It’s high time we do a House Cattle Call, seeing as we haven’t done one all cycle.
In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank House seats in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s House race ratings. Have fun!
1. TN-06
2. LA-03
3. AR-02
4. HI-01 (R held)
5. NY-29
6. OH-01
7. OH-15
8. LA-02 (R held)
9. NY-24
10. VA-05
11. PA-07
12. PA-11
13. FL-24
14. TX-17
15. MD-01
16. DE-AL (R held)
17. IN-08
18. NH-02
19. WA-03
20. IL-10 (R held)
Just made a few adjustments.
For fun, possible Democratic pickups are in bold. All six of them!
1. TN-06 OPEN (Gordon) R+13
2. NY-29 OPEN (Massa) R+5
3. DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
4. AR-02 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
5. LA-03 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
6. LA-02 Joe Cao D+25
7. KS-03 OPEN (Moore) R+3
8. VA-05 Tom Perriello R+5
—Sorry guys, but a liberal congressman in a conservative district who only won by 700 votes in a great Democratic year against a flawed incumbent doesn’t have too much hope in a Republican year against a strong challenger. Shame, because he really is a great public servant.
9. MI-01 OPEN (Stupak) R+3
10. OH-01 Steve Dreihaus D+1
11. IN-08 OPEN (Ellsworth) R+8
—I could see this turning around if Ellsworth gets his act together with the Senate race. I don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to do that anymore.
12. MS-01 Travis Childers R+14
13. MD-01 Frank Kratovil R+13
14. IL-11 Debbie Halvorsen R+1
15. PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+5
—This seat certainly wouldn’t be safe if it were open, but there’s no reason for this race to be this high up except that Kanjo didn’t get the message and retire after 2008.
16. ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
17. OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
18. AR-01 OPEN (Berry) R+8
19. PA-07 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
—Ditto this seat and Sestak’s campaign, though I have more confidence in Sestak’s ability to emerge from the point when the “experts” declare him dead because he’s done it before.
20. HI-01 Charles Djou D+11
21. CO-04 Betsy Markey R+6
22. TN-08 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
23. WA-03 OPEN (Baird) D+0
24. MI-07 Mark Schauer R+2
—I don’t really buy Schauer’s poll; I think at the end of the day Michigan is going to be
25. WI-07 OPEN (Obey) D+3
26. OH-16 Jim Boccieri R+4
27. VA-02 Glenn Nye R+5
28. TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
29. FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
—Alex Sink will likely help us a lot out here, but I’m not sure it will be enough.
30. IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
—I wonder if the toxic environment in IL this year could wrestle this seat away from us.
31. NH-02 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
32. SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
33. AL-02 Bobby Bright R+16
34. NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
35. PA-03 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
36. NM-02 Henry Teague R+6
—It’s right about here that I start to wonder if Democrats are slightly favored in just enough toss-ups to hang on to a tiny majority in the house.
37. MI-09 Gary Peters D+2
38. WV-01 OPEN (Mollohan) R+9
39. IN-09 Baron Hill R+6
40. NY-19 John Hall R+3
41. AZ-01 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
42. WI-08 Steve Kagan R+2
43. SC-05 John Spratt R+7
44. AZ-05 Harry Mitchell R+5
—I strongly suspect (and know in case) that what polling we’ve gotten in this district has badly undersampled ASU students. The question is how many of them actually bother to show up when Obama is not on the ballot.
45. PA-08 Patrick Murphy D+2
46. CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
47. FL-08 Alan Grayson R+2
—Does Democratic control of the house rest on the broad, crazy shoulders of Alan Grayson? May the Flying Spaghetti Monster have mercy on us all.
–Control of the House–
48. CO-03 John Salazar R+5
49. MO-04 Ike Skelton R+14
50. NY-24 Mike Arcuri R+2
51. PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
—I think Marino’s scandal has some legs. If it fizzles, this seat probably moves up about ten spots.
52. FL-25 OPEN (Diaz-Balart) R+5
53. IA-03 Leonard Boswell D+1
54. IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
55. TN-04 Lincoln Davis R+13
56. NV-03 Dina Titus D+2
57. OH-18 Zach Space R+7
58. FL-02 Allen Boyd R+6
59. NY-01 Tim Bishop R+0
60. IL-17 Phil Hare D+3
61. NC-08 Larry Kissell R+2
62. TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
63. FL-24 Ron Klein D+1
64. GA-08 Jim Marshall R+10
65. AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
—Republicans nominated the wrong candidate here without question. Giffords will probably win the Northside suburbs and then it’s pretty much over for Kelly.
66. WA-02 Rick Larsen D+3
67. PA-12 Mark Critz R+1
68. CA-47 Loretta Sanchez D+4
69. OH-06 Charlie Wilson R+2
70. IN-02 Joe Donnelly R+2
71. MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) D+5
72. ID-01 Walter Minnick R+18
73. CA-03 Dan Lungren R+6
74. NC-11 Heath Schuler R+6
75. NM-01 Marty Heinrich D+5
I hope the DCCC will release another round of polling in WA 3 since Herrera’s double speak on Social Security. I think Heck is going to pull this one out but it will be close. There seems to be slow but steady erosion of support for Herrera as more small business people from Thurston and Clark Counties endorse Heck.
have never done a House Cattle call before. Sounds like fun.
1 LA-03
2 TN-06
3 AR-02
4 NY-29
5 DE-AL
6 LA-02
7 KS-03
8 PA-07
9 HI-01
10 IN-08
11 CO-04
12 NH-02
13 PA-11
14 OH-01
15 OH-15
16 PA-03
17 TX-17
18 VA-05
19 MS-01
20 FL-08
21 IL-11
22 ND-AL
23 OH-16
24 FL-02
25 PA-08
26 IL-10
27 MI-01
28 AR-01
29 MD-01
30 NM-02
31 TN-08
32 MI-01
33 NY-24
34 VA-02
35 MI-07
37 SD-AL
38 NY-19
39 IA-03
40 FL-24
Wow, that was very hard, I am stopping here. I more than likely left some DOA’s or likely DOA’s off. I am sure if I had to rewrite this list without seeing this one it would be different. I am also sure when re-reading this I am going to rethink it. It’s my first time. Oh Well, I did my best.
1) TN-6 OPEN (Gordon)
2) LA-3 OPEN (Melancon)
3) AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) – should have gone with Wills
4) LA-2 Joseph Cao – don’t care what any polls have been saying, this thing won’t end up being close
5) NY-29 VACANT (Massa)
6) OH-1 Steve Driehaus
7) VA-5 Tom Perriello – sigh… I like this guy
8) KS-3 OPEN (Moore)
9) DE-AL OPEN (Castle) – Dems have solid candidate, and DE Repubs chose crazy on all fronts
10) CO-4 Betsy Markey
11) TX-17 Chet Edwards – I also like him (he outperforms his district big time), unfortunately he probably loses badly
12) IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth)
13) HI-1 Charles Djou – I hate Ed Case for putting us in this situation in the first place
14) OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
15) MD-1 Frank Kratovil
16) WA-3 OPEN (Baird)
17) MS-1 Travis Childers
18) ND-AL Earl Pomeroy
19) FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
20) MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) – Gary McDowell is actually pretty strong
21) AR-1 OPEN (Berry) – This would be top 10 if there candidate wasn’t Rick Crawford
22) PA-11 Paul Kanjorski
23) TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) – Roy Herron is also strong
24) IL-11 Debbie Halvorson
25) WV-1 OPEN (Mollohan) – Very bad environment in WV
26) VA-2 Glenn Nye
27) PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
28) MI-7 Mark Schauer – At least Walberg sucks
29) OH-16 John Boccieri
30) PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper
31) NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
32) FL-8 Alan Grayson – Grayson v. Webster ought to be fun
33) AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
34) IN-9 Baron Hill
35) WI-7 OPEN (Obey)
36) NM-2 Harry Teague – for a while I thought he was DOA, but I think he still has a decent shot
37) NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
38) AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick – too bad we have so many pro-choice women (Markey, Kilroy, Kosmas, Halvorson, Shea-Porter, Kirkpatrick) in swing districts facing tough odds against anti-choice d-bags (Gardner, Stivers, Adams, Kinzinger, Guinta, Gosar)
39) IL-10 OPEN (Kirk)
40) AL-2 Bobby Bright – if he loses, its simply because of the D next to his name as he is a perfect match for this district
41) SC-5 John Spratt
42) SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
43) NY-19 John Hall
44) FL-2 Allen Boyd
45) PA-8 Patrick Murphy – I really like this guy as well, hopefully voters don’t go for retread Fitzpatrick
46) NC-8 Larry Kissell
47) IL-14 Bill Foster
48) NY-1 Tim Bishop
49) WI-8 Steve Kagen
50) CA-11 Jerry McNerney
51) MI-9 Gary Peters
52) NV-3 Dina Titus
53) GA-8 Jim Marshall
54) PA-12 Mark Critz
55) IA-3 Leonard Boswell
56) CO-3 John Salazar
57) OH-18 Zach Space
58) CA-47 Loretta Sanchez – open mouth, insert foot
59) MO-4 Ike Skelton
60) MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt)
61) NY-24 Mike Arcuri – by far most overrated district for chance of flipping, even though he’s not my favorite
62) NM-1 Martin Heinrich
63) ID-1 Walt Minnick
64) AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
65) PA-10 Chris Carney – big time Marino baggage, plus positive press for Carney pretty much all cycle
66) FL-25 OPEN (M. Diaz-Balart)
67) TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
68) NY-13 Mike McMahon
69) IN-2 Joe Donnelly
70) VA-11 Gerry Connolly
71) IL-17 Phil Hare
72) NJ-3 John Adler
73) WA-2 Rick Larsen
74) PA-15 Charlie Dent
75) TN-4 Lincoln Davis
Gone:
TN-06. 100% chance of flipping.
LA-03.
AR-02. Wrong candidate, wrong year.
KS-03. Ditto. Don’t run the retiring incumbent’s wife.
NY-29. Buh-bye.
VA-05.
OH-01. Chabot only lost b/c of black vote for Obama.
TX-17. Edwards is hosed.
SC-05. So is Spratt. (Hint: don’t announce you have Parkinson’s then immediately file for re-election!)
IL-11. And Halverson.
Likely Gone:
DE-AL
HI-01
MI-07. This is a weird district that hates Walberg, but hates being represented by a Dem even more.
OH-15. Kilroy sucks at campaigning.
CO-04. Red district, red year.
FL-24. Kosmas is weak.
PA-03. So is Dahlkemper.
LA-02 .
AR-01.
FL-24.
VA-02.
PA-07. Philly suburbs suck for us this year.
PA-08. Not optimistic about this race.
NY-19. And got a bad feeling about this one, too.
FL-02. Boyd might pull it out, but I doubt it.
IL-10 Can’t be taken for granted, though.
MS-01. Childers will go down fighting, at least.
FL-25 Garcia is a great candidate and this area is bluing fast. Good feeling about this one.
WI-07. Not enough polling, but WI is shaping up to be one of our worst states, so I’m not optimistic.
MA-10. Too many Dems spoil the broth here.
NH-02. Kuster a good candidate, but starting too late.
TN-08. Like MS-01, not going out without a fight.
MI-01. We’re down, but close to tying. Could still win here.
WA-03. Ditto.
Tossups:
MD-01. Ugly, ugly district, but Harris has lost before.
IN-08. Ellsworth is working harder to save this seat than he is to actually win the Senate race.
OH-16. Not too sanguine about Boccieri’s chances.
AL-02. Dead tossup. No idea how it’ll break.
MI-09. Even district, bad state, bad year, tossup race.
IL-17. No polling, so let’s leave it here.
KS-04 . Pompeo’s gone “full Sali” here.
NY-23. Hoffman is a non-factor at this point.
WV-01. Olivero teabaggish enough to win, but he’ll be a Republican by spring.
NM-02. I have no idea where to put this one.
WI-08. Or this one.
Lean incumbent:
IL-14.
CT-05. We’re in way more trouble here than we think.
ND-AL. Rumors of Pomeroy’s demise are greatly exaggerated, but it’ll still be close.
IA-03. Ditto for Boswell.
CA-11.
NY-01. I don’t trust blue-state suburban voters this year.
NV-03. Titus gets a lot of ex-Porter voters and is fighting.
IN-09. No way a guy from Bloomington/Carmel beats Hill.
NH-01. Guinta sucks. CSP will defy the pundits once again.
NY-24. Arcuri will win in spite of himself.
TX-23.
CT-04. Himes is made of money.
NY-20. Murphy will hold on.
AZ-01.
NM-01. Will be surprisingly close.
ID-01. Minnick’s in great shape given his district.
IA-02. Closer than it should be.
CA-03 . Ditto, only in our direction.
SD-AL. Not even this year.
NJ-03. Winnable race for the GOP, then they picked Runyan.
OR-05. Bruun is overrated. Schrader will sweep rural areas.
AZ-08. Another GOP fail.
IN-02. Ditto. Donnelly can lose, but not to Wacky Jackie.
NY-13. And while we’re at it….Staten Island GOP WIN.
MI-03 . Mostly overlooked, but still worth watching.
AZ-07.
CA-47.
PA-15 Right candidate, wrong year.
MA-05. Because Tsongas is weak and MA voters are idiots.
CA-45 . Had to put it somewhere.
MN-06 . We can dream.
PA-12. Critz is facing Burns. Otherwise there’d be trouble.
OH-18. Really don’t see Space in trouble.
PA-06 .
Likely incumbent:
NC-08. Kissell fits his district well.
OH-13. Even in Ohio this year, Sutton will be fine.
WA-02. Overrated. Nobody knows how to poll Washington.
WA-09. Ditto.
ME-01. Pingree is weak, but no real opponent.
PA-10. Yes, I put Carney this low, even this year.
CA-18. Overrated.
CA-20. Ditto.
VA-11. Tritto.
UT-02.
MA-03. Even I don’t see this one being that competitive.
ME-02. Don’t buy the poll showing Langevin down.
KY-06.
KY-03.
RI-02. Not here, either.
NC-02. Only on the MSM list because some teabaggers threw a hissy fit after big bad Etheridge called them stupid.
RI-01. Safest Dem open seat of the cycle.
IA-01.
PA-04.
VA-09.
No one seems to have this anywhere on their lists despite polling suggesting the Dem, Lori Edwards can hit 40 percent and still win. That’s because there is a legitimate 3rd party Teabagger in the race who was polling around 25 percent. Anyone think we can take this seat?
AR-2
TN-6
TN-8
VA-5
LA-3
LA-2
IL-11
PA-3
DE-AL
PA-7
HI-1
MI-1
…That’s all I got right now.
excluding possibly Democratic pickups.
1) TN-6
2) AR-2
3) NY-29
4) LA-3
5) KS-3
6) IN-8
7) VA-5
8) MI-1
9) IL-11
10) TX-17
11) AR-1
12) TN-8
13) MD-1
14) OH-1
15) MS-1
16) PA-8
17) PA-3
18) PA-10
19) OH-16
20) CO-4
21) WA-3
22) NH-2
23) PA-11
24) ND-AL
25) PA-7
26) OH-15
27) FL-24
28) WV-1
29) IN-9
30) MI-7
31) NY-19
32) AZ-5
33) NM-2
33) AL-2
34) GA-8
35) NH-1
36) WI-8
37) AZ-1
38) IL-14
39) CO-3
40) VA-2
41) FL-8
42) SC-5
43) SD-AL
44) FL-2
45) NV-3
46) NY-24
47) MI-9
48) TN-4
49) PA-12
50) IL-17
51) WA-2
52) OH-18
53) TX-23
54) CA-11
55) CO-7
56) NC-8
57) OH-6
58) NC-11
59) NJ-3
60) PA-4
Goes like this:
1.TN-6
2.AR-2
3.NY-29
4.LA-2 (dem)
5.LA-3
6.PA-11
7.DE-1 (dem)
8.WA-3
9.IL-11
10.VA-2
11.OH-1
12.MI-1
13.AR-1
14.KS-3
15.NH-2
16.VA-5
17.MD-1
18.TX-17
19.PA-3
20.ND-1
21.MS-1
22.PA-7
23.OH-15
24.CO-4
25.HI-1 (dem)
26.IL-10 (dem)
27.MI-7
28.AZ-5
29.FL-24
30.PA-8
31.SC-5
32.TN-8
33.FL-2
34.WI-7
35.IL-14
36.FL-25 (dem)
37.NY-19
38.FL-8
39.PA-10
——————– my flip line
39.OH-16
40.MO-4
41.NY-24
42.AL-2
43.IA-3
44.NM-2
——————– house majority line
45.AZ-1
46.FL-22
47.NY-1
48.NV-3
49.GA-8
50.CA-11
51.WA-2
52.FL-12 (dem)
53.TX-23
54.SD-1
55.CO-3
56.TN-4
57.ID-1
58.NC-8
59.WI-8
60.WV-1
61.IN-9
62.MI-9
63.OH-18
64.OR-5
65.IL-17
66.NY-13
67.MA-10
68.CO-7
69.NJ-3
70.CT-5
71.NY-23
72.MS-4
73.OH-13
74.UT-2
75.KY-6
I hope I didn’t forget anybody obvious.
(Republican-held seats in bold.)
LA-02
TN-06
LA-03
NY-29
DE-AL
AR-02
VA-02
TN-08
OH-01
AR-01
HI-01
KS-03
PA-07
OH-15
PA-11
NH-02 (-10)
— I think the losses above the line are sure things. —
MI-07
VA-05
CO-04
SC-05
MI-01
IL-10
PA-08
MD-01
ND-AL
IN-09
— Toss-Up territory starts about here. —
FL-08
NM-02 (-20)
NY-24
IL-11
AZ-05
FL-24
NH-01
NY-19
MI-09
IL-14
— I think here’s where we are now. Certainly the next couple dozen seats down are still very much in doubt. —
FL-25
IA-03
FL-02
TX-17 (-30)
NC-08
WV-01
NY-01
WA-03
TX-23
AL-02
PA-12
SD-AL
— Line of Control —
WA-02 (-40)
NV-03
GA-08
AZ-01
NY-23
— I’d say the incumbent party was favored by at least a little from here on down. —
OH-16
PA-04
CA-11
WI-08
OH-13
KS-04
ID-01
MO-04 (-50)
NC-11
OH-18
NY-20
IN-08
CA-20
NM-01
MA-10
CA-18
TN-04
NJ-03
AZ-08 (-60)
PA-10
CT-05
GA-12
NC-02
— Here’s about where the stunners would start. —
CO-03
IN-02
PA-06
WA-09
UT-02
CA-47
VA-09
MS-04
VA-11 (-70)
MN-01
KY-06
PA-15
AR-04
I actually feel better about holding the House after doing this. There’s sadly a near-complete lack of good second-tier Democratic opportunities…but Team Blue only needs to hold seats where they seem to have a better-than-even chance of keeping to hold on.
I see a few seats above the line where I like our chances reasonably well.
SAFE FLIPS 100%
TN-06 Gordon R
AR-02 Snyder R
NY-29 Massa R
LA-02 Cao D
LA-03 Melancon R
OH-01 Driehaus R
PA-11 Kanjorski R
OH-15 Kilroy R
8 to Republican, 1 to Democratic, NET 7 Republican
LIKELY FLIPS 75%-100%
OH-16 Boccieri R
TX-17 Edwards R
DE-AL Castle D
IL-11 Halvorson R
NH-02 Hodes R
MI-07 Schauer R
HI-01 Djou D
PA-03 Dahlkemper R
PA-08 Murphy R
WA-03 Baird R
IN-08 Ellsworth R
PA-07 Sestak R
WI-07 Obey R
11 to Republican, 2 to Democratic, NET 16 Republican
LEAN FLIP 55%-75%
IL-10 Kirk D
VA-05 Perriello R
AR-01 Berry R
AZ-05 Mitchell R
MI-09 Peters R
MI-01 Stupak R
SC-05 Spratt R
FL-02 Boyd R
IL-14 Foster R
NM-02 Teague R
9 to Republican, 1 to Democratic, NET 24 Republican
TOSSUP 45%-55%
CO-04 Markey R
TX-23 Rodriguez R
FL-25 Diaz-Balart D
VA-02 Nye R
ND-AL Pomeroy R
NV-03 Titus R
KS-04 Tiahrt D
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick R
MS-01 Childers R
NH-01 Shea Porter R
FL-24 Kosmas R
NJ-03 Adler R
CA-11 McNerney R
WI-08 Kagen R
MO-04 Skelton R
NY-24 Arcuri R
MD-01 Kratovil R
NY-19 Hall R
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FLIP-TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
IN-02 Donnelly R
FL-12 Putnam R
18 to Republican, 2 to Democratic, NET 40 Republican
LEAN RETENTION 25%-45%
NM-01 Heinrich R
NC-08 Kissell R
SD-AL Herseth Sandlin R
WA-02 Larsen R
FL-08 Grayson R
AL-02 Bright R
IA-03 Boswell R
NY-01 Bishop R
FL-24 Klein R
IL-17 Hare R
10 to Republican, 0 to Democratic, NET 50 Republican
LIKELY RETENTION 10%-25%
AZ-08 Giffords R
IN-09 Hill R
OR-05 Schrader R
CO-03 Salazar R
PA-10 Carney R
TN-04 Davis R
OH-18 Space R
CA-47 Sanchez R
PA-15 Dent D
PA-12 Critz R
NY-23 Owens R
WA-08 Reichert D
PA-06 Jim Gerlach D
MN-01 Walz R
MS-04 Taylor R
NY-13 McMahon R
PA-17 Holden R
ID-01 Minnick R
15 to Republican, 3 to Democratic, NET 62 Republican
46 D, 4 R.
TN 6
LA 3
NY 29
AR 2
LA 2
MS 1
MD 1
CO 4
OH 1
MI 1
DE
VA 5
KS 3
VA 2
FL 24
OH 15
TX 17
PA 7
TN 8
IN 8
HI 1
FL 2
AR 1
FL 8
OH 16
NM 2
PA 11
IL 11
WA 3
PA 8
ND
MI 7
IL 14
WI 7
NH 2
SC 5
WI 8
IN 9
NY 19
NH 1
AZ 5
NY 24
NV 3
AL 2
PA 10
SD
AZ 1
FL 22
IL 10