CBS News/NY Times (9/23-27, likely voters, no trend lines):
Lee Fisher (D): 34
Rob Portman (R): 45
Undecided: 18Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42
John Kasich (R): 43
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Ipsos for Reuters (9/23-25, likely voters, 8/6-8 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)
Rob Portman (R): 50 (43)Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (39)
John Kasich (R): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4%)
More of the same for Lee Fisher, a guy whose campaign has few true believers these days. But what’s this? Two polls showing Gov. Ted Strickland only down by a point? That’s the best math we’ve seen for Strickland since May. Even recent polls from Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati have this race in the low single-digits. Is it reasonable to hope that Ted Strickland has a fighting chance to hold this crucial office, despite the months-long narrative that Ohio Democrats are on the ropes?
It just sucks that Fisher is doing everything wrong.
When it comes to House races with the exception of Driehaus and possibly Kilroy I think the rest will survive. Fisher I never had much hope because I never thought of him as a great candidate while despite the obvious flaws Portman has becaome a great candidate to hold OH-Sen because of him being a walking political ATM and that wholesome down to earth moderate image he carved out during his days in Congress.
Kasich hasn’t been able to carve out that moderate niche Portman has and the Dems have been airing ads regarding him and Lehman Brothers and his taxes. That could be bringing down.
Is there hope, looking like it. Can Strickland win, he could but I like to see some more polling to see if him catching up on Kasich is the read deal or just smoke if you know what I mean.
knows how to run a campaign. Fisher doesn’t. Any area where Strickland may carry the House member to victory?
I think Driehaus is done, more because of his district. Kilroy is done after her performance in 2008. Not sure about OH-16.
have any kind of real coordinated campaign? Strickland is going to need strong GOTV to pull through.
This shows that candidates and campaigns matter and the economy and the national environment aren’t everything. A little while ago these two races were in about the same place. Strickland seems to be doing a much better job than Fisher (and/or Portman doing better than Kasich) at playing the hand he’s been dealt.
Portman will not only win, he’ll be the GOP VP nominee in 2012.
He seemingly pulled a Coakley, but took the whole summer off. He’s an epic drag on Strickland as well. If Lee could have been within single digits, Strickland would probably be ahead.
Brunner might not have been a good fundraiser, but she brought energy – something the Fisher campaign is lacking completely.
Has Kasich up just 45-43.
Seeing Strickland show signs of life makes me really happy. The Midwest is looking like it’s going to be a real shitshow for Democratic governor’s seats with Culver, Bernero and Barrett likely losing to faux moderates. Dayton picking up Minnesota and Strickland winning re-election would be a real bright spot.
I don’t think Fisher’s necessarily a bad candidate, but you can’t win in a swing state in a bad year for your party when you’re being as outspent as he is. If he had the cash to compete, this might be close, but Portman’s already pulled away.
As I predicted earlier we are getting a lot of “well Brunner would be doing so much better”. Well I want to give one reply to this and I pledge here and now this will be my last Fisher V Brunner comment until after the election.
Yes Brunner is so energetic and such a good campaigner. She knows how to bring the base out. Yeah because she totally got her base out on primary day, oh wait… Fisher has ran a crappy campaign, but what do you expect? Portman is a great candidate. He is probably the best the GOP could have gotten. He is a GREAT fundraiser, good on tv and very electable. I can’t think of a better candidate the GOP could have gotten. He would be crushing anyone, and yes that definitely includes Brunner. I see no evidence that she would be doing better now at all. I am aware that we can never know for sure but I honestly think she would be doing worse. This race has always been, as clone put it, fools gold. So who won the primary is really pointless. Even if we would have gotten an A list candidate we would still have little to no chance. I correctly predicted a few nights after the Ohio primary that we would be hearing a lot of people saying how better we would be with Brunner regardless of how the campaign went. Everyone complains about Fisher running a crappy campaign, well do you want to know his biggest problem? Money. He has gone silent because he does not have the money to make this an effective race. Does anyone here honestly think Brunner would be doing a whole lot better on that front? I don’t think any candidate would, who wants to give money to a candidate who can’t win? Of course the biggest argument, “Brunner brings out the base”. Bull, she has a boat load of net root love but net root love does not add up to actual votes most of the time. I am guessing that this race currently looks like 55-45 Portman, had Brunner been the nominee I would say, 60-40 Portman. I started this campaign as a Brunner backer but at the end of the day the thing I want most in a candidate is their ability to win the general. She did not possess this ability. I foolishly thought Fisher did, but I still do not regret my support for Fisher, he is still the better candidate to them in my book.
I could see kuchinich getting a surprise loss. sure his district is very democratic, but in an odd, anti-incumbent anti-dem year, i could see voters just saying eh to kucinich. not saying it’s likely, just about 1-5%.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50…
Kasich 43%
Strickland 42%
Undecided 11%
Portman 45%
Fisher 34%
Undecided 18%
A 4th poll showing Strickland closing.
I remember hearing a ton of buzz in 2008 that Obama’s ground game in Ohio was amazingly good, but he only improved on Kerry’s number by 2.5%, much less than he improved on Kerry in most other states. If there is a strong existing Democratic field operation in Ohio though, that could really help Strickland, because success in that state depends so much on turning out the urban and union vote.