Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Joe Manchin (D): 43
John Raese (R): 46
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±2.6%)
If this year’s quest to hold control of the Senate is starting to feel like a giant game of whack-a-mole to you, you’re not alone. We’ve bashed Mike Castle and Dino Rossi down into their holes? Ooops, up pop Ron Johnson… and now John Raese? Well, yes, at least according to PPP, who see mondo-sized enthusiasm gaps at work in West Virginia, enough to give a small lead to Raese despite Joe Manchin’s popularity as governor. (Bear in mind that Rasmussen has been pretty consistent in seeing a high-single-digit race in favor of Manchin here, including a 7-point lead in a poll taken in the same timeframe, so PPP’s seeing something even they aren’t.)
Manchin’s approvals are 59/32, which makes him one of the most popular governors in the country that PPP has found. The problem here seems to be the association with the national party in a federal-level race: Barack Obama’s approvals are 30/64, and this likely voter sample broke for McCain in 2008 by a 58-35 margin (instead of the 13-percent spread that actually happened in 2008). PPP estimates that if the sample mirrored 2008 composition, Manchin would be up 50-44. There’s one other bit in the fine print that gives Manchin a possible route to take: embrace the Robert Byrd legacy. Byrd’s posthumous approvals are 68/23, and by a 52-33 margin, voters want someone to “carry on Byrd’s legacy” (whatever that means to them).
UPDATE: Swing State Project is moving this race to “Lean Democratic” (from Likely Democratic).
I still think Manchin will pull this out in the end, but WV voters seem to realize they can have their cake and eat it to. Manchin as Gov and Raese for Sen.
Funny how WV’s polling reflected the Massachusetts race. Rasmussen came out with that poll showing a tight race a few weeks ago, you all laughed at it, and now PPP has Raese ahead.
I think Rasmussen has been vindicated in this cycle. Sure, their toplines and methodology are weird, but they are oddly prescient about emerging races such as this. I think they were the first to detect a competitive race in Wisconsin, in fact.
If that’s not the case, he’s in trouble, cuz Raese is surely poised to siphon-off a bunch of conservaDems.
54% of respondants want a GOP controlled congress…not a good sign for Manchin. I’m surprised to see an outright Raese lead.
WV really “should” elect Republicans to the Senate given how strongly it now votes GOP at the presidental level.
This is probably one of the top states where all the mosque talk is hurting the national democrat brand the most.
In the PPP blog memo this line stuck out:
“22% of voters in WV have the competing impulses of both liking Manchin and wanting Republicans to control the next Congress. With those folks Raese leads 57-29”
That means about 7% of the electorate want GOP control of congress but are voting for Manchin because they like the job he’s doing as Gov and 3% of the total electorate (and 30% of the undecideds) likes Manchin but want the GOP to control Congress.
These are the troubling numbers. For Manchin to win he’s got to give the voters of WV who like the job he’s doing as Gov but want the GOP to run Washington a reason to to have him switch jobs.
To winning/losing this race. If it’s about “continuing Byrd’s legacy”, Manchin can win. If it’s about “Obama Obama OBAMA!!!”, Manchin may actually lose this. “Carrying on Byrd’s legacy” means having someone looking out for West Virginia’s best interests, and IMHO Joe Manchin is the perfect candidate to argue this as the current Governor. If he can frame the race this way, he’ll probably win.
I believe them just as much when they give good news as bad.
The problem as everywhere is the enthusiasm gap. Right now it’s probably too late to make a case to change peoples minds. But what you can do is rally your base and try to win the turnout game. And THAT is what really scares me.
You laugh at the insane teapartyers. And admittedly with many there is good reason to laugh. But if they can inspire their folks to go to the polls. And in greater number than the swing true indies who may or may not show up. That’s a reciple for some surprise victories.
…or a result of PPP’s extremely stingy voter screen, but they did call a lot of people (twice as many as california for some reason). Perhaps that adds some sort of error in a mountainous state. It should reduce it.
The bad news is that the publicity of this race will wake up the right and star to funnel in money, resources, and “hope” for them, not a good thing at all.
Is any non-automated pollster going to poll this race?
Word I’m getting from on the ground is that Manchin is still the man, and lots of signs on republican lawns. Of course, in WV, republicans are more liberal than conservadems, so that may not be enough.
is banging her head against the wall. Had she run, she’d probably be up by ten. Another recruiting failure for the GOP.
Having said that, the DSCC will now have to through money at this race. That, of course, means less money for places like Missouri and New Hampshire (and maybe even Pennsylvania). That, in turn, probably means more GOP money flowing into Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada and West Virginia. A real domino effect.
This election need not, and should not, have been held. But his ambition and fear of what the RWEC would say, got the best of him.
Last week, we had Murray polling well, the Republicans giving us Delaware back, almost giving us NH-02, and a close race in NH-Sen. Now, we’re getting crappy poll numbers here and in WI-Sen.
But I’m through with that. As long as the progressives win in Democratic-held seats, I’ll be happy, regardless of what else happens. That means California, Wisconsin, Washington, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Nevada. A loss in Illinois I could live with because Kirk is relatively sane.
Recent polls posted here have shown Dems trending upwards in hard fought battles. This poll depresses me once more.
I find that hard to swallow. Isn’t it supposed to be at 70?
Part of me thinks that Raese is going to win this race, possibly going away. Part of me thinks that this will end up like the one in PA-12 (whose demographics are very similar to WV, and Raese is similar to Tim Burns as a candidate).
On another note, Ron Johnson is going to beat Feingold. That I’m pretty sure of right now.
Ben Nelson was a popular governor in a red state (in actually a good Democratic year — but not in Nebraska), and most people assumed he’d beat this unknown guy named Chuck Hagel. Hagel ended up winning by 14 points, even though most Nebraskans had a favorable view of Nelson and thought he was a good governor.
Nelson ran again four years later and eeeked out a very close win. Now, I’m not saying this means Joe Manchin loses — in large part because the guy he’s running against is no Chuck Hagel.
It’s hard to say what’s going on with two different polls showing two different thing. It’s clear that Raese is in the mid-40s, but the thing is, Rasmussen and PPP are seeing different things as to where Manchin’s support is. 43% in one poll and 50% in another is a big gap.