NM-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/25-26, likely voters, 2/18-20 in parens):
Diane Denish (D): 42 (46)
Susana Martinez (R): 50 (32)
Undecided: 8 (21)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
PPP has been out of the field in New Mexico for seven months, so Martinez’s surge appears slightly more dramatic than it actually was. Any way you slice it, though, these numbers are still a bitter pill for Democrats to swallow. Given that Denish has trailed in both her own and Martinez’s polling by anywhere between 5 and 10 points, this poll suggests that the recent DGA poll purporting to show a tied race is an outlier.
While we’re at it, let’s also sweep up the the state’s three House races…
Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 50 (45)
Jon Barela (R): 43 (36)
Undecided: 7 (19)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Harry Teague (D-inc): 47 (41)
Steve Pearce (R): 48 (43)
Undecided: 5 (16)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Ben Ray Lujan (D-inc): 49 (42)
Tom Mullins (R): 43 (36)
Undecided: 8 (22)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
It makes me queasy that Ben Ray Lujan is only six points up in Tom Udall’s old district, but Teague in a dead heat and Heinrich up by 7 are results that I can live a bit more comfortably with. At least all three Democratic House incumbents are out-performing Denish.
Remember Bill Redmond?
Great to have a poll of my native state! The only thing that jumps out at me here is Lujan’s lack of a commanding lead. That said, this type of district is not a blue trending district that is unusually unfavorable to us this year (blue-collar Midwestern district). This poll screams “intensity gap” as this district is anchored by liberal towns of Santa Fe and Taos. In the end though Lujan will be able to pull it out. Heinrich leading is great news as districts like these team blue must keep in order to save the house from a total disastrous wave of more then 55+ seat losses. In the end he is likely to prevail as despite winning in 2008 he had a very legitimate and competent opponent in Darren White. Being from Las Cruces the seats closest to my heart are NM-02 and NM-Gov. Earlier I was very pessimistic about Teague’s chances but having talked with family back in the district Pearce has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way with his failed Senate run and now he is coming back for his old seat. A lot of moderate Republicans in Las Cruces are looking at it like Pearce wanted to use them as a stepping stone and Harry has actually done a good job (he voted no to HCR which gave him credibility on independence) so let’s keep him around. Denish is sinking due to her association with Bill Richardson, she is his Lt. Governor and people can’t vote against him so they are taking their anger out on her. I see this as narrowing but in the end Martinez is going to pull out a 3-5 point win.
I think the difference with the other polls is not enough.
I think this is a race for fight until the end. I glad of see the DGA helping D Denish for win, I decide help her too.