13

    25. South Carolina R+13

    26. Alaska R+14

    27. Idaho R+16

    28. New Hampshire D+17

    29. Vermont R+19

    30. Nevada R+19

    31. Arizona R+21

    32. Colorado D+22

    33. Alabama R+24

    34. South Dakota R+30

    35. Nebraska R+33

    36. Utah R+34

    37. New York D+35

  7. 1 (guaranteed gone for incumbent party): Kansas, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Wyoming.

    2. Hawaii

    3. Illinois

    4. Michigan

    5. Tennessee  

    6. Iowa

    7. Ohio

    8. Minnesota

    9. Connecticut

    10. Maine

    11. New Mexico

    12. Florida

    13. Oregon

    14. Wisconsin

    15. California

    16. Texas

    17. Georgia

    18. Arizona

    19. New Hampshire

    20. Idaho

    21. Maryland

    22. Massachusetts

    23. Vermont

    24. Alaska  

    25. Nevada

    26. Alabama

    27. Colorado

    28. Arkansas

    29. New York

    30. Utah

    31. Nebraska (So safe I keep forgetting it exists)

  8. SAFE FLIPS 100%

    1. Wyoming

    2. Kansas

    3. Rhode Island (to I or D)

    VERY LIKELY FLIPS >90%

    4. Michigan

    5. Tennessee

    6. Nevada

    7. Connecticut

    8. Pennsylvania

    9. Hawaii

    LIKELY FLIPS >75%

    10. Oklahoma

    11. Florida

    12. Illinois

    LEAN FLIP >55%

    13. Minnesota

    14. Ohio

    15. Wisconsin

    TOSSUP ~50%

    16. Maine

    17. New Mexico

    18. Oregon

    19. California

    20. Vermont

    LEAN RETENTION <55%

    21. Maryland

    22. Texas

    23. Massachusetts

    24. Georgia

    LIKELY RETENTION <75%

    25. Arizona

    26. South Carolina

    27. Idaho

    VERY LIKELY RETENTION <90%

    28. Alabama

    SAFE RETENTION 100%

    29. Utah

    30. Colorado

    31. South Dakota

  9. 1. Florida

    2. Wyoming

    3. Rhode Island

    4. Kansas

    5. Oklahoma

    6. Tennessee

    7. Hawaii

    8. Michigan

    9. Iowa

    10. Connecticut

    11. Minnesota

    12. Illinois

    13. Pennsylvania

    **Insert Florida here if you consider it R-held**

    14. Ohio

    15. Maine

    16. New Mexico

    17. Wisconsin

    18. Oregon

    19. Vermont

    20. California

    21. Georgia

    22. Texas

    23. Massachusetts

    24. Maryland

    25. South Carolina

    26. Arizona

    27. Alabama

    28. Nevada

    29. Alaska

    30. New Hampshire

    31. Colorado

    32. Arkansas

    33. Idaho

    34. South Dakota

    35. Nebraska

    36. Utah

    37. New York

  10. Again, this list may look crazy to some of you, but again, this is what I see. The voters will be the ultimate judges.

    FLIPS

    GONERS

    (1) Wyoming

    (2) Hawaii

    (3) Tennessee

    (4) California

    (5) Connecticut

    WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT (these were the toughest to rank)

    (6) Oklahoma

    (7) Kansas

    (8) Florida

    (9) Georgia

    (10) Texas

    (11) Iowa

    (12) Rhode Island (Chafee)

    (13) Pennsylvania

    (14) Illinois

    (15) Michigan

    (16) Alabama

    (17) South Carolina

    (18) Wisconsin

    (19) Maine

    (20) Massachusetts

    (21) Minnesota

    HOLDS

    MOST COMPETITIVE

    (22) Arizona

    (23) Colorado

    (24) New Mexico

    (25) Vermont

    (26) Ohio

    (27) Maryland

    RACES TO WATCH

    (28) Oregon

    (29) Nevada

    NO CONTESTS

    (30) Alaska

    (31) Idaho

    (32) Arkansas

    (33) New York

    (34) New Hampshire

    (35) Utah

    (36) South Dakota

    (37) Nebraska

  11. 1. Kansas

    2. Tennessee

    3. Wyoming

    4. Oklahoma

    5. Michigan

    6. Iowa

    7. Pennsylvania

    8. Illinois

    9. Hawaii

    10. Ohio

    11. Minnesota

    12. Maine

    13. Connecticut

    14. Rhode Island

    15. New Mexico

    16. Oregon

    17. Wisconsin

    18. Florida

    19. Vermont

    20. Maryland

    21. Massachusetts

    22. California

    23. Georgia

    24. New Hampshire

    Nothing else looks to be competitive. Today, I’d say 1-18 flip, 19-24 hold.

  12. Safe Takeover (>95%)

    1. Rhode Island (R to D/I)

    2. Wyoming (D to R)

    Likely Takeover (80-95%)

    3. Kansas (D to R)

    4. Hawaii (R to D)

    5. Tennessee (D to R)

    6. Oklahoma (D to R)

    7. Iowa (D to R)

    8. Michigan (D to R)

    9. Pennsylvania (D to R)

    10. Connecticut (R to D)

    11. Minnesota (R to D/I)

    Lean Takeover (60-80%)

    12. Florida (R/I to D)

    13. Illinois (D to R)

    Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)

    14. California (R to D)

    15. New Mexico (D to R)

    16. Ohio (D to R)

    17. Wisconsin (D to R)

    Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)

    18. Maine (D)

    19. Georgia (R)

    Lean Retention (20-40%)

    20. Oregon (D)

    21. Texas (R)

    22. Maryland (D)

    23. Vermont (R)

    24. Massachusetts (D)

    25. South Carolina (R)

    Likely Retention (5-20%)

    26. Arizona (R)

    27. Idaho (R)

    28. Nevada (R)

    29. Alabama (R)

    30. New Hampshire (D)

    Safe Retention (<5%)

    AK, AR, CO, NE, NY, SD, UT (no particular order)

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