Noted idiot and asshole Mark Penn is out with a dozen polls testing embattled frosh Dems from around the country. Let’s crack this sucker open.
Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill and “America’s Natural Gas Alliance” (dates unknown, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):
AZ-01:
Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): 39
Paul Goasar (R): 46
CO-04:
Betsy Markey (D-inc): 41
Cory Gardner (R): 44
IL-11:
Debbie Halvorson (D-inc): 31
Adam Kinzinger (R): 49
MD-01:
Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 40
Andy Harris (R): 43
MI-07:
Mark Schauer (D-inc): 41
Tim Walberg (R): 41
NV-03:
Dina Titus (D-inc): 44
Joe Heck (R): 47
NM-02:
Harry Teague (D-inc): 42
Steve Pearce (R): 46
OH-15:
Mary Jo Kilroy (D-inc): 38
Steve Stivers (R): 47
OH-16:
John Boccieri (D-inc): 39
Jim Renacci (R): 42
PA-03:
Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 36
Mike Kelly (R): 49
VA-02:
Glenn Nye (D-inc): 36
Scott Rigell (R): 42
VA-05:
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Rob Hurt (R): 45
Nothing lasts forever – even cold November rain.
Good god these are brutal. I think a 50+ Seat loss is very likely.
Nuff said.
I tend to agree with your assessment of Penn, but these numbers look reasonable. I’m actually a little surprised that he shows Perriello and Markey that close.
What’s up with Debbie Halvorson in IL-11. She won so convincingly over a decent opponent last time, and the district isn’t particularly red. Is there something she did, something special about Kinzinger, or is this just a particularly angry district? I expected this to be a tough fight, but I thought it would be a tossup right until election day.
Also, given some of the other numbers on here, the MD-01 and VA-05 results are fairly frustrating for Republicans. I still can’t believe the GOP was so eager to run Harris again.
The good news is that, Perriello, Markey and Schauer are still in this.
And his buddy Doug Schoen runs on Penn’s gas.
Question for SSPers – if Tom Perriello pulls out this victory, does the GOP have ANY chance of winning the House? Because, honestly, I believe that’s the must-win district for the Republicans.
The Navajo Nation elections are this year and one of them is running for statewide office too. That will definitely help her. Also, she’s a good campaigner.
I have all of these flipping. Actually, the numbers for VA-05 and MI-07 are the best I’ve seen yet.
Setting aside the Mark Penn-ness of it all… I’m feeling good about the MI-07 number.
Is tied at 41 good for an incumbent? No. But I’m still encouraged by a poll showing it neck-and-neck after a few from the summer showing a Walberg blowout.
I’ve got a lot of faith in Mark Schauer as a campaigner and in Tim Walberg as an idiot who’ll open his mouth (again).
I’ll be quite interested in next weeks set, which promises to be open seats (followed in the two weeks by two-term Dems then vulnerable long-timers.) I wonder if they are going to include any of the GOP open seats like FL-25, DE-AL and IL-10 or only Dem ones? I would hope that they do at least IL-10 if nothing else. I suspect that the open seats numbers might be even worse for the Dems. Any guesses as to what twelve they will be? WA-03, WI-07, MA-10 & PA-07 quickly spring to mind. Will they bother with the ones in AR and TN?
If only he was introduced this way in the press..
What were the lead questions before the major ask of candidate choice? Penn + those frakkers at the gas industry are not pushers of fairness, objectivity, and facts. There is an agenda to push a meme frosh dems are weak and look at our poll results which prove desired result.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
Kos just published the 2008 vote share and the ones that jump out at me are NM-02, NV-03, OH-15 and OH-16 as being huge Obama voter deficits. Clearly we won’t get the same type of turnout in 2010 as in 2008 but these are nearly 10% swings as far as vote percentages of likely voters. Cutting that advantage to even mid to high single digits can potentially save Harry Teague and Dina Titus for example as they seem to be pulling a fair amount of McCain voters to their side. I can only speak to NM-02 but it clearly shows the lack of Latino energy for Teague. I have written off OH-15 and OH-16 but these seem cases where if the top of the ticket is weak it is bound to hurt the down ballot races. Strickland and Fisher are hurting now although Strickland seems to be fighting back to some extent.
MI-07 seems to be an overly generous Democratic sample but I haven’t followed that race much. Does that make sense?
… if I believe these results or not. I have questions that will help me determine if I believe them. Does the pollster weight the simple random samples? If so, then how?
In determining what is a likely voter, does the pollster ask if the respondents voted in previous general elections?
Or is the LV screening just what’s in the memos: Asking if the respondent is likely to vote in the upcoming election?
Are the partisan, gender, age, race demographics of the samples reasonable for the districts or the upcoming election?
Are there any answers to these questions here that I am just not seeing?
Why is Mark Penn an idiot and an asshole again?
… is NV-03.
Dina Titus, with good poll numbers and good fundraising, it behind Joe Heck?
Really?