Polls will be closing at midnight Eastern (6pm local) for the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Hawaii between ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie and former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann. We’ll have a thread up later tonight to follow the returns, but until then, please share your predictions in the comments.
79 thoughts on “HI-Gov: Predictions Open Thread”
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Just my gut feeling, not based on any science.
Abercrombie-54
Hannemann-46
I am rooting for Abercrombie.
I’m a little nervous giving a prediction but…
Abercrombie 53%
Hannemann 47%
Is Hawaii doing all mail ballots this time? I’ll be around when the polls close but I’ll have to leave my computer for a few hours about 20 minutes afterwards, and I don’t want to be antsy about a Hannemann win, lol.
Complete stab in the dark…
Abercrombie: 55%
Hannemann: 41%
Some Dudes: 4%
aber 53
hanners 45
the others: and the rest of the vote
Abercrombie – 52%
Hannemann – 45%
Other – 3%
I suspect Aiona will prove a bit more competitive for the general than he’s polling now. I’m thinking a 53-47 spread for the Dems here.
Hippie 53
Mufi 45
Others 2
I mean, seriously, dude, your name if Mufi?? I imagine a bunch of scuba divers in Hawaii getting together with a group – Divers for Mufi. If I could vote in that primary, I would vote for you simply because you probably got picked on as a kid with that name – hope you were big enough to beat the crap out of anyone who teased you over it.
I wonder if the white hippie wins, will that be better for longshot Duke Aiona? Seems to me, if some people prefer to vote for ‘natives’ that this would benefit him. Also, Inouye is behind Mufi – I wonder if he’ll try as hard to get the hippie elected? I kind of like Duke Aiona, so I’m rooting for the hippie simply because I think he’ll be a bit easier to beat and Aiona needs all the help he can get.
Let’s all admit, that if you were a boy in school, you’d much rather be named ‘Duke’ than ‘Mufi’.
A race seriously worth paying attention to is the primary for LG. It has gotten little to know attention whatsoever but it is very important. I know you are thinking, who cares about who the next LG is from Hawaii but Hawaii does not have a lot of high profile dems that would be clear front runners for the Senate besides Mufi, who is too moderate for Hawaii. I think the next LG seems to be the clear front runner if a Senate seat opens up in the near future. There are two so even if Mufi wins one there is always the other.
There are seven candidates running for the office. Three of the seven are over sixty and are probably not going to be serious Senate candidates in the future do to age.
Out of the seven I think (I have very little Hawaii knowledge, just guessing) that the four front runners are State Senator Norman Sakamoto, age 63, a prominent opponent of civil unions. Former state rep and party chair Brian Schatz, age 37 (Yes, a youngster) who seems very liberal and a supporter of unions. Gary Hooser, age 56, the candidate most people on here will want to win. Hooser is very liberal and has ran a campaign mainly focusing on gay rights. He is probably the most liberal of the field (if possible, there are a bunch of lefties). He is endorsed by the Sierra Club of Hawaii, Hawaii State Teachers Association, Hawaii Nurses Association, Democratic Party of Hawaii GLBT Caucus ,Progressive Democrats of Hawaii and the Americans for Democratic Action among others. From everything I have read about Sakamoto it seems as if he is a very conservative dem, especially on civil rights. Also I think Robert Bunda, age 63, is also a front runner given his status as a long time pol and President of the State Senate. I spent time looking up the candidates and he never seemed that high profile but I could see him winning on name rec. He is against civil unions. So we should hope for Schatz or Hooser, just not Sakamoto or Bunda. My guess is that it will be either Bunda or Schatz. I am rooting for Hooser though but will not be upset if Schatz won.
Other candidates include:
Lyla Berg, age 59, a state rep who I doubt will win, however she is very liberal on gay rights and everything. She does not seem very high profile though.
Jon Riki Karamatsu, age 35, a state rep and chair of the house judiciary committee who was involved in an accident while initiated a few years back. He is a supporter of civil unions. Besides the DUI thing he seems like a good candidate and progressive.Yet I think the DUI will hold him down. Although it was a long time ago and he has since been named Chair of a major committee so who knows.
Steve Hirakami, age 64, some dude, no clue where he is on the issues.
the weightlifter 52%
the tall guy 45%
weaklings & short people 3%
But a Abercrombie by 5-10 points.
Hanneman 49
Abercrombie 47
the rest: 4
I have no clue what is going on, other than that Abercrombie should win, so I’m gonna say Hanneman just to be different than everyone else.
aber better win
On one hand Neil would make it easier for Duke to win in November, on the other hand, Mufi would block any more gay rights, so I would prefer him as governor. I have little confidence that Duke can beat Neil in the general however, which is why I’m torn.
My best guesses:
Governor
Neil Abercrombie 53%
Mufi Hannemann 45%
Art Reyes 1%
Everyone else adds up to 1%
Lt. Governor
Brian Schatz 35%
Norm Sakamoto 27%
Bob Bunda 14%
Gary Hooser 11%
Lyla Berg 9%
Jon Karamatsu 3%
Others 1%
Honolulu Mayor
Peter Carlisle 53%
Kirk Caldwell 38%
Panos Prevederos 7%
Rod Tam 2%
Honolulu Prosecutor
Don Pacarro 49%
Keith Kaneshiro 29%
Darwin Ching 22%
Abercrombie – 54%
Hannemann – 44%
Other – 2%
I really hope Abercrombie gets a strong win here. I just read a WaPo article about the campaign and Mufi Hannemann sounds like a gigantic butthead. Besides being anti gay, he really seems to have tried to inject race into the campaign with some of his mailers. He got really bent out of shape when the Post reporter asked him about this. His response was that the information in the mailer was like a “job application” and he had no motive in pointing out his wife is of Japanese descent while Abercrombie’s spouse is Caucasian. Right.
Djou 95%
Other dudes 5%
Aiona 93%
Other dudes 7%
Finnegan 55%
King 45%
Cavasso 45%
Roco 30%
Pirkowski 25%
Wait, you mean I left something out?