SurveyUSA (9/13-15, likely voters, 7/9-11 in parens):
Tarryl Clark (D): 40 (39)
Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 49 (48)
Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)
Aubrey Immelman (I): 1 (2)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Not much has changed since July, despite a ream of attack ads from Camp Bachmann on Tarryl Clark’s tax votes in the legislature. SUSA still finds that Bachmann is the choice of Generation Now, giving her a big 57-31 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds, while the gray-haired set in the 50-plus crowd backs Clark by 48-41 (up from a 1-point Bachmann lead last time).
I have a pretty jaundiced view of the chances of Dems in a district where they’ve been twice-bitten by Bachmann, and while these numbers aren’t atrocious, I just don’t see how this one gets done.
Should close a little bit more.
is the roll out of attack ads against Bachmann so this may be her high mark. But the things to attack her on pretty much just energize her base more so it’s a tough line to balance.
That margin among 18-34 year olds is just not credible, but it isn’t credible in any SUSA poll or anybody’s poll for that matter. This is an age group where those with a landline veer far more conservative than those who don’t. If SUSA says it is a 9-point race I say it could easily be only half that.
While the spreads in this poll are exaggerated it is not unusual for older voters to be more Democratic than younger voters in Minnesota. Those who grew up in the age of Humphrey, McCarthy and Mondale have established deep Democratic roots and are less likely to vote Republican than those under 50.
BTW this is probably the high water mark for Clark IMO. This district went to McCain by 9 points and to Bush by 14, I just don’t see a non Blue Dog Democrat like Clark winning this district in a Republican leaning year.
Do you guys think that Bob Anderson will become a major spoiler? The IP candidate for governor Tom Horner is center-right and may help out Bob Anderson.
Here is a partial list of Democratic Congresspeople that have a LOWER lifetime Progressive Punch rating that Peterson:
Driehause
Markey
Giffords
Kosmas
Foster
Dahlkemper
Space
Boccieri
Carney
Ellsworth
Murphy
People here are always backing these, and other moderate candidates, and they are MORE conservative than Peterson, and yet Peterson is the one that gets the terrible reputation. It boggles my mind, especailly considering that before the 08 presidential election, this district was the highest Republican PVI in the state (yes, eve more conservative that Bachmann’s)
http://www.progressivepunch.or…