Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):
Virg Bernero (D): 31 (28)
Rick Snyder (R): 52 (44)
Undecided: 16 (28)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
PPP’s poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race is a pretty clear indicator this one has moved out of play for the Democrats, Virg Bernero’s best efforts notwithstanding. A look at all polling shows that over the month of August, after the primary, this gradually moved from a lead for Republican Rick Snyder in the mid-teens, up to the low 20s.
Not only is there the problem of Bernero being weighed down by Jennifer Granholm’s unpopularity (Bernero’s at 28/43), but as PPP’s Tom Jensen points out, this is one GOP primary where they actually managed to shepherd through their most electable candidate (a Bernero/Mike Cox race would have been interesting, but we won’t get to find out). Snyder has 43/28 faves, including an amazing 53/17 among independents. With this race probably having already landed on the wrong end of DGA triage decisions, we’re moving this race to Likely Republican (from Lean Republican).
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
The Governor’s race is pretty much over. The interesting races are downballot. The SOS and AG’s races appear to be somewhat competitive.
There is no way he gets reelected with this bs he’s pulling
http://www.senate.gov/legislat…
Definitely would’ve been the best match-up for the Democrats. Part of me wishes this is how it turned out. At the same time, I don’t think I could have tolerated Cox being my governor. I seriously would’ve contemplated relocating if he had won. So the other part of me is relieved we won’t end with a far-right guy as governor. Unfortunately, I think Snyder will not govern as a moderate in order to prevent a primary challenge in 2014.
I think Snyder will win but I stand by my feeling that it will be closer than expected…something like 52%-47% or 53%-46%. Bernero will probably get most of the undecided voters. Unfortunately, it probably won’t be enough to win.
Sink is doing it in Florida right now as well. White should pick it up in Texas.
Run as a non-threatening executive and completely downplay your party affiliation.
Bernero is hyper partisan, Scott is trying to run against Obama. Perry is far right Republican.
I think folks are tired of the hyper-partisanship, especially for a position such as Governor.
Us winning so big in 2006 riding that wave of disaster means that we got totally fucked in 2010 as they ride this disaster back, just in time for redistricting. And PA and MI just cycled right on through parties with us winning in 2002 and them getting their two-terms.
We just cant ever win…….
This is PPP’s most wild sample yet. Fully 1/3 of Obama voters will stay home and vote for nobody relative to Mccain voters.
What this means:
In 2008 Obama got 2,872,000 votes
In 2004 Kerry got 2,479,000 votes
33% of 2.872 is 948,000
So PPP is saying that not only is the quivalent of every single person who voted for Obama but not Kerry is not going to vote… but that about 16% of the Kerry voters will not vote either. This is an amount greater than the number of people who voted for Kerry but not Gore.
PPP’s sample says none of these people will change their mind to vote for a Republican. PPP is saying turnout will not be “different than 2008”, they are saying zero Obama voters who didn’t vote for Gore will vote at all.
In 2006, 3.8million Michigan voters turned out (for the Gov race). About 4.8 turned out for Bush/Kerry in 2004… so the midterm turnout was about 80% of the previous Prez election. (It was about 85% between 2000 and 2002.)
So this sample says that if 80% of Mccain voters show up in November, about 56% of Obama voters will.
It’s just not going to happen. Bernero may be beaten badly, but it’s not going to because of a no-show rate harkening back to before women got the right to vote. It will be because some Obama voters change their mind and vote for Snyder.