LA Times/USC (9/15-22, likely voters, 5/19-26 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 49 (44)
Meg Whitman (R): 44 (38)
Undecided: 5 (13)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (44)
Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (38)
Undecided: 4 (16)
(MoE: ±3.3%)
Here’s one more poll showing that the Democratic surge-let in California seems to be for real: the newest LA Times/USC poll gives mid-to-high single digit leads to both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer. The poll’s trendlines go back to May, so they’ve missed a lot of ups and downs in the race, but the margins are similar to most of the other polls that have come out in the last few weeks. Apparently, all the Democrats needed to do to get some traction in these races was to… start advertising? Who knew?
Also, like most recent California polls, nobody’s very enthused about Brown (40/41) or Boxer (44/41), but they’re the paragon of popularity compared with Whitman (33/44) and Fiorina (24/29). The most popular person in the poll? Barack Obama, at a strangely high 63/33. That lack of disappointment, compared with pretty much every other state, seems to be part of what’s keeping California’s enthusiasm gap down to a manageable level. (Among all respondents, the Brown/Whitman margin isn’t any different, at 46-42. Boxer fares a bit better among all respondents, though, leading 53-38.)
I never really expected Boxer to be in trouble. Fiorina isn’t moderate, and doesn’t pretend to be. Even in a Republican year, I can’t see the current California electorate bringing in someone that calls global warming ‘weather’ and ships jobs overseas to China.
Now Whitman, I wasn’t so convinced would lose. You spend 100+, and all bets are off. I’ve argued with some of my friends in law school here in Sacramento, that if she isn’t destroying Brown in the polls after spending a 100 million, then she’s in serious trouble. Especially when he’s only spent an equivalent of what Whitman finds in the cushions of her couch(es). No one listens to me though. Glad to see the polls are starting to prove me right.
I suggest you all move to the Golden State.
Dems made up only 42% in 2008. With Obama atop the ticket. If you took their cross-tabs, and attached them to a more realistic model (say, 40% Dem), Fiorina and Whitman would actually be ahead.