StephenCLE’s House Ratings – October 5

Well, we’re only 4 weeks away from the 2010 congressional and gubernatorial elections, crunch time if you will.  I have new picks for the Senate and Governor races, those you’ll probably get tomorrow or Thursday.  

House of representatives:

The generic ballot appears to have stabilized, as a lot of favorable numbers for Team Red have come out in the last week.  Newsweek had the Dems up 5, Gallup the Reps up 13, so those two basically cancel.  The majority of polling has the Reps up about 3-5% or thereabout, ahead of the 2-3% last week, so several house races moved into the red column as a result, and many more moved into the red direction.  The house balance is now teetering more than it was a week ago, with the Republicans just barely away (which if you think about it, could be Team Blue’s worst nightmare, as Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, Dan Boren, or any few conservadems could move to force Pelosi out of the speakership).  The full rating changes and big board are below.  Beginning this week, I have divided my toss up column into toss up/tilt republican and toss up/tilt democratic, a split that will remain until the election.  

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 220 Democrats, 215 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +36

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (40) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WV-1, WI-7

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-1, CO-3, GA-8, OH-16, TX-23, WV-1, WI-7

Republican to Democrat –

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+13

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+10

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+4

The Map:

Ratings changes for period September 28-October 4:

1.Minnesota-8 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – A poll came out a few days ago from POS that showed this race a 3-point affair.  While I’m sure this poll was somewhat slanted, I don’t doubt that this district is competitive in a year in which incumbency isn’t as great an advantage as normal.  Plus, the district is only D+3 and moving rightward.  Oberstar had better watch out.  

2.New York-20 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – DCCC polling has this as a 13-point race, which moves it back onto the board a week after it became safe for Scott Murphy.  Still, I don’t feel as if he’s all that endangered.  

3.Maine-1 – Likely Dem to Solid Dem – Backed by a multitude of polling showing her in safe territory, Chellie Pingree appears to be out of the woods.

4.California-47 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Some poor campaigning and increased turnout projection in the Vietnamese bloc of this district has put Loretta Sanchez into an uncomfortable position.  I still think she’s ahead, but she can’t make any more gaffes.  

5.Georgia-2 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Same deal for Sanford Bishop, but instead of bad comments made, for him it’s a potential ethics issue that is hurting his candidacy.  I don’t know a lot about the scholarship deal, but this is the kind of year where any kind of stench can defeat a democrat, especially in a swing district like this one.  

6.North Carolina-7 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – With Richard Burr pulling way ahead of Elaine Marshall, plus SUSA showing this race very close, I have no choice but to downgrade this one.  McIntyre had better be on his best game here the rest of the way because this one has the potential to move way rightward before election day.  

7.Arizona-1 – Lean Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Republican – This is a move I should have made last week, as polling came out showing Ann Kirkpatrick locked in a very tight contest with Paul Gosar.  The atmosphere in Arizona right now has stayed very republican, contrary to what I thought would happen after SB1070.  McCain and Brewer are going to romp here, so Kirkpatrick is in a tough spot despite weak opposition.

8.Iowa-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – The atmosphere in Iowa is perhaps one of the single most toxic for democrats in the whole country, and independent republican groups just decided to drop a cool million against Bruce Braley as the head of AFF is running for state senate in Iowa here, or something like that.  The money puts this one into greater viability, but I’m moving this one more because of Grassley and Branstad’s potentially huge coattails.  

9.Iowa-2 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Same deal with Dave Loebsack, who is actually not leading by much if you believe internal polling from Marianne Miller-Meeks, his republican opponent.  This is the most democratic district in Iowa though.

10.Indiana-9 – Leans Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – This one is more a national move and a hunch than anything else.  The news from the ground in IN-9 concerns me a bit.  I figure polling here would show a very close race here anyhow.  Dan Coats is going to romp here in the Senate race, which will help Young out against Hill.  

11.Wisconsin-8 – Leans Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – The environment in Wisconsin didn’t look too bad until about 2 weeks ago, when the bottom totally fell out on Russ Feingold in the Senate race.  That’s hurt Kagen, who will have to deal with the upballot coattails of Ron Johnson and Scott Walker as well as his republican opposition.

12.Alabama-2 – Toss Up/Tilt Democratic to Leans Dem – Six months ago, I thought Bobby Bright was dead in the water in this R+16 district, but with him basically voting like a republican and him campaigning on his voting with Boehner 80% of the time, I guess that’s good enough for the voters there.  Oh well, I guess a 20% democrat is better than 0%.

13.Colorado-4 – Toss Up/Tilt Republican to Leans Rep – With the Senate race moving away from Team Blue, I’m more convinced that CO is just like NH, with it’s highly independent electorate destined to go republican this year and that the governor’s race is good just because it isn’t a 1v1.  For Markey, who’s stuck in largely republican territory, that means big trouble.  

14.Florida-24 – Toss Up/Tilt Republican to Leans Rep – Obama’s plan for NASA I think really screwed over Kosmas as this district is very much dependent on that particular agency.  It’s hard to imagine her getting around that in this kind of environment, one that seems to be moving rightward in Florida thanks to Marco Rubio’s growing lead in the Senate race.

15.New Hampshire-2 – Leans Rep to Toss Up/Tilt Republican – Kuster has been running fairly strongly since winning the democratic nomination, and the last few polls only have her a few points behind Bass.  This could end up being a close one in the end.  Ayotte will probably win here, but so will Lynch, so coattails will cancel each other.

16.Pennsylvania-6 – Likely Rep to Leans Rep – Something strange is going on in Pennsylvania, and I can’t put my finger on it.  The state looks bad as a whole, but some republican incumbents like Dent and Pitts are struggling, and with as strong a campaign as Minan Trivedi is running, it wouldn’t surprise me if this race has moved a bit on Gerlach.  I’d like to see some polling here for sure.  

17.Washington-8 – Likely Rep to Leans Rep – Susan Delbene has closed the gap on Dave Reichert in polling, prompting this rating change.  The district leans democratic as a whole, so even in a year like this, Reichert has to be on his toes.  

18.Colorado-3 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This is a cliffhanger race right now, but I think with Colorado moving somewhat rightward in the last two weeks, that Scott Tipton is now barely favored over John Salazar.  This is definitely one to watch.

19.Ohio-16 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Here’s another district where the race has been hard-fought and dirty between two relatively strong-armed candidates in Boccieri and Renacci.  With the Senate race falling out for Team Blue I’m putting Renacci in the lead, but again, this is going to be a fight all the way to the end.  

20.Texas-23 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – The republicans did a good job in the primary here, nominating a Hispanic that seems to have his stuff in order.  Canseco has been running relatively strong in polling as well, and with the governor’s race looking more of a longshot, I’m moving this one into the red column as well.  

21.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – It seems as though I move this seat every stinking update.  This move is prompted by Joe Manchin’s implosion in the Senate race.  WV is going to probably be a solid red state before too long the way things are going  there.

22.Wisconsin-7 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This was probably the toughest move of all.  I think Duffy is probably ahead right now, but in this democratic district come election day, I just don’t see undecideds going for the reality tv linchpin over the extremely competent state senator.  I do expect Lassa to close strong and win here, but to the red column for now.  

23.Georgia-8 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up Tilt R – This is more of a national move than anything else, but this is a district that is increasingly likely to flip as it appears that the democratic brand in Georgia is fairly toxic outside of Roy Barnes, who would be beating Nathan Deal for sure if it were not for the pesky “D” by his name.  

2010 House Big Board (as of October 5 update)

Solid Dem – 151 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 30 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 28 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 13 seats:

California-11 (McNerney)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 26 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-3 (Lungren)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 20 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 12 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1