Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 7/22-25 in parentheses):
John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (51)
John Stephen (R): 39 (34)
Undecided: 10 (15)
(MoE: ±2.2%)
Despite the fact that the odds are probably against the Dems in the Senate race, and that they face down-to-the-wire blockbusters in both House retentions (and also are probably at risk of losing the state Senate because of retirements), there’s one relatively bright spot for Granite State Dems: Governor John Lynch, seeking an unusual fourth term.
He’s kind of on the cusp of the race being competitive and not, though: he’s over 50 in PPP’s first post-primary poll, but up 12 on a more credible opponent than the last couple he’s faced (former state HHS director, and losing NH-01 primary candidate in 2008, John Stephen). That’s a somewhat smaller gap than PPP found in July, but bigger than the 11-point gap they had in April, so things have looked pretty stable here all along. The financial race within the race is a dead heat, though: as of pre-primary reports several weeks ago, Lynch had $745K CoH, while Stephen, who’s spent very little so far, has $794K. Given that and the nature of the year, it’s a race worth keeping an eye on.
But not for long. My eyes in NH are going to be focused on Hodes and McKuster. I’m not worried about CSP beating Guinta.
he will be the first four-term governor of New Hampshire ever.
Democrat – 36%
GOP – 35%
Independent – 29%
Lynch – 90/17/56 = 54%
Stephen – 10/83/44 = 46%
Granted, I don’t see a runaway here either. I suspect Lynch and Ayotte may grab the same # of Indies.
I always wonder why Lynch had no interest in running for the Senate this year. Even though the environment sucks, I think he would have won easily. It might have been at the expense of holding the governor’s mansion, but who knows?
Does anyone have any idea what is going on with the Executive Council races?