CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Blumenthal Up By 6, Malloy Up By 9

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 51 (50)

Linda McMahon (R): 45 (40)

Undecided: 3 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

There was a lot of OMG! that came out associated with this poll yesterday, as this is the first Quinnipiac poll of their home state showing Richard Blumenthal leading in the single digits. Nate Silver, as is often the case, remained the calm, level-headed presence in the room, pointing out that Quinnipiac’s previous poll of registered voters saw a 10-point spread, and considering that the average gap we’re seeing between RV and LV polls of the same population is usually around 4 or 5, then a 6-point spread in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters probably means nothing, in fact, has changed.

Still feeling the need to push back on the Quinnipiac result, the DSCC rolled out its own internal from Hamilton Campaigns, giving Blumenthal a 54-39 lead over McMahon. (It also gave him 70/27 approval in his job as AG. And here’s perhaps the flipside of that, given McMahon’s former day job: the favorables for World Wrestling Entertainment are 21/62.) Even in the Quinnipiac poll, Blumenthal’s faves (55/39) are still much better than McMahon’s (45/41). Nevertheless, the overall trendline can’t be said to look good for Blumenthal. The question is, is there enough time left (and enough persuable undecides left) for McMahon to be able to do anything more?

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Dan Malloy (D): 50 (46)

Tom Foley (R): 41 (31)

Undecided: 8 (16)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Here’s some more support for the Nate Silver hypothesis: the exact same movement happened in the Governor’s race, where Dan Malloy’s 15-point lead in the last pre-primary RV poll turned into a 9-point lead post-primary with LVs. At any rate, it’s a bit of a surprise to see Dan Malloy (who a few months ago wasn’t really even expected to win his primary) faring better than Blumenthal is, but that probably has more to do with McMahon’s massively-self-funded, smoothly-humming campaign compared with Foley’s efforts, which have seemed disorganized and mostly defensive since even before the GOP primary. Malloy’s faves are 46/21, while they’re 34/24 for Foley.